It's that time again faggots. As always, I'll help
The stories and information posted here are artistic works of fiction and falsehood.
Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.
Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.
It's that time again faggots.
As always, I'll help you out by giving you the answer.
>you double your chance to win by switching
Now argue relentlessly even though there is only one correct answer.
>INB4
I'm a Muslim
The other door has a goats ass
But I want a goat
you dont double your chances, you will go from 33 1/3% chance to win to a 50% chance to win
Seems legit.
Switching is the better choice
>>714756912
Explain how you can have a 50% chance from a choice of three?
You stay or else you go from 100 to 0
Why would the host want to increase your chances?
>>714756912
You go from 1/3, to 2/3 by switching.
There can never be a 50% outcome from a choice out of three.
>>714756912
This anon is correct.
This is an argument that's used for mathematical realism pretty frequently because, one would assume, your original choice has no bearing on the overall outcome if one of the other choices is eliminated. However, it has been validated empirically that switching gives you a better chance of getting the big prize.
This is known as the Monty Hall problem.
The Monty hall problem. Everyone already knows the answer. Try harder faggot.
>>714757035
Because youve changed the sample size to two, whereas your first pick was when there were three.
>>714757406
Lol, my dad doesn't.
He was trying to give me this fatherly sage wisdom and explained why "you should never switch to door #2" or whatever. I couldn't help but laugh inside.
My dad is cool but doesn't know shit about money.
Also, I'm pretty impressed with /b/ getting this correct.
>>714757321
>I readed the words
>but too hard for looking at image and reading those words too.
>I liek chocolate
what does switching doors mean?
>>714756912
Wrong. If you switch everytime then the only time you lose is if you picked the case on your first guess, which has a 1/3 chance. So there is 1-1/3 chance you will win by switching.
>>714757035
Is all /b/ seriously this retarded?
>>714757395
Everything you said is corrwct except for the first line.
> This anon is correct.
That anon is incorrect
You almost had it
>>714757610
like in the image after the host has opened nr 3 .. you'd switch to nr 2 instead of staying with pre selected nr1
>>714757406
> Everyone already knows the answer
How wrong you are on that.
Lurk the thread and see for yourself
>>714757620
That makes sense
>>714757436
That's wrong.
First choice was 1/3, meaning the prize is 2/3 behind a door you did not choose.
Now there is only one door left you did not choose.
Removing a door cant go back in time and change the odds of your first choice
>>714757623
Irony personified
>>714757838
Congratulations, you've won a goat. I recommend learning the monty hall problem.
13/10 for making me reply. For the people who don't understand in stats it's explained that the odds of you picking the right door the first time are 33%. The game show host knows what's behind every door and for drama, he's going to show you one that DOES NOT have the prize. Therefore it's saying that you have no idea, but the host does, therefore he leaves the prize for you and that's why you should switch. However, if for some reason you chose the right door the first time then no, this does not work. I always think of deal or no deal to help better explain this.
Question:
I understand the idea that the first choice is 1/3 and the second is 1/2 so you have a better chance by switching. It makes perfect sense.
However, assuming the cars/goats are randomly distributed, by selecting to stay, surely you are still making a 50/50 choice? If the host has revealed a goat behind a door, you now have a 1 in 2 chance of picking the correct door - it doesn't matter which you pick if it's random, both doors give a 50/50 chance?
Further, there's the totally unmathematical and unscientific annoyance factor to consider. How badly would you beat yourself up if you correctly picked from 1/3 and then switched out to a losing selection. When gambling, simply playing odds isn't necessarily the only way to go.
>>714757623
So you can answer the question then?
Come on Mr NotRetarded...
Your answer will be wrong by the way.
You may or may not understand this if you stay until the thread dies.
it's simple but it's a paradox so I'll explain to anon's unfamiliar with this.
When you pick the first time you have a 1/3 chance of winning.
one door is opened, showing a goat.
if you don't switch, you still only have a 33% chance. You knew there was at least one goat so nothing has changed.
IF you change your answer to the only other choice, it becomes 66%.
This problem takes advantage of a weakness in human logic.
>>714757620
This is right, everything else is just fucking stupid
>>714757955
What you say makes no sense.
You are a dumb cunt.
>telling OP to learn Monty Hall problem.
Either you completely misunderstood the post you're replying to, you replied to the wrong post, or you're a retard.
what kind of stupid lottery is that? goat or car? fucking retarded. also it's 50/50 chance, I just coded a game based on OP's facts, and played 1000 times. Answer is approx 50/50.
>>714758084
Retard
>>714758129
There's no paradox.
It's factual mathematics.
1/3 vs 2/3
>>714758235
Not fifty fifty. Go be stupid somewhere else, it's pathetic.
>>714758235
nope.
You're lying.
![images[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/A0BWO3N.jpg "images[1].jpg")
>>714757321
This anon has a point. You only increase your chances if you know the host was going to open a door regardless of your choice.
Make sure to look him over carefully, for he may be Sicilian. In this case he knows that you're aware of the monty hall problem, and that you know you should switch if he opens a door. Therefore he knows that you have originally picked the correct door and opens a wrong door to get you to pick!
>>714758367
It's a paradox dumb faggot.
It includes a counterintuitive outcome.
>>714758372
I am not. I can upload that game.
>>714758235
You coded the hosts choice as random because you're a dumb cunt, or you are lying
>>714758400
Inconceivable!
im gonna /theard this theard
>>714758463
i coded as OP explained. retard.
>>714758235
Post the code, I will fix it for you
>>714758420
Paradox doesn't mean counterintuitive.
Counterintuitive means counterintuitive.
Paradox means something else entirely.
>calling others dumb faggots
>is a dumb faggot
I wish you could feel the embarrrasssment you earned, but I know you wont
>>714758535
yes. give me your e-mail
>>714758458
Other people have made the game you claim to have made.
Also as a gambler I can tell you with certainty short of playing millions of times you can't tell the odds that quickly.
>>714758615
Look up the definition of the word, come back, apologize.
>>714758530
Then you either fucked.it.up, or youre.lying.
Stop lying or being a shit coder.
>>714758129
so just because it's unintuitive to you it's a paradox?
I went to a convenience store a little while ago looking for a corkscrew. They didn't have one. I thought they should carry them. Is that a paradox?
>>714758482
Thank you, i've been trying to wrap my head around it and now it makes perfect sense to me.
>>714758670
fuck you nigger.
>>714758639
>NO U
but seriously... No, You look it up, because you're wrong, and that's not what paradox means
>>714757838
Youre making a second choice whether to switch to door 2 or stay with 1.
Or would you try our luck and switch to door no.3 now that you actually saw the goat? The second decision is 50:50
>>714758674
No that's stretching the definition of counter intuitive.
If you went to a corkscrew store and they only sold hamburgers and milk, that'd be a paradox.
>>714758701
You dirty nigger fucker.
Gtfo out of this thread you lying shitcoder
>>714758619
Post screen shot
>>714758619
No, post it here, so we all can laugh at you.
>>714758736
a : a statement that is seemingly contradictory or opposed to common sense and yet is perhaps true
Now you have to suck my cock because I had to look it up for you.
>>714758754
If you chose the car first, (1/3) switching loses.
If you chose a goat first, (2/3)
Switching wins.
You see how switching wins 2/3?
>>714756697
you stay the course
the host wants you to pick a goat, otherwise he wouldntve revealed the other goat before letting you pick again
>>714758851
no. i want some money. 5 dollars per game?
>>714759098
Do you want help or not mate?
>>714758860
Oh...
So you meant a non mathematics or scientific paradox, even though the question is purely mathematic.
According to your definition, that itself was a paradox.
>>714759133
I don't like people call me liar for no reason.
>>714759080
Read the words in the image you fucktard
>>714759160
Its' not purely mathematic.
Now suck my cock.
>>714759098
Are you the CEO of Digital Homicide? Fuck off.
>thinking a Monty Hall sim is worth 5 dollars
Please, please, please, PLEASE, for the love of God, be a troll.
>>714758482
Ive seen this thread a thousand times. Why didnt anyone post this sooner? That makes sense.
>>714759178
Nobody did.
They called you a liar because you were lying.
The reason for that is because what you claim to have done cannot possibly give the result you claim, hence you are lying, or fucked up what you attempted
>>714759178
This is b, you should have expected all kinds of responses. The reason people didn't believe you was because you've obviously made some kind of mistake
>>714759178
Then post. your. fucking. code.
>>714759302
>You dirty nigger fucker.
>Gtfo out of this thread you lying shitcoder
Somebody said these to me
>>714759252
>Monty Hall problem isn't purely mathematic.
You're a dumb cunt, but I'll suck your dick 10 times as often as your girlfriend does...
> retard gets zero cocksucking.
If only I said 10x as much as you dad does.
>>714759372
Troll confirmed
>>714759372
Welcome to 4chan.
Grow some skin, faggot.
AND POST YOUR CODE, GODDAMMIT!
>>714759372
I said "these" to you.
I'm OP and it's my thread you faggot.
Stop talking shit and nobody would call you a faggot
>>714759339
I am not sending it to you. perhaps You should apologize. THEN i send it to you.
>>714759372
Seriously what did you expect? This is 4chan man
>>714758482
Stop, stop, stop.
This is all nonsense and bollocks.
The doors have no 'memory'. At the start, you hvae a 1/3 chance of winning. After the first door is revealed you only have a 1/2 chance, a 50/50 chance of winning.
SWITCHING MAKES NO DIFFERENCE.
>>714759197
why would the host encourage you to switch if you first picked a goat? you fucktard
>>714759559
Hahaha hahaha hahaha
Everyone laugh at the retard
Hahaha
>>714759585
It's a probability problem you idiot
>>714757368
somehow this confuses people
>>714759559
hahahaha
>>714759559
what's behind the doors is random before you pick your first door, then remains constant.
In essence, that's 'memory'.
>>714757620
This is incorrect, and it is a common fallacy well known in statistics literature.
Assume you got the first door correct. Clearly, this only happens with 1/3 chance.
Then, the presenter opens a door revealing a goat. Clearly, There is 1/2 probability that the third door contains a goat. Now, two things can happen:
A) you don't switch the door. In this case your winning probability increases, from 1/3 to 1/3+1/2, that is, 3/4.
B) you switch the door. In this case, your probability actually decreases, from 1/3 to 1/3-1/2, that is, -1.
Never switch the door.
>>714759559
por thing.
>>714759808
Haha. Take your bullshit somewhere else.
There is not a 1/2 chance a goat is behind the third door. The original post is right, you are wrong.
>>714757620
This also explains it clearly
>>714759557
1. Post your code
2. Accept apology if there's nothing wrong with the code.
3. ???
4. PROFIT!
Or:
1. Don't post your code.
2. Be called a faggot liar.
3. GTFO
>>714759808
This is bait
>>714759681
no, its a host in a tv show trying to scam you problem
it says there is a host in the problem you idiot
>>714759997
There is obviously something wrong with the code
>>714759978
WTF are you talking about? Are you even able to count?
> 3 doors
> presenter reveals a goat
> 2 doors left
> 1 contains a goat, 1 contains a car
How does this not reach 50% probability, you dumbass???
>>714760095
Dude, if there was any code to begin with, we'd have seen it by now.
>>714759808
you know this made no fucking sense.
there is a 2/3 chance your first choice is a goat. if one goat is then eliminated the chance that you picked the goat hasn't changed so by changing your pick it is 2/3 chance that you switch to the car.
Abandon thread. Nothing left but retards and trolls
>>714760147
BECAUSE IT'S THREE DOORS TO BEGIN WITH.
It would be a 50/50 chance if the host would reveal a goat first and only then let you pick a door.
FUCK.
>>714759585
The host doesn't encourage you to do anything.
The host ALWAYS opens a goat door no matter what you do.
This problem has been discussed many times and yeah, there is a wikipedia article about it.
Still, it is simply wrong. You don't got from 1/3 to 2/3 chance, really. This is just theory and not reality.
>>714760202
That's only partially correct: it is true that there is 2/3 probability to pick up a goat at the beginning. But, after the presenter opens the door, you have to account for the fact that the probability is "reset" to the new scenario. After all, as you said, your frist choice does not change the outcome.
Consider this: what if, instead of 3 doors and 1 car, there were 10000 doors and 9998 cars? After the presenter opens a door, would you actually switch?
Your choices are GGC, you have a 1/3 chance at winning.
If you choose the first G, then the host, who already knows where the prize is, has to show you the other G. You switch and you win the car.
The situation is the same for the second G, the host knows where the car is and has to show you the other goat and you again, you win by switching your door. Only if you actually pick the car will switching the door win you a goat. The chances of winning by switching is thereby 2/3.
>>714760254
Dear Einstein, consider this: what if, instead of 3 doors and 1 car, there were 10000 doors and 9998 cars? After the presenter opens a door, would you actually switch?
Also, this.
>>714760226
>>714760492
False equivalency.
It'd have to be 10,000 doors and 1 car.
He opens 9998 goat doors then asks if you want to switch.
Let me explain this very easily.
So, you have 3 doors. You pick a door. So your choices were one out of 3 or 33%. The Host acts as a proxy and opens a door. Then your choices are 2 out of 3 or 66% to stay.
What throws people is the scale. Consider there were 100 doors. The host opens every door but leaves 2 doors unopened. The one you picked, and another one. The fact the host opened allllllllllllll those other doors means that the host was acting as a proxy and informing you that it is very likely your door the one with a car behind it. So the math still works if he opens 100 doors or 1 door. Just that the more the doors and he more doors he opens sway the odds further in your favor. Be it 1, 10, 100, or a million.
>>714760147
Because the host knows where the car is and wouldn't show you the car.
You can easily spot that the answer is wrong with the following experiment.
Let's say there are 11 doors with 9 goats and 2 cars. You pick a door and the host open ups 1 car and 5 goats. Would you switch? No, clearly not.
>>714760631
George bush did 9/11
Fuck.
I've made this thread so many times and always get a good laugh from it, but this time is something else entirely.
It's not even an argument...
There's 26 posters, and 2 of them are me/OP
It seems majority understand it,and there's a handful of fAggots making nonsense arguments that arent even funny, they're so bad.
I'll make a new thread later when Americans are awake...
This thread goes so much better when Americans are awake.
>>714760696
You idiot. One can even reverse it and it's still true. So let's calculate 13 doors with 9 cars and 4 goats.
You pick a door and the host opens 3 cars and 2 goats. Would you switch? No. Or you are stupid.
>>714759559
Its called the monty hall problem.
https://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
play it if you don't believe it.
The more times you play, the numbers will continually favor you if you stay. And it will continue to give you a lower score if you switch. By the time you play 100 times. If you stay everytime. You should score around 66.
If you switch everytime, your score should be close to 33.
>>714756697
Why is everyone here so retarded? Your odds don't change at all. You can stay at that door or switch and your odds are still exactly the same. I can't stand it
>>714760492
>consider this: what if, instead of 33.3% cance to pick a car first, there was a 99.98% to pick a car first?
The fuck is your point?
But what if to me winning is getting a goat or a car? I would have a 100% chance of winning
Also check 'em
>>714759997
apologize first.
>>714761046
I hope you get raped to death by an elephant with erectile dysfunction
>>714760576
What are you talking about? 10000 doors and 1 car would be impossible to win in any case! The real analogue is that there must always be two goats.
>>714760928
>The fuck is your point?
OMG how can you be so retarded?
>>714758235
there already is a game from a university with results..
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/cgi-bin/MontyKnows/monty2?2+12372
>>714760820
>nonono, if you stay, you win 66% of the time
>want proof? here's a page showing that you win 66% of the time is you switch.
This gotta be bait.
>>714760974
You got inb4'd, and also said "check 'em"
You are cancer.
Pls be an hero
>>714760358
the problem doesnt say that
it only says he opens it that specific time, not EVERY TIME
reading comprehension, yeah?
>>714761290
>OMG how can you be so retarded?
Are you asking me if I'd switch if my fist chance of winning is already 100%? I don't get it....
>>714761290
> 10000 doors and 1 car would be impossible to win in any case!
The host then opens 9999 doors you didn't choose.
So you stick with the door you chose, even though there's a 9999/10000 chance you were wrong, and now there's only one door left you didn't choose.
You are literally choosing 1/10000, when switching would give you 9999/10000
That's retarded
>>714761606
What the fuck.
Specific time?
The rules are clear.
You're retarded
>>714761606
Only when the host opens a door at 12:27pm does the door ALWAYS not having the prize behind it matter.
>specific time
>>714756697
lol gross
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44PDjTA6lyQ
>>714762536
Didn't watch your shitty video.
The title told me it was complete nonsense.
You'd fit in well with the 4 morons in this thread
>>714761606
God dammit.
There are three doors. The host knows where everything is. You pick a door. The host must show you a goat behind the one two remaining doors. It's that fucking simple.
>>714756697
since he revealed one of the goats there's only 2 doors left with either goat or shiny car. 50% i switch so I double it to 100%
the question is if I see it as a win to get a goat or a car.. what's my ethnicity?
>>714759559
I hope for the sake on mankind that this is bait.
It's scary how many idiots still think it's a 50/50 chance.
>>714758085
i am not that faggot but one of the doors is already revealed so now it is just a choice between two doors, 50%
>>714763238
Your first dumb was wrong, and your second dumb was INB4'd at the beginning of the thread.
Congratulations... You're a dumb cunt.
>>714763590
It's not already revealed....
It's revealed AFTER.
That's a significant difference.
>>714763644
ooooh i read it wrong, it's not an added premise, it's just the solution
>>714763590
>I'm not that same faggot
>says same shit
Either you are, or you're just as dumb as the faggot you aren't.
>>714757838
god you're fucking dumb. no one is changing the odds of your first choice, we are talking about the odds of the second choice which doors, stay or switch. did you even fucking look at the picture?
>>714763964
This implies you.might actually understand, but that's kind sketchy unless you explain it.
>>714764031
If the odds of the first choice don't change, which is 1/3, that means it's 2/3 the prize was NOT chosen.
That means 2/3 the prize is behind a door not chosen.
Opening one of those doors doesn't change those odds.
This is super simple stuff if you calm down from rage insulting people and actually think about it calmly.
>>714764031
Pls be an hero
We assume the length of the goat and that the rooms are one.
>>714756697
Bring it bitch.
You open one door, it becomes a FACT that there is a goat behind it, probability collapses.
Read "update of information" - logicians tried a lot of mental gymnastics to save the failed problem you try to wave your dick with.
TL;DR Get fucked brainlet
Neither door. How the fuck do you fit a car through a doorway?
>>714757395
>However, it has been validated empirically that switching gives you a better chance of getting the big prize.
>validated empirically
Care to share the study?
Would you like me to do the 1-3 post number experiment for everyone OP?
You can be the host and decide which door the car is behind.
>>714763106
it doesnt say he must it just says he does, you stupid faggot why am i even wasting my time, jesus christ kys
>>714762043
EVERY TIME HE FUCKING DOES THE SHOW, YOU FUCKIGN MORON, HES A FUCKIGN HOST, YOU THINK HES GONNA RUN JUST 1 EPISODE? FUCK YOU'RE RETARDED
whats all the contreversy about, i thought we were over the monty hall problem lmao
bunch of fucking aspies in this thread, i swear to god
>>714758482
No you fag
This is the true pic
1/4 each possibility, pair of same outcomes the answer is 1/2
>tfw too intelligent for Monty
>>714765342
Your interpretation suggests a 50% chance of choosing the car first time, retard
>all these spineless faggots changing their opinion because someone tells you that you are wrong
The correct answer is OP is a faggot and running you dumbasses through troll city. No matter what you say, you will be wrong regardless of the true answer. It's the same as the math ones. It's just like the game. The only way to win is to never play at all.
>>714764665
>inb4'd>>714764863
>>714764947
By following the rules dictated in the OP pic.
>>714765661
>I can't count four arrows and add the same ones up
like shit, you retards actually think the host wants to give away the prizes, like "see you next week, o wait nvm we ran out of prizes because we're fucking retarded"
>>714765661
The first time = after door is opened
You are deluded by the problem's time delay trick. "First time" as you put it and the final reveal are unrelated as the pic puts it.
>>714765202
Retard
>>714765342
So you pick a car first,switching loses.
Pick a goat first, switching wins.
Your pic confirms majority of this threads opinion, reality, and fun.
Switching wins 2/3
>>714756697
Aight lets see if I can clear this up for you idiots who still do not understand that switching is the best option.
>Assume 100 doors instead of 3
>Pick a door
>Host opens 98 doors that do not have the car inside
>Chances of picking the car before the reveal?
>1%
>Chances that your pick was a goat?
>99%
>After the reveal, the chances of your initial pick being a goat is still 99%
>Chances that the one door left is a car?
>99%
>So always fucking switch
>>714767147
Look at the problem again.
Picking at 1st in unrelated to the result, it does not carry over because we're talking about two different probability spaces.
Just look at where the arrow starts and ends, that's your pick. The beginning is a ruse.
>>714767311
What arrow?
Stop posting drunk kevin
>>714767454
>I can't follow links
The pic here >>714765342
>>714767585
There is 6 arrows in that 3 option pictobullshit.
In the first option, it's shows the possibilities for both potential.goat reveals, and counts that as 2, which is wrong because the host would only ever reveal one.
When you have to make up bullshit to prove your point, all you prove is that your point is bullshit
>>714756697
Always swith. 1/3 chance of getting it right in ffirst scenario. 1/2 in second. Staying with original choice preserves 1/3.
>>714768110
> 1/3 chance of getting it right in ffirst scenario. 1/2 in second
1/3+1/2=10/10
0.333...+0.5=1
This is clearly incorrect.
>>714767970
Okay let's walk through this step by step:
1) Initial case: 3 doors 1/3 car 2/3 goat
2) A door is opened.
3) When the goat is revealed behind that door, it's probability becomes 100% goat from 1/3 goat.
Now, explain to me how your probability knowledge accounts this change? I assure you this is a very demanding logic problem.
In your case, you simply toss this change aside while KEEPING THE INITIAL PROBABILITIES CONSTANT.
>Pick a door - 33.3...% chance to land on the prize.
>66.6...% chance to land on a goat.
>You are more likely to initially select a goat.
>The host reveals a goat door out of the two you did not select.
>YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO FAVE INITIALLY SELECTED A GOAT.
>Therefore, switching is more likely to produce a prize than not.
>whole archives of game show results using this gimmick reflect this.
>Monty Hall Problem
>>714768383
I'll explain.
Imagine you had a friend.
He puts 3 cups on a table and put a coin under one if them.
>you don't know where the coin is.
He asks you to pick a cup at random.
It doesn't matter what you pick, the coin is where it is, and it doesn't move or change based on any choice you make.
Surely based in that you can see there is no change.
>>714768838
Yet, you conveniently omitted the part where your friend pulls up an empty cup :^)
>>714768838
See, the environment changes. Not the cup that contains the coin, but it's environment. Or the world, as logicians would state.
>>714769115
So you're suggesting revealing an empty cup changes what was under the unrevealed cups?
>>714769363
No.
Everything you said is wrong.
>>714769363
I'll add to this:
Intuition is very important in understanding the issue here. You may know that all the magic tricks, or illusions, require your attention to a certain point while the trick happens elsewhere out of your sight. The exact same goes here, you are trying to calculate the switch while the trickery is the revealing of the goat. The problem falls into pieces right there.
>>714769614
Very convincing argument there.
>>714756697
always switch
>>714769552
Yes. The probability of the remaining doors should update. Two different worlds (or problems as you'd call it).
Don't switch. Because you're a sandnigger and want to fuck the goat
>>714769694
Fact is not an argument.
It's fact.
>>714769827
The only way probability can change is if the prize moves.
Unless magic is real, that obviously cannot happen
>>714769827
How does you friend flipping a cup change where the coin is?
ok, so i'm going to believe that many anons here aren't trolling and really don't understand why switching increases the odds to 2/3, because in fact it isn't so intuitive.
the thing you have to consider is that the host KNOWS where the car is. he DOESN'T OPEN AN UNCHOSEN DOOR AT RANDOM (or else he could reveal the car, defeating the purpose of the "switch deal"). so, if the car is behind one of the other doors (2/3 probability), he is GIVING YOU INFORMATION. that is the essence of the reason why switching doors increases your odds to 2/3. now shut the fuck up and think about this and look the images and numerical demonstrations other anons have posted until you understand
also: http://www.math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
>>714771341
You're referring to people that have no concept of social interaction, and jerk off to underage cartoon girls...
You should be more surprised if they understood anything
>>714770711
Word.
>>714770861
If, the system contained one door with the prize behind it, that would be true.
When you tamper with the initial conditions you change the chances. It's two different observations:
1) 3 doors with 1/3 car and 2/3 goat
2) 2 doors with 1/2 car and 1/2 goat AND 1/1 goat (two separate worlds here don't get caught up, tree branches)
>>714771112
He does not. He pulls a cup that doesn't contain a coin under from the table. Not the one that contains the coin.
>>714771341
>he is GIVING YOU INFORMATION. that is the essence of the reason why switching doors increases your odds to 2/3.
There you go. Now this is the juicy part.
Tell me: why wouldn't the 1/3 chance removed from the system be shared equally among the remaining 1/3 chances? There has to be some logic behind you completely shifting it over to the 1/3 goat right?
>>714771341
>>714772188
To add: he knows where the car is, but the information he gives is not related to the car. So as the observer it means fuck all to your car aspirations.
Read de Finetti's exchangable observations. "Independent and identically distributed" part especially.
>>714771929
> If, the system contained one door with the prize behind it, that would be true.
So it's true then.
You can't tamper with initial conditions AFTER initial choices.
Those choices ARE initial conditions.
So you're saying whatever was chosen in the first choice never changes...
That means switching gives you 2/3 chance to get the prize.
>>714771929
Your first reply is perfect and beyond argument...
Then you kept going.
Pic related you dumb cunt
>>714772395
Why is it the dumbest people always think they're the smartest?
>>714772427
Well here's where you're getting it wrong.
There may be multiple initial states where the problem resets as it's happening here. You open the door - you set the probability of the goat to 100%. That's end of problem one.
Now as anon states you are given an information. But what no one can prove (or if there is a proof send it my way) is the logic behind adding the removed 1/3 goat chance onto the remaining 1/3 goat.
Don't wake this anon up, he's moving himself over to my higher ground. Even posting screenshots of my replies lel>>714772676
>>714772794
>>714772817
> Well here's where you're getting it wrong.
The car is behind whatever door it is behind.
Nothing "resets" that.
It's actually there.
It cant magically move.
>>714772953
The cringe is real
>>714772953
my only post was >>714771341
i won't add any more shit to this, you have to make an effort to understand it by yourself.
the link posted has the game and stats proving it, if you don't believe
>>714773026
Exactly, but it's environment moves. Probability is a question of one outcome with respect to remaining outcomes. If you change the remaining outcome, is your target outcome affected by it?
Here's a very stupid analogy. You're betting a sports game. There are three outcomes because >divegrass, and the odds are set at 1/3. Yet the referee decides there won't be a draw that day because it's knock-out. Does the probability of a team winning or losing changes?
I would say it would.
>>714773420
>stats proving it
Oh boy this is amazing.
>>714772953
> Lelelelelelelelelelelelelelelelelelelelelel
You got quotes because you are an idiot that doesn't understand the question, and refuses to accept the answer even though it's been made clear many times in this thread so far.
You can stop pretending now, let out all the huehues you're dying to type.
>>714773820
Your butthurt will be palpable when I'll publish a refutation of your pathetic problem. I'll return for your tears :^)
>>714773492
> Exactly, but it's environment moves
Reality moves around the cups and somehow changes where the coin is....
Think about that for a second you stupid fuck.
>>714774029
You'll publish a refutation if mathematic fact?
No you won't.
Stop talking shit you dumb faggot.
>>714774053
Buddy, I'm sorry to say this but you have problems with reading comprehension. I've said over 9000 times that the coin stays where it is. That's not the issue.
>>714774170
>mathematic fact
Post the proof or gtfo faggit
>>714774170
Also read Russell's Paradox and Gödel's incompleteness theorem. Educate yourself.
>>714774240
Then there is a 2/3 chance you didn't choose the coin.
That means switching gives you 2/3 chance.
Surely we can trust the faggot that claims he said something 9000 times
>>714774286
Look up "monty hall problem"
>>714774345
Fact is fact you moron.
You're only further embarrassing yourself by posting shit like that.
>>714774445
>(See: reading comprehension)
>>714774548
>problem
>proof
Tickles my senses really
>>714774654
But what is a fact? Is it defined through itself? Then what is not a fact? Not a fact is not a fact?
Bravo anon. X = X. Babby's first axiom.
>>714756697
open door number 3
>>714768838
>Imagine you had a friend.
:'(
>>714775215
/thread
>>714774708
Being a retard tickles your senses?
You dense fucker.
>choose 1/3
>host ALWAYS opens a door you DIDN'T choose.
Your first choice was 1/3, that means 2/3 you were wrong.
Host reveals a for you didn't choose.
Only one door left you didn't choose.
2/3 your first choice was wrong.
1/3 You chose right, 2/3 You chose wrong.
How can you not grasp this concept you dumb cunt?
>>714774875
Fact is something objectively undeniable
Your post makes no sense.
Inb4 what is objective
Kill yourself now before the hole gets any deeper.
Hold up I have a perfect idiot proof explanation for this. I'm not going to use fancy math like a fag, I'm going to use words like a man. See the problem with you guys is that you're trying to use math for this but you suck at math so you get the wrong answer.
Anyways 3 doors. 2 goats, 1 car right?
You have a 66 percent chance of choosing a goat door and you pick a door at random so you probably picked the goat door right? Lets assume you choose the goat door (and you likely did). The announcer then reveals one of the Unchoosen doors and it is the other goat. (he will never reveal the car door) So the other door must be the car, if you assume that the door you selected in the beginning was a goat, which you should assume because you had a 66 percent chance of picking a goat door, thus there is a 66 percent chance of the unrevealed, unchoosen door being a car.
Yer welcome.
>>714775890
>Tautology is objectively undeniable
You are confusing tautology with fact. Yes, tautology is, under classical logic, valid and sound.
>>714775446
>Your first choice was 1/3
Look! Your subconscious is screaming the problem in terms of Freudian slips but your brain is too foggy to see it. What a shame.
>>714776077
>pic related
What you've been doing.
>>714776077
Retard doesn't understand greentext
Nobody said that you stupid faggot
>>714777002
>>714776855
>>714776199
>>714776077
what the fuck are you guys doing, I already ended this thread over here >>714775995
>>714776077
Capped for cringe threads
>>714777101
They're being modern /b/
>>714776855
>has to look up the definition of tautology
>still fails to look it up from proper sources
it should be hard living as a brainlet..
>>714777101
no thread ended here >>714775215
>>714756697
Yeupp you're right
1/3 change first try
1/2 chance second try
EZ MATH
>>714777703
NO, you're garbage. look here for the answer >>714775995
>>714777469
Calm down Timmy.
Mommy will.feed you tended soon enough.
Kinda.funny you're that triggered about being wrong that you resort to stupid shit like this.
Is this the wrong side of the thread the whole time, but that guys funny cos he screenshot a definition of a word because I tries using that word to detract from the fa t that I was a fucking retard the entire thread.
Keep going faggot.
>>714778179
Mom already fed me today fuckhead. And I don't need you to tell me what tautology is I have it tattooed on my fucking dick to remind myself how useless it is to cum.
>>714778179
>you're that triggered
I'm the one having the keks here faggot
I'm using your responses to stimulate my fucked up brain so I can crunch through this thick logic paper
>>714777568
Thread ended with the OP post where he gave the only answer then told you to argue even though there is only one answer....
And many argued anyway
>>714778179
>wrong side of the history
where have I heard that before...hmm are you a feminist by chance?
>>714778397
So your laughing at yourself?
> I'm laughing at you laughing at me because paper
>>714778397
Bitch I eat keks for breakfast, and nobody crunches louder than your mom on my dick.
>>714778609
Of course, one who doesn't laugh at himself is a pathetic narcissist. I had ego death already, I'm beyond self.
>>714778532
Nobody said that you you idiot
>>714778659
The only crunch when someone has to do with your dick is to see it with a microscope faggit.
>>714778711
Okay so you're better than me but you don't have an ego huh? You got your head so far up your ass that all you taste these days is your own shit.
There are 3 doors.
You pick 1 door.
There is a 1/3 chance your door has the car.
For the other 2 doors, there is a 2/3 chance one door has the car and a 100% chance at least one door has a goat.
The host reveals the 100% chance goat door.
The 2/3 chance door, of the other doors, still is not revealed.
It is better to switch, you have a 2/3 chance of the car.
>>714778779
Calm down I'm teasing you fag
>>714764913
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem there u go anon , this thing has been proved by simulations
>>714778801
wut? No wonder you didn't know what Tautology is, you hardly fucking speak english .
>>714778807
Well that is both accurate and not, which is quite explanatory if you know these things.
>>714778711
> ego death
Anything you have to say is now rendered void.
>>714778864
>this thing has been proved by simulations
Mathematical or logical proof pls
or I'm bringing the refutation hammer to your house
>>714778854
What is this ugly conglomerate of math and English? Perfect explanation and perfect tits are here. >>714775995
>>714778961
>void
>implying void isn't the counterpart of whole
checkmate atheists
>>714767260
i think you should redo your math exam
>>714756697
Switch answers.
You have a 33% chance of being correct with Door 1.
You have a 66% chance with the other 2.
By opening one, you show that Door 2 now has a 66% chance of being it.
>>714756912
Think about as if you have 2000 doors. Behind one is 1 million dollars. Behind the others is Jamal.
If you select one, the other 1999 are opened, except one; the million dollars isn't revealed.
You're now pretty certain that the door you didn't select that's not open has the money behind it.
>>714757321
If the host were trying to decrease your chances, which door would he open?
Correct answer here
>If you switch doors
Your chances increase from 33% to 66%
>If you don't switch doors
Your chances stay the same at 33%
>>714778989
if you want you can do the simulation on your own https://www.r-bloggers.com/monty-hall-by-simulation-in-r/
download r ( a statistical analysis tool https://www.r-project.org/)and just copy and paste the code inside of the 1st link
>>714779036
It isnt, as cool as you thought it made you to say that.
>>714756697
I'd pick door #3.
I'm a nigger.
>>714756697
>implying probability exists
>>714756697
maybe I'm just retarded but I watched this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0
...and I still don't understand. I mean the whole condensing probability doesn't jive with me. I get what she's saying but you still only have 2 door at this point to choose from
>>714779704
>anything you have to say is now rendered void.
>>714779822
Here is the best explanation >>714775995
>>714779494
thanks, I'll check it out. The paper I'm currently reading investigates time and space in terms of chance, so that's more to my liking.
maybe it will be easier to express myself through this code, h-here I go:
prize<-floor(runif(1,1,4)) #randomize which door has the good prize
guess<-floor(runif(1,1,4)) #guess a door at random
if(prize!=guess)
reveal<-doors[-c(prize,guess)]
else
reveal<-sample(doors[-c(prize,guess)],1)
you do see that there are two variables here right? it's basically the basis of my objection.
the goat that leaves =/= the goat that stays
>>714779578
don't take the solipsist pill, I don't recommend it. you become a fucked up old faggot like me
>>714779704
mah nigga de finetti what's up
>>714780131
to expand, the variables in these code are
win
lose
is the goat leaving contributing to the lose part or the win part?
I think it should help your chances, since there are less doors now. Yet it's 1/3 chance is added to the 1/3 chance of the remaining goat.
>>714779897
good call. that helps though it still feels fucked up
>>714780131
> investigates time and space in terms of chance
Well that's beyond fucking retarded.
Time and space.... in terms of chance.
Get a haircut and get a real job.
Although in your case I suspect it's A Job
>>714780131
you are welcome anon , peace out :)
>>714781107
You'll never get a B Job tho :^)
>>714780131
I guarantee im older than you.
I wouldn't take the gungarunganiggerchungapill not because you told me not to, but because I'm not an idiot.
Get the fuck over yourself and shut the fuck up.
>>714781328
write down your age faggot, I'm 28.
>>714781179
Fail as fuck
Not even going to mention what you wanted me to.
>>714781402
I wrote it down...
Now what?
>>714781782
now you can suck this dude >>714781657
so he doesn't stay a virgin AND a brainlet
later fags
>>714782017
So you're a moron with insecurity issues.
I'll keep that in mind.
Since you're apparently leaving the thread, I'll give you a send off...
Fuck outta here you dumb faggot.
You wouldn't have been so confused the whole time if you'd spent some time lurking rather than being a day 0 poster.
You claimed you're gone, but you'll be back.
You better accept the shame when you do.
>>714782471
I'm perfectly secure in how shitty I am, I will confess that it infuriates me that you're still here shit-talking and that the world can be so small and petty. But you know what I'm going to sleep with my hatsune miku body pillow and you're going to sleep with no one you fucking cow.
>>714782829
>I'm infuriated that OP is still in this thread.
> gooken mumbo jumbo dog munch chumbo
>>714782829
Wow, okay nevermind I guess you're not insecure but you should be. I guess I was wrong when I said you should accept the shame, you're a total ball of shit and you can change. I use to sleep with a Hatsune Miku body pillow too but after cumming on it so many times I just couldn't do it anymore. I couldn't sleep with that and then wake up in the morning smelling like my own jizz. So now I sleep with my laptop and a looped video of Hatsune miku playing in the darkness. I also clean the screen of my laptop with alcohol to make sure it doesn't smell like my jizz.
I've changed my life, and I know you can too. Never accept the shame.
>>714783371
Don't you fucking tell me what to be proud of. I'm sick of hiding, I know that I can be a better person but I'm not going to become better by lying to myself and feeling like shit everyday. I'm going to be proud of what I am so that I can become a better person. I will never wash by cumstains of hatsune miku because they are a reminder of all the suffering I've been through. I COULD wash the stains away, but I can't erase the past.
>>714783371
If you want to insult the faggot, that's fine...
But don't pretend to be me.
Insult him on your own grounds or not at all..
What you're trying is bitch shit
>>714783371
>>714783714
Now it makes sense.
Samefag begging for the attention she didn't get in the thread because anything/everything she said was domestic violence level stupid...
You want that internet attention...
Become an hero.
>>714784155
Women are 50% of the population but make up the lower 99% of the united states income distribution. Explain that shit to me.
>>714785007
[citation needed]
>>714785144
https://books.google.com/books?id=4tjmDICqUOYC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_atb#v=onepage&q&f=false
>>714785492
Where does the book say that?
BTW, when it comes to people who are at the 99.9th percentile, the distribution is 75% for males and 25% for females.
Just go here and add "2000000" as your annual income.
http://whatsmypercent.com/
>>714785778
I'm not talking about men's problems, as a feminist I am only concerned with women's problems. And women make up 99 percent of the lower income curve in the united states.
We are the 99 percent, and that needs to change.
>>714785778
wow I would never say something so dumb. Stop trying to samefag me out you dumb whore. it must be fun fighting strawmen huh? you know what I'm out, bye. The only winning move is not to play.
>>714785949
>women make up 99 percent of the lower income curve
Except that's wrong.
Like I mentioned in the source above, the top 0.1% is distributed with 75% males and 25% females.
>>714786073
wtf, that was my second post ITT
>>714785007
I don't live in your third world nation, nor will I entertain your bullshit numbers attempt....
Your a jew, the goyim know
>>714786073
> The only winning move is not to play.
But you did, and that where they get their power from.
This faggot you responded to is just a homotroll, but the point doesn't change.
>>714786165
If the top 0.1% is 25% female then you should shit the fuck up.
You admitted women have one quarter of the elitist possibility.
Anything you say after that is just a joke really
>>714756697
just god fucking damnit
it's easy as fuck if you re not a retard come on
it's fifty fifty, no discussions needed
>>714787030
Uhm, yeah?
>You admitted women have one quarter of the elitist possibility.
That's what I wanted to prove, fucking idiot
>>714787131
Top of the toppest.
Women are 1/4.
That's dUmb good odds considering how many of the companies feeding them money were not grown or developed by a woman.
Go.to sleep faggit.
>>714787106
YOU'RE GARBAGE. The correct answer is here >>714775995
Your response is made up of such shitty math I can't even fathom how you got that answer.
Here's a decision tree for you faggots
>>714758129
1 question
If instead of just showing a the goat behind the door
The host did show the goat AND another door (a 4th one) and opened the 4th door showing another goat..
Would that means that bu switching i d get a 3/4 chances of getting a car?
>>714788588
No, you don't understand. read this >>714775995
>>714788588
what if instead of opening a goat door i open my zipper and you give me a blowjob on live tv
Why the fuck is this thread still alive
