this should be easy, right?
The stories and information posted here are artistic works of fiction and falsehood.
Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.
Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.
this should be easy, right?
50%
>>707857310
One in three?
50% or 1/2. if you pulled a gold ball then you know you did not pull from the box with two silver balls so that leaves just two boxes.
>>707857701
Thanks for the explanation.
>>707857701
This
1/3
45%
>>707857310
2/5. There are 2 golden balls left out of the 5 remaining balls. Fucking tards
You guys saying 50% are not that good at math. Out of the 3 goldballs that have a chance of being picken, 2 are in the full gold box and one 1 on the silver/gold mixed. In the first situation, which has 2/3 chance of happening, you'll get a gold ball, and the second one, (1/3 chance) you won't. Hence, the answer is 2/3
>>707857518
>>707857701
>>707857830
>>707857849
wrong and retarded
There are only two outcomes. There are only two boxes with a gold ball, so the next ball from the same box will either be a silver or gold ball. There are no other outcomes.
66.66666~%
>>707859088
>the next ball from the same box will either be a silver or gold ball
DUH, but the odds of it being gold are higher.
you low IQ monkey
>>707857310
50%, obviously. you took out one gold ball so it's either the first or the third box. the next ball will be silver or gold, so it's 50%
>>707858806
Then explain faggot?
>>707859360
this
>>707858806
Troll
The question is is what is your chance of selecting a gold ball on the second selection. The first part of the question verifies you selected out of one of the first 2 boxes. Meaning there is 2 possible outcomes, either;
A:You selected from the box that has 2 gold balls, meaning the next selection is guaranteed gold.
B: You selected from the mixed ball box, guaranteeing you will select a silver ball.
That means 2 options possible, 50% chance.
>>707859256
No. The probability of the first pick isn't included. It's already specified. So there's only two options left. Gold -> Gold or Gold -> Silver. There's no other thing that you can choose from. So you have 2 choices and 1 of them has a gold ball. So what's 1/2?
>>707857310
100% because i'm a jew that can smell the gold
>>707858806
Reread the question faggot
>>707859836
the first statement is that the box you pick the coin from is chosen at random. then that the coin is chosen at random and it HAPPENS to be a gold coin.
if you pick the box with 2 gold coins, you have 100% chance of picking a gold coin. if you pick the box with one gold coin, you only have 50%chance of picking a gold coin.
therefore, if you were to do the first part a 100 times, aka pick a random coin from a random box, 75% OF THE TIMES YOU PICK A COIN IT WILL BE FROM THE BOX WITH TWO GOLD COINS, hence, if you then pick the second coin in the box, there is a higher chance that it will be a gold coin as well.
this problem requires some abstract thinking, that is why brainlets have so much problems solving it.
It's 2/3.
So, firstly you pick one of the golden balls. There are three of those total, you could pick each of the balls in box 1 or the one in box 2. If you take the one from box two you won't be able to pick another gold ball in the next step. If you initially pick a golden ball from box 1, there are two possibilities of picking another golden ball (First and then second, Second and then first).
This leaves you with a chance of 2/3.
>>707860490
>75%
I meant 66.66(ad infinitum) obviously
>>707860490
>abstract thinking
B8 m8
Its a really simple problem
>You chose at random and got a gold coin.
This eliminates the silver silver box as an option
>you either have the gold silver, or gold gold box in front of you
Answer is 50/50
If you dont understand you're retarded.
If you just dont agree you're retarded and gay
>>707859256
How so? You remove a ball from the box, meaning it isn't in there anymore, so it either has or doesn't have a gold ball, and you only have two boxes.
2/3
You can ignore the SS box since we know that isn't our box as we already picked out a G. Then there are three options. G, G or S.
>>707860727
brainlets will be brainlets.
and the funny part is, brainlets always think they are clever
>>707860817
So your retarded and gay nice to see you admit it
>>707860884
haha, you silly brainlet, don't be offended.
you are just one of the many brainlets in this world. not everyone can be a full brained person.
I am not brainletophobic.
>>707860963
>I am not brainletophobic.
Of course you arent afraid of yourself with all those half thoughts. You still havent explained the problem in an understandable way to support your answer. Why? Because you are gay and retarded.
>>707860585
No, you are picking a ball from the SAME box as the first selection and the first selection is guaranteed to be gold since it already happened, meaning the total number of gold balls is irrelevant, only whether or not a ball remains in the box you have already selected from. The 2 silver balls are irrelevant because that entire box wasn't selected from in the first place.
>>707860963
You're such an internet genius. Thank you kind anon
>Lives in mom's basement
>Thinks he's smart for talking shit on an internet forum
>Still a virgin
>Needs weekly bath
>Mom and dad cry themselves to sleep
>>707861198
>he cant even be an internet genius if his answer is wrong
How can one person fail so hard, m8?
2/3
And i have to say i like this problem more than the coin one, because the coin question can be misunderstood more easilly.
>>707861136
There are two possibilities to picking a golden ball from the first box and one from the second.
It does make a difference which one of the golden balls from box 1 you pick specifically.
>>707857310
81.5%
t skolastic = 1.87
/thread
>>707857310
what in the holy fuck about that makes you think that should be easy?
>>707860963
This is the issue with these debates on 4chan, unlike an environment with someone who knows the definitive answer, like a math class. There will always be people who just guess at an answer and believe themselves to be superior, and there is no way to know if they are being facetious or not.
>>707857310
I know it's not 50%.. probably closer to 2/5? What's the correct answer OP?
>>707861311
It was more directed at the attitude rather than the answer.
>>707857310
1/3 it is easy.
>>707858781
This guy right here
>>707861117
>You still havent explained the problem in an understandable way
I have, you are just too brainlet to understand.
>>707861495
Still
Shitty attitude+incorrect answer=failure at life
>>707861513
sauce please kind sir.
>>707861198
nice projection, would be funny if any of those were also true for me and not just yourself.
>>707861587
Agreed. This will not help me in life. Back to titty threads.
>>707858806
I had a laugh though
>>707860640
>>707860490
youre retarded because you're trying to use the same logic from the 'coin flip' problem here
its not the same problem, dummy
there are 3 distinct boxes. it's not a flip of the same coin another time. if you know what's in all 3 boxes, and the first ball out is gold, you have 2 options of what box you're reaching in to.
either GG or SG. you've taken G out once already, so your options are S & G. you pick G 50% of the time.
enjoy the wonders of 5th grade math you'll learn this year, little buddy
>>707861484
50%?
>>707861484
It is 50%. Its a trick question though which is why so many people are thinking its 2/3.
>>707861577
Except your "explanation" is wrong and if you did the experiment 100 times you would get closer to 50/50 not 75/25.
Official Solution here:
http://www.inf.ed.ac.uk/teaching/courses/fmcs1/assignments/fmcs-ass3-2007-soln.pdf
See Task 2.
>>707861730
Only if you happen to pick the middle box though. Right?
2/3.
Tfw you should be reading papa Rudin but here I am shitposting on b
>>707861695
Nope, I own my own house. Not as pretty as they make it out to be.
>Mortgage
>Cook County, IL taxes
I need to move the fuck out of here. Mom's basement would be a lot cheaper if she wasn't in a retirement home.
I have lost all faith in humanity.
This many people don't know it's 50%?
No wonder we're on the brink of WW3, all the sheeple are tards now.
>>707861727
This is beyond embarassing. Reading this as a math major brings me pain. Please stop.
OK, so now that all the BRAINLETS have made a fool of themselves, let me just post this link here...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
I know i know, every brainlet thinks he's clever and he's special. It must be shocking when you first discover that you are a brainlet, but DEAL WITH IT.
brainlets are why I am successful .
>>707861727
have you actually studied probability? because i have and i can say you look rarther stupid right now.
Forget the SS box and the last Silver ball because we didnt pick it yet, we got a gold ball.
Now what are the odds of you getting the gold ball in the box with the silver ball in it?
Think about it, there are 3 gold balls, so it cant be 50/50 right? Its 1/3, leaving the other gold balls 2/3.
I dont think i can explain this in a simpler way, so if you dont get it im truly sorry.
50%
anybody who says otherwise never studied conditional probability in elementary statistics in college - that is, if they ever went to college
P(G2|G1) = P(G2 and G1)/P(G1) = (.5*.5)/.5 = .5
>>707862186
step 1: see >>707862109
step 2: delete your comment out of embarrassment
step3: kill yourself
>>707862109
bah you took the easy way out, but i guess it goes well with my post >>707862109
Now if they disagree with me they can go to your link.
>>707861845
>>707861845
>>707861845
>>707861845
This, You have to take into account the probability of which box you received your first coin from, which is most likely the box with 2 gold coins... 2/3. Anybody posting anything else is retarded
>>707862509
>bah you took the easy way out
I was taking a break from writing my PhD thesis and needed some motivation.
there is nothing more inspiring to keep on working than seeing brainlets stumble over the simplest thought experiments.
now that my ego is boosted <I can work for another 3 hours or so.
see ya
>>707862160
>>707862108
guys dont worry, at latest when you get to high school you'll be taught this.
until then just focus on pokemon and what mommy packs you for lunch
The people who insist that the answer is not 2/3 are either trolls or people who don't bother listening to others.
>>707862509
It's closer to 40/60 rather than 2/3.
>>707862871
no, more like 8/12
>>707862732
>phd
>4chan + mom's basement
choose one kiddo
so u googled the question and found it on wiki. good job
>>707862763
made me giggle, thanks.
>>707862871
>>707862928
or 600/900
>>707857310
Idk but..
3 gold 3 silver = 3 : 3
-1 gold = 2 : 3
2/3 = 0.4
decimals converted to percentage would be 40% sooo??? is that right? idk lol
>>707862160
>Think about it, there are 3 gold balls, so it cant be 50/50 right? Its 1/3, leaving the other gold balls 2/3.
are you retarded? there are 2 gold balls. you've already picked one up
there are 2 separate boxes. so you've picked one gold ball. either you will pick another gold ball, or you will pick a silver ball.
>>707857310
but there are only grey balls?
2/3 , read the note below the task (red sentence). /thread
>>707862109
Wrong, retarded, and gay
>>707858781
You've already taken a ball out of the box. We're talking about the probability of the other ball being gold. There are no boxes with 2 gold balls in them anymore, and what's in the boxes you didn't choose no longer matters.
>>707863069
if you could see into the boxes, the probability would be 1 or 0 lol
>>707862928
Come on, everyone knows it's actually 80/120.
>>707862959
4chan is for introvers nolives.
irl nolives become either complete neets or complete geeks/scientists
sad but true. go on /sci/, you'll see.
>>707863029
How can you be this stupid?
>are you retarded? there are 2 gold balls. you've already picked one up
im asking what are the odds that the ball YOU ALREADY PICKED is the one from the box with a silver ball. in it.
because i refuse to believe that one can be so stupid i'll ask again, do you really think that it can be 50/50 when its 1/3 gold balls?
Do you not see how 50/50 is NOT equal to 1/3.
>>707862109
>BRAINLETS
autist detected
>>707857310
It depends on whether or not you replace the first ball after drawing. If you don't, the odds are 50%. If you do, the odds are 75%. Plebians
>>707857518
/thread
Very first reply was correct. How in the fuck is this thread still alive?
>trolls reply with 2/3
>autists are compelled to reply
Oh right, it's 4chan.
it's more like 256/768
>>707863340
still beats being a brainlet
pic related, your kin
>>707860490
>if you pick the box with 2 gold coins, you have 100% chance of picking a gold coin. if you pick the box with one gold coin, you only have 0%chance of picking a gold coin.
>FTFY
>>707857310
2/3, you plebs!
sauce: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
>>707863385
retarded
>>707863481
Wrong, fake, and gay
>>707863472
no you brainlet, I was talking about picking the boxes, not the gold coins in the boxes.
see, this is why brainlets are annoying
>>707863404
more like 891,333333333333333333.../1337
>>707863324
im not sure whether you are retarded or just lazy and repeating an answer you've already heard without putting any thought in to it
go back, my little idiot, are re-read the question. "you pick a ball from the box, its a gold ball. what is the probability that the NEXT BALL you take from the same box will also be gold?"
it's asking the probability AFTER you have already picked out a golden ball. if it were worded differently, like the original problem it's based off of, then yes it would be 2/3 because it asks the probability before you've already picked a ball.
the way this question is worded is to trick idiots like yourself. you have already picked a gold ball. NOW what is the probability the next ball is gold? it can either be gold or silver. 50/50
>>707860168
>>707863582
>calls me brainlet
>can't into probabilty
Troll harder next time
>>707863481
2/3 is the chance if ONE of the coins is gold, not the FIRST one.
>>707863653
nice question dodging idiot.
I was asking about the first ball.
Explaining why 2/3 supporters are wrong and why 50% is the correct answer.
>>707863922
take the first ball and shove it up your ass
we are talking about the OP question and the answer. i dont give a shit what you think about a 'first ball'. re read the question, you dumb nigger
>>707863927
Finally
>>707863927
no, fuck you, it's 75%.
>>707863927
>>707864026
brainlets just won't give up will they?
>>707863396
I made that reply, and now I'm so surprised about how stupid people can be that I made an info graph explaining the logic.
>>707863653
just answer the question dammit.
What are the odds that the gold ball you picked is from the box with the silver ball in it.
>>707864135
no, it's 2/3 aka 66.66...%
>>707863927
looks like you forgot that there is a third gold ball.
>oops
>>707863004
You didnt read the question, math isnt needed to solve, its a logic question.
>>707864137
fuck you mane it's 14/88.
Dies war von meinem Fueherer gesagt, so ist es ein Befehl. Die Chance ist15,09(09)%.
Schwul.
>>707857310
probability doesnt exist
>>707864282
Except there isnt you faggot
>>707864292
lol yeah I'm high asf rn dude, more than usual
>>707864282
I didn't forget that ball, it was removed by the participant in the first part of the question.
those who think anything else than 50% make a mistake in the moment when they think if they grabbed yellow ball from first box there is possibility to grab yellow ball from second box
2/3 I'll only explain it for the retards.
You have 3 boxes each filled with two balls. Box One has 2 golden balls. Box Two has 1 silver and 1 golden ball. Box Three has 2 silver balls.
You grab 1 golden ball therefore ruling out box Three (even though you don't know which box that is we are calculating the probability whether we the next ball is gold).
In box One we had 2 golden balls, in box Two we had 1 golden ball and 1 silver. In total we have 3 golden balls. 2 out of the 3 balls is in box One. 1 out of the 3 is box Two. Meaning it's â…” chance we will grab another gold ball.
Funny how some of you call them coins when they post says balls.
>>707865185
>>707864947
some nigger just told you why youre stupid
Either you grab another gold ball or you don't fucking retards over thinking a simple question
Alright, here's a no trollorino or brainlet or whatever response so we can hopefully get this resolved (we wont)
The reason that it's 66% (as explained in the wiki article linked) is because of probability.
>but anon, you removed a gold ball, so the only two remaining options are gold or silver, 50%! Faggot!
Now hold on, it's important to look at the question.
We picked a box RANDOMLY and chose the ball out of that box RANDOMLY. this means it's important to factor the chance that we pulled gold out the first time.
Why does this matter? Because there is a greater chance that if you pulled gold on your VERY first random pull, you probably hit the double gold box
>wtf anon that sounds like bullshit
It's not. If you hit the gold/silver box, it's a 50% chance you pull silver. We hit gold on our first time. There's a better chance (a 66.6% chance) that we hit the double gold box if we pulled gold on our first try. How do we know that?
Because you repeat the experiment x amount of times and get the probability, duh. Read the wiki article.
I came into this thread CONVINCED it was 50% myself. You have to factor in the probability of getting gold on your first pull, if you hit gold it's more than likely that juicy double gold box.
>>707865185
Look, you dense motherfucker.
You have picked at random (picked as in past tense) a gold ball. This means that any other probability of choosing a ball has been rendered a non-factor, if a ball has been already chosen, there is a 50% chance of it being gold and 50% of it being silver. Because you are reaching into the same container. So have ALREADY taken out 1 ball out of there and only equally likely events can occur.
A) You reach out and grab a gold ball
B) You reach out and grab a silver ball
>>707865185
The ball is removed from the box you select. Meaning only 2 left.
>>707864015
>>707864569
>thinks that the probability of the first ball doesnt matter
>knows absolutely nothing about probability
>argues about it
>calls others retards for not agreeing with him
You guys crack me up.
>>707863927
he DID forget a ball, there are 3, he only shows what happens with 2 of the balls and says its 50/50, well its not because there are 3 gold balls.
>>707865922
This is why we have an issue here, The wikipedia article is literally covering a completely different question. Its irrelevant whatever chance the first ball was to be picked and be gold, because in this question, unlike the wikipedia article, the first ball being removed is a constant not a variable.
>>707865922
its nice to see that atleast someone here can actually learn something, too bad not all will...
And the really sad part is that some of those people arent even stupid, they are just so damn stubborn with their egos that they refuse to change their minds.
>>707866337
>Its irrelevant whatever chance the first ball was to be picked and be gold
what the fuck? it makes ALL the difference because the balls are paired up. in this case 2 out of the 3 balls are in a box with only gold balls, wake the fuck up mate.
>>707866078
For starters I never called anyone a retard or even addressed anyone for that matter. No one is stupid here there are just people misreading the question and thinking its like the one in the wikipedia article, leading them to believe its 66%.
The probability of the first ball is not irrelevant, its just 100% and therefore might as well be constant, the third ball is irrelevant because it was removed from the box and at no point does the question state its re added to the boxes.
you dumb fucking idiots and you still dare to lie that you have 150-200 iq
>>707866762
My IQ is 2/3. Exact the same value as the solution.
>>707866586
>>707863927
This picture explains why 50% is right, and unlike the wikipedia article it has something to do with the question.
>>707860168
underated post
>>707866724
>the third ball is irrelevant because it was removed from the box
see >>707866724
Not only is the ball that we removed not irrelevant, its the fucking key.
Even If the first ball is constant being gold and removed, the probability still ties with the first event.
>>707866918
it only shows 2 out of the 3 possibilies.
The first gold ball might also be the other one from the box with 2 gold balls.
>>707867027
Feel free to explain how at any point, without directing us all to a wikipedia page about an irrelevant paradox.
>>707867168
If the gold ball was removed from the box with 2 gold balls it doesnt matter which was removed, because in the end of the day the result is the same: A box with 1 gold ball remaining.
>>707865922
mofo , if youre doing something every hour and theres 20% chance that FUCKING MAGIC will happen , whats the chance from a random moment that FUCKING MAGIC will happen twice in a row ? 4% , but if FUCKING MAGIC just happened and you wonder whats the chance for DOUBLE FUCKING MAGIC its not 4% anymore because youre already standing in this situation and from your position its 20%
>>707865939
Look you fucking a stubborn piece of shit. You're calculating the probability of grabbing another golden ball not whether it's gold or silver, which doesn't matter anyway because the chances of grabbing a silver ball are 1/3 since you already have a fucking gold ball in your hand, it's not my fucking problem that you failed mathematics, FUCKING CANCER PATIENT. Why did I even bother explaining it to a stupid mongoloid cockrocking motherfucking homeless sad fucker.
>>707865370
This is why you will never be anything in life, anon.
>>707866007
You aren't just calculating what's left or what you're going to grab next, you're also calculating what box you probably took it from.
>>707867188
here is my first post in the thread.
>>707862160
You are ignoring the first pick when its in a key position in solving this.
The first gold ball has a 2/3 chance of being from the box with 2 gold balls in it and only 1/3 chance of being from the box with the silver ball.
why? because there are 3 fucking gold balls.
>>707857310
You know you chose either box 1 or box 2. There's a 2/3 chance you chose box 1 (2 of the 3 gold coins were there) and a 1/3 chance you chose box 2 (only 1 of the 3 gold coins was there).
Odds are 2/3 that you have box 1, so odds are 2/3 that you get another gold
Omg even op is wrong. I'm out, this is a troll thread.
>>707867463
>This is why you will never be anything in life, anon.
youre a retarded virgin loser trying hard to act smart on internet but fails even at this , a dumb sheep will never become a wolf , now go cry and fap to anime , tell your nonexisting friends something interesting what you read in wikipedia
here you go faggots empirical proof
http://pastie org/10943194
You fucking morons. Look at it this way. Let's exclude the SS box completely as it's a specified we can't choose that box. This leaves 2 possibilities. SG or GG. There is a 1/2 chance. 50%. No other possibilities. 50%!
Why are there so many uneducated retards on this thread?
>>707868278
>Why are there so many uneducated retards on this thread?
you tell me, because the uneducated retards are the ones saying its 50%.
and dont even pretend that you have studied probability, because its obvious that you havent.
50%
The OP has a lot of extra info.
Scenario: You have already pulled a gold ball. You can ignore the box with 2 silvers, it doesn't matter. You will be drawing from the same box you drew the first gold from.
So if you already drew a gold ball, there's no way you have the box with 2 silvers. It's not a part of this at all.
So is it the box with 2 golds, or 1 gold? 50/50.
>>707868131
Awh is little dumb monkey mad because I told the truth and hit him where it hurts. Do you wanna nibble on your mommies titties for some comfywomfy? You little sad fuck.
Nice try on reflecting your self image onto me.
Listen up autists.
You take ONE gold ball out of a random box.
You're only looking for the probability that the next ball you take will also be gold.
The box with two silver balls is ruled out by this statement, as if you've already taken a gold ball out it cannot be the box with two silver balls in it.
This leaves you with one of two boxes, one of them contained a gold and silver ball, the other contained two gold balls.
So now you take out a gold ball, and you're left with one silver ball, and two gold balls.
The chances that you draw another gold ball could be argued at 50%, as you either take the ball out and it's gold, or you take the ball out and it's silver.
However, cumulatively, there is a 2/3 chance, (or 66.6666666666% for you fucktards) that any one of the balls you pick out is gold, which is the true probability.
Also, check my fucking singles.
>>707868511
ikr! cant win an argument over the internet so he goes to namecalling and convinces himself that you are a loser in order to feel better about himself.
>>707862038
Fucking hell. I don't want you on my team for ww3. I didn't realise b was so dumb. I think I've been here often enough to be pretty sure this isn't mostly trolling itt.
>it's 2/3 btw
>>707868690
Are you deliberately being ironic or are you too dense to realise your own mistakes?
>>707869015
Give up, anon.
At the end of the day, both of you wont remember a thing about this thread.
Just go ahead and close the tab.
Take pride in your decision.
>>707868690
And you, anon, you need to stop getting le tricky hook maymay'd.
>>707869015
>>707869146
im some random fucker who made his first post in this thread and oh boy im i glad when this is the sort of salt i get as a reward.
>>707868511
no , i just know a similar frustrated loser in real , hes also 35y old virgin like you and no one on earth believes that hes smart except himself
im sick of this kind
>>707868471
I studied statistics. You're saying there's only a 1in 3 chance that the next ball picked is silver? The odds of the next ball being gold are twice as great as the odds of it being silver. Funny.
>>707869234
>expecting to be rewarded for making a post on 4chan, especially on /b/
Y'know what, You've blown whatever little faith I had in you to stop being petty about an internet arguement.
Just go ahead and fucking kill yourself.
Here's how you get 2/3 by counting the cases. Now, are the first two cases actually distinct, or are they the same? Discuss.
50%
>>707857310
1/243
>>707869415
Ok, now get rid of all images that show a silver ball being picked first, because then nothing happens. It tells you you draw a gold ball the first pick for certain.
If you place the ball inside again I'd argue for 3/4 or 0.75 or 75%.
Reasoning:
We took a golden ball so we know we are in box 1 or 2.
If we are in the first box, the next ball will be golden. => p_1=0.5*1
If we are in the second box, the change for a golden ball is 0.5. => p_1=0.5*0.5.
Now the overall likelyhood is p_1 + p_2 making 3/4.
>>707869638
Note that all cases in which a silver ball was drawn first are crossed out.
>>707869380
im not expecting a reward, your post IS the reward and you keep giving.
>>707869733
There's no reason to draw them at all. Like the next part.
Next, you don't need to show 2 different images for the box with 2 golds being choosen. It makes no difference which individual ball is picked, it's a choice between 2 boxes. So get rid of one of those too.
83.3% recurring
>>707857310
EZPZ
Take sample space.
Take number of occurrences compared to how many balls you love shoving in your ass.
????
I have a very serious meth addiction someone please help me, my family is starving and I can't support them.
>>707869377
1. statistics is NOT probability, not even close.
2. what the fuck are you talking about?
>>707863206
This guy. This guy gets it.
>>707869852
>it's a choice between 2 boxes
No, it isn't. Initially, it's a choice of a random ball from one of the boxes. There is a difference.
is it 42%? I'm not sure but my calculytis should be right.
>>707857701
you dono what any of the boxes contain so for all you know, you pulled from the 2 gold ball box.
That mean you have a simple overall probability.
After taking the first gold ball, you're left with 2 gold and 3 silver, for a total of 5 items.
2 of those are gold, so 2/5 probability of getting a gold. So 40% chance at a gold.
>>707870060
Math statistics involves probability to study outcomes of events.
It involves relative frequencies and predictions for future outcomes.
Try again.
Its 4/6 you jack asses.
>>707869852
I think maybe you need to run this experiment for yourself irl. I'm not sure you'll ever understand the logic but you might at least be able to accept the answer is 2/3.
>>707869415
>>707869638
>>707869733
>>707869852
>>707870172
Here I Fix'd it.
It is not initially a random choice You are told you have drawn a gold ball. So you have 1 of 2 boxes from the beginning.
>>707870115
except that he doesnt and neither do you.
Just looking for people who agree with you and ignoring everyone who disagrees? typical.
There is an easy explanation why people think its 2/3 and why people think its 1/2.
In case u give every ball an number, it will be 2/3 because the sequence is important.
If they are unnumbered (like in the picture of op) it is 1/2 because the sequence doesn't matter.
>>707870320
And I forgot the image, too.
>>707870060
This is a very popular probability question with only 1 accepted answer. The answer is strewn across the internet. Why is it even being debated?
1/2 IS the answer.
>>707870255
no, you try again.
go study the problem (there are even links in this thread) and dont stop untill you actually understand why its 2/3 and not 50/50.
Even if you were Stephen Hawkins you would be wrong if you sayd its 50/50.
>>707869288
I'm 20 and I'm a Chad. Must be pretty stressful for you that I'm also much more intelligent than you are. I mean I fuck the women you masturbate to with your tiny wiener, sad cuck. And on top of that I will contribute more to the world than you could, you'll probably end up killing yourself, hahaha cuck.
>>707869234
If just asking a question is satisfying salt to you than you have a low standard. You're most likely a nigger that's easily amused.
>>707869146
Nah, I enjoy triggering people. Works out great for my ego.
People saying 2/3 read the fucking question again. We're choosing from the SAME box. Ignore how many gold balls are left. We aren't choosing from another box.
>>707870533
I'm trying to ignore your Internet fight but it's getting full blown cringe.
>>707869415
the thing is the entity box its the one thats being counted and described not the balls
>>707870382
There are two gold balls in the first box. Why are you only counting the case in which one of the balls is selected? Doesn't this discount the higher probability of initially selecting the box with more gold balls in it? (The probability of selecting that box is higher because of the higher probability of selecting a gold ball from it... because it contains more gold balls than the other boxes... and we're given that the first ball pulled was gold)
>>707870382
lol did you just remove of the the possibilities to make it look like its 50/50? you sad fuck.
Did you not know that you should follow the evidence where it leads instead of leading the evidence where you want it to go.
its still 2/3 btw, no matter how hard you try.
The ball you pulled out doesn't matter, because the question you asked wasn't "Before taking out any ball, what is the probability that two balls you pull out will be gold?" One gold ball is already out, so it becomes negligible
>>707870533
tldr
for satans sake fuck my luck i see your retarded virgin shit everytime i refresh first page , when will you understand no matter how much youll shit yourself on internet it wont change the fact youre a loser ?
>>707870889
Dude, it makes ALL the difference which box the ball came out of and it has a bigger chance of being from the box with 2 gold balls. 2/3 chance to be exact.
>>707870819
dude, selecting one ball from 2 gold, is the same as selecting "the other" from two gold, because the balls are identical
>>707871051
no, because youre not picking BALLS, you are chosing BOXES to pick balls from.
>>707870516
When the fuck did I say it was 50/50?
All I said was what pertained to mathematical statistics you uneducated dumbass.
Try again.
>>707870533
>I'm 20 and I'm a Chad
I have become asian wincing at this shit
Are we just ignoring the fact that there are solid gold and silver balls in boxes
The probability of me pulling a gold ball is 100%, cause I'm taking every god damn ball and making some mad cash
>>707871070
You're too stuck on the idea that "two gold balls look the same." The fact that there are two of them increases the probability that the box containing two gold balls was selected when the first gold ball was pulled.
>>707871457
>>707871487
no i'm not lol, the first ball being picked is not calculated.
>legit overthinking a simple prob
>>707871280
You said it wasn't 2/3 you dumb stats fuck
I'm pretty sure it's 2/3 and I'm currently doing a Stats/probability class, but I'm stupid.
>>707857310
0.5
You've already taken a golden ball, so you can disregard the box with two silver balls. This simplifies the question down to there are two possible boxes, and the second ball you take out is either gold or silver depending on which of the two boxes you have.
>>707872014
It's only brainlets that think they're smart. It makes them easy to fool.
>>707870990
When will you stop projecting yourself onto me? You're really good at repeating yourself, have you been told you're a loser a lot and you actually started believing it? You do realise that forcing your stupid lifestyle onto me won't make you any less of a loser? I mean you don't even know me. Keep basing that shit off of your own experience.
>>707872225
FUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKK !!!!!!!!!
>>707871280
well lets see, how about here >>707868278
if thats not you the why did you respond to me saying >>707868471
In front of me I have 2 coins on a desk. One has heads in both sides. The other has heads on one side and tails on the other.
I leave both coins heads up and shuffle them around the desk. I then pick a coin. What is the probability that the underside of the coin is heads?
>>707872352
Why did you quote another guy and myself? Because we both used the word 'uneducated'?
>>707872516
1/2
>>707872593
because it was a conversation where apparently you just jumped in and started making no sense what so ever.
>>707872516
50%
how is this related?
>>707871789
Yes, you are. The question that you're answering is "if you select a box at random, and that box contains a gold ball, what is the probability that it contains two gold balls?" But that isn't what OP asked. It's subtle, but there is a difference.
>>707872718
I have 2 boxes on a desk. One has 2 gold balls, the other has one gold and one silver. I take a gold ball from each and place it on the lid of the box. Now I choose a box. What is the probability the remaining ball in the box is gold?
>>707872593
You are this guy>>707869377
There is only a 1/3 chance of silver, stats dipshit
>>707871812
>Math statistics involves probability to study outcomes of events.
It involves relative frequencies and predictions for future outcomes.
THATS what I said you dipshit. Learn how to follow reply chains correctly.
>>707873034
You are this guy >>707872312
I am this guy >>707872119
>>707873016
1/2
>>707873016
50%
but thats not what OP is asking if thats what you are trying to say.
-30%
>>707873288
Yes he is. OPs problem is not Bertrand's box paradox.
>>707873197
No and no
>>707873391
No, you're wrong
>>707863927
This explains perfectly why someone who doesn't know any better would think it was 50%. There are actually three possible outcomes after removing a gold ball.
>>707873391
How is it different?
>>707873441
I am this guy >>707873441
>>707873391
Look at the obvious difference between what you said and op's problem. You took out two gold balls before it was 1/2.
>>707873621
Yep. As shown here: >>707869415
>>707873717
Nah that's me cunt
>>707868211
All 50%ers please look at this picture.
Yes, you have already chosen a golden ball.
Yes, that means there are only two options left, GS or GG.
HOWEVER: because you picked a gold ball first, there is a GREATER CHANCE that it was from the box with two gold balls. Does that make sense?
You cannot say that the first ball pick doesn't matter, because the probability of the first pick influences the probability of the 2nd pick.
Imagine 3 boxes, one with 100 gold balls, one with 99silver and 1gold, and one with 100 silver.
If you picked a ball at random and it was GOLD, then do you really think you have only a 50% chance to pick another gold one? No, it is way higher. Scale this down to 3 boxes and the logic still applies.
>>707874048
3 golden balls* not boxes
1/2
There are only two boxes that the gold ball could have come from. If it's the first box then the remaining ball is gold and if it's the second box then the remaining ball is silver.
P(A)=n(a)/n(s)
n(a): 2 ways to get 2 golds (g1,g2 and g2,g1)
n(s): 3 outcomes (g3, s, g1,g2 and g2,g1)
P(A)= 2/3
did none of you pass high school math ffs.
>>707874048
>because the probability of the first pick influences the probability of the 2nd pick.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
I'm glad we cleared that up lol
50%
>>707857310
2/3
Option 1: picked the first gold ball out of the first box
Next pick is gold
Option 2: picked the 2nd gold ball out of the first box
Next pick is gold
Option 3: picked the only gold ball out of the 2nd box
Next pick is silver
Did you read the 2nd part of what I wrote? No reason to act like an ass when you're completely wrong and don't realize it. look at the image.
consider:
box A has 100 gold balls in it,
box B has 99 silvers and 1 gold
box C has 100 silvers
Do you really think if you picked a gold ball at random in that scenario that the chance it came from box B is 50%?
>>707875059
whoops this was meant to be a reply to >>707874716
>>707857310
it's amazing that these threads continue to bait people, when you can just google this shit.
>>707874716
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-fallacy-fallacy
>>707874965
yes, but you already picked out one of the gold balls, so it's 50%
Presuming that it's 50% would indicate that you didn't read the question properly.
>>707863927
I have no words
>>707869415
This dumbed down so far that if you still don't get it, you're an oxymoron. And you probably shouldn't take up probability.
Yes those are distinct, you're grabbing two different balls.
>>707857310
100% gold is heavier then silver, feel round all boxes for some heavy balls.
>>707875059
>>707875134
Look at this, you can't even use 4chan properly. Talking to nobody, posting your images separate from your posts... fucking newfag
You've already been told by other anons: This isn't Bertrand's Paradox. You're making the same mistake that the other people saying 2/3s in this thread are making. You insist on calculating something that has already happened. It's a GIVEN that you've picked a gold ball from the box, you don't have to calculate which one it is more likely to have come from because it has already happened. The situation from here, the beginning of the question, is very simple. You have two possible boxes from which the gold ball could have come from, they are equally likely, one will produce another gold ball and the other box will produce a silver ball.
>>707875312
but which one was it you idiot?
it wont be 50% no matter how many times you say it.
The difference between 2/3 and 50% is the difference between theory and practice.
>>707875312
Which one did you pick?
>>707875710
>This isn't Bertrand's Paradox
How is it different?
>You have two possible boxes from which the gold ball could have come from, they are equally likely.
wrong.
>>707875298
Are you standing by the claim that the probability of the first pick influences the probability of the 2nd pick?
You really should read it over:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
You'll learn something.
>>707875710
A guy who gets it! This is absolutely not Bertrand's box paradox. Congratulations
>>707875861
it doesn't matter
>>707875917
We're picking from the same box
>>707857310
0.5
>>707875935
i did, now you should read up on the actual problem we are discussing here, you MIGHT learn something, but you wont if you are an idiot which you do look like right now.
>>707875059
So your argument is that because you came up with a different scenario with different odds, it has ANYTHING to do with the OP scenario? Seriously?
You may as well say there are 3 boxes. One with 2 gold, another with 2 gold, and one with 2 silver...and then go from there.
In response to the OP. Once you pick a gold ball (you don't know from what box), it accomplishes 2 things. First, it eliminates the third box from the equation. Second, it (from an analysis point) removes one gold ball from each remaining box, since we don't know what box it came from. You HAVE TO remove those balls from the equation. You can't look at it like only one ball was removed because you don't know where it came from. So now you're left with two possibilities.
A - It was from box 1, which leaves a 100 percent chance it's gold.
B - It was from box 2, which means there's a 100 percent chance it's silver.
Since there is only one ball left in whichever box you chose, each box is equally likely, and therefore the odds of each are equal, which means there is a 50% chance of either outcome.
And before you try and foist that false argument that the odds of you picking a gold (which by extension had to be from box 1 or 2) is higher from box 1, remember that those odds were from the first pick and have no bearing on the second. That's why your initial argument was wrong to assume a different scenario.
>>707875059
Let's imagine there are 17 boxes. 13 of these are real and the remaining 9 are imaginary. What is the probability that all 19 boxes contain 1 silver AND one gold box?
>>707875710
didn't post the original image actually, and accidentally backspaced the post i linked without realizing it.
But yeah, i really don't understand how you can be so stupid. literally read my post and stop wanting so desperately to be.
The first pick DOES matter because the 2nd pick comes from the same box that the ball you first picked came from.
You picked a gold at random. Since there were TWO GOLDS in box A and ONLY ONE in box B, that means that the probability of the gold being from box A is HIGHER
HOW DOES THAT NOT MAKE SENSE TO YOU???
>>707876099
read the fucking wiki page again nigger, it says its 2/3, its obviously the same problem.
If it wasnt, the odds would not be 2/3.
You thought we change the box midway and still get 2/3? no nigga, if we changed it and just took a random ball it would be 60% chance to get a silver ball.
ofc we keep the box, stupid.
>>707876400
This.
>>707876659
You didn't pick a gold at random. You picked a box at random.
>>707867027
No, the third ball IS irrelevant. The third gold ball will NEVER be chosen, regardless of the outcomes. Either it's in the gold/silver box still and we're in box 1, which means you're guaranteed to pick gold. Or it's in the gold/gold box and will remain there since you're in box 2 now and have 100 percent chance of picking silver.
Seriously...it's that easy. The third ball has absolutely zero impact on the outcome, and so can't be considered in the probability.
>>707876727
Read the original fucking post bigger the same fucking box
>>707876801
just like in the wiki page, fuck you stupid nigger.
ITS THE SAME PROBLEM.
>>707876026
Yes, it does. You have a higher chance of picking a gold ball out of the first box than you do the 2nd box.
Try this:
add 40 more gold balls into the 1st box
add 40 more solver balls into the 2nd
Repeat the scenario.
If you pull a gold ball, which box did you likely pull it out of?
Still think it's a 50-50 chance?
>>707876788
essentially the same thing. there's a higher chance that the gold you pulled out of the box was from the one with more golds in it
>>707876930
No it's not you fucking moron stop calculating the ball in the other box nigger
>>707857310
Correct answer is 2/3. Easy.
>>707877061
you're an idiot. its the same problem and the answer is 2/3, like it or not, believe it or not but thats how it is.
>>707876968
eliminate all silver balls. you choose a box and pull out a gold ball.
what is the chance the same box has another ball in it?
>>707877248
And you can't read. We're not pulling from another box.
>>707877319
This is essentially the same question as OP's, and the answer is still 2/3.
>>707870533
Insecure much? Your life must be very sad.
whatever faggot wrote op's image should be dumped into a fire. Should be re-written as:
after choosing a box at random and withdrawing one coin at random, if that happens to be a gold coin, of the next coin also being a gold coin.
>>707876788
>you pick a box at random
>you then pick a ball at random
>>707876968
I love these "Let me make up a new scenario to prove my point about a different scenario."
I've got one for you...
If there are 100 horses in a stable, and 100 cows in a pasture. What are the odds that on Tuesday it will rain?
That last scenario has EXACTLY as much to do with the original post as yours. Seriously...exactly the same amount.
But wait, yours has to do with balls and colors tho...so it has to be more accurate right?
Wrong. Try this.
There are 3 boxes. One has a million gold balls. One has a million silver balls. One has no balls in it whatsoever. You pull a gold ball out, what are the odds that you pull a ball (of any color) out on the second pick.
HURR DURR, it's 2/3 because two of the three boxes have balls in them.
Seriously, just stop.
>>707877379
never sayd we were, OP says its the same box and so does the wiki page.
i can read fine, but i dont think you can, how did you even get here?
>>707877379
you're a fucking idiot. the wiki page literally says it's from the same box.
>>707870718
Fucking this.
you cant count the same box twice because theres 2 gold balls in it.
fucking retards on here.
>>707877639
hes post makes perfect sense, its the same problem with bigged numbers to make it more obvious, you just dont fucking get it or refuse to get it because you were beaten as a child.
>>707877639
>>707877479
No. No it isn't.
Just because it's SIMILAR, doesn't mean it's essentially the same.
Orange juice and lemon juice are SIMILAR, but try substituting one for the other in a recipe and getting the same result.
FFS people, stop thinking that you can make up some new scenario with different parameters and somehow use that to draw a conclusion about the original one. That isn't how this works.
>>707871789
>no i'm not lol, the first ball being picked is not calculated.
this nigger knows whats up.
its the same as the fucking monty hall shit. theres just some shit you DONT take into consideration.
>>707863927
i teach probability.
>>707860963
troll is strong with this one
how does one get so many bites
>>707877639
you are honestly so fucking dumb. I'm not the guy who you replied to, but honestly dude if you can't see that the scenario he posed is essentially the same as the one in the OP, then you are dumb as fuck. I hope you aren't a STEM major
Y'all need Bayes' theorem
The probability of selecting the first box with 2 gold balls is 1/3. The probability of selecting a gold ball is 1/2. The conditional probability of selecting a gold ball if you have already chosen the first box is 1.
Therefore, the conditional probability of selecting the first box if you have already taken a gold ball is (1*1/3)/(1/2), which is 2/3.
>>707877971
bitch its exactly the same.
Please explain how its different. I dare you.
>>707857310
40% or 2/5 chance.
Anyone who said anything else is a complete fucking retard.
>>707878172
made me giggle, thanks.
>>707877835
Really? It's EXACTLY THE SAME? With biggeD numbers? I mean, let's analyze your claim. How many balls did we add to the third box then? I mean if all he did was biggeD the numbers, what about that third box?
Oh right, he didn't just biggeD the numbers. He changed the ratios of silver to gold in two of the three. And by extension he changed the overall ratio. Still think it's exactly the same?
The only way he could have biggeD the numbers and kept it the same would be to say that he doubled (or some other multiple) the number of BOTH colors in each box, therefore retaining the same ratio.
>>707877971
>hurr stats is like cooking
It's the same in that the math works out the same, idiot.
>>707877994
To whom? Special needs students?
>>707877524
This. The key difference that is throwing people off is that in OP's image, it says, "You draw a gold ball." The actual paradox says, "if that happens to be a gold coin."
This is actually a very big difference. The first sentence implies that the fact you will draw a gold ball is absolute; thereby implicating the drawing of a gold ball to be 100%. If you start with this initial focus, that you have a 100% chance of drawing a gold ball, then many people view that it does not impact any further probability, which means that they think they are choosing from the remaining boxes.
By saying, "if you chose a gold" it means you have to think about the probability in getting a gold coin in the first place. Obviously, at that point, the probability is higher to pick a gold coin from the first box, since there is a 100% chance if you pick from that box.
Proving that there is a 100% chance OP is a faggot, and as usual, all these argument threads are because of vague and faggy phrasing in the initial question.
>>707878465
apparently
>>707878465
Yo rotting corpse of a momma
>>707878111
And if you can't see that drawing conclusions on something essentially the same is not the same as EXACTLY the same then you're fucking retarded.
What if they were just basically the same..or how about kind of the same? Does the degree to which the problem is changed have anything to do with the original question?
No.
As soon as you alter the question, you alter the ability to draw conclusions. It's that fucking simple. Analyze the question put forth on its own merit. Don't change facts because you want to prove you're right.
>>707878465
*to who
For the people arguing it's 50% chance with a bit of programming knowledge, please understand OP's problem is different from the code below that prints
Probability of finding another gold ball if a box is chosen at random: 0.500227
The used random is normal distributed
public class Main {
private static final int ITERATIONS = 1000000;
public static void main(String[] args) {
Random rand = new Random();
double numberOfTwoGoldFound = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < ITERATIONS; i++){
int box = rand.nextInt(2);
if (box == 0) {
//box 1 chosen
}
if (box == 1) {
//box 2 chosen
numberOfTwoGoldFound++;
}
}
System.out.println("Probability of finding another gold ball if a box is chosen at random: " + numberOfTwoGoldFound/ITERATIONS);
}
}
>>707878164
So it's EXACTLY the same right? Care to explain how adding balls to only 2 of the three boxes can be considered exactly the same?
>>707870343
Except you're wrong anon
>>707878508
I was saying %50, but I see why it's 2/3 now. thanks anon.
>>707878386
Well I figured that since these people can't grasp how changing the numbers around willy nilly doesn't mean that things are the same, maybe I could use something other than numbers to get the point across...but apparently not.
>>707878646
there is a problem with your code, the actual answer is 2/3 and no amount of code will change it.
>>707858781
You pick from the same box, not a different one.
(1x 50% ) + ( 1x 0%) = 25%
>>707877639
Just trying to exaggerate the key mechanic to evoke a gut reaction to the bit you're missing because you beligerently refuse to understand how probability works.
It's the same problem with a wider margin. My example the answer is 42/43.
You're ignoring half the problem. Realistically you aren't magically pulling a gold ball to start the experiment. You're pulling a ball, and every time you pull a silver ball you start over.
>>707857310
I got 33...% because there are only 3 balls of each. Since one gold ball was removed , two are left. So it's 2 gold balls out of the total or 2/6 or 1/3 of picking a gold ball.
>>707878508
Vague phrasing of the original question? How so? Every detail of the question is spelled out exactly.
3 boxes
Content of each
Draw 1 ball
Draw second ball from same box
Can't see into boxes
What exactly is vague in there?
>>707878646
Your code only selects a box. It never selects a ball. Therefore, it isn't simulating OP's question.
people are trying desperately to liken this to other tricks they've seen in the past... like the boy or girl paradox, monty hall problem, three prisoner's problem, etc
but this question is not those questions, it's different in how and when the information becomes given
but that's what is brilliant about this problem. it's perfect for 4chan because a bunch of posters that don't actually understand the mathematical principles behind these tricks think that they have "seen" the correct answer before and just keep spamming "2/3" and making up other weird scenarios to talk about instead, trying to force this problem to be like the others that they have seen in the past lol
>>707877524
>>707878508
The wording is fine, since OP says you pick a box at random and you pick a ball at random.
>>707878872
Have you considered that your point is wrong?
>>707879306
You don't see a difference between
"If you draw a gold ball"
and
"You will always draw a gold ball"
?????
>>707862186
>studied conditional probability
>uses the wrong formula, gets the wrong answer
>>707879280
It's basic conditional probability, it's the same mathematical principle as in the Monty Hall problem. Go kys
>>707879163
Okay, whoever said ANYTHING about pulling a silver ball and starting over? This is a one off example. This isn't the odds that if we do this an infinite number of times.
Again, you're failing to acknowledge what is actually in play here, and it's this (and ONLY THIS) scenario presented by the OP.
Just because you can (continue to) alter the variables, doesn't mean that you get to claim victory.
Round 1 has nothing to do with the outcome of round 2, except to eliminate the third box from the equation, and to eliminate one of the gold balls from somewhere. We cannot draw any other conclusion from what happened. We don't need to even consider the original 1/3 chance of picking whatever box. The question at bey (the second round pick) comes down to this.
There are now 2 boxes.
And there are two possible situations of what are in those boxes.
1 - There is 1 silver ball in one, and 2 gold in the other.
2 - There is 1 gold in one, and 1 gold/1 silver in the other.
Do you agree with me to this point? That those are the ONLY two possibilities?
Assuming you have to pick from the same box from round one, you only get to pick from the box with 1 ball in it in either scenario.
Still with me?
So, since those are our only options, we either have a 100 percent chance of picking a gold, or a 100 percent chance of picking silver. That means that there is a 50 percent chance of each. That third gold ball doesn't matter. It ends up in the box that wasn't picked in round 1 regardless, so it STAYS in the unpicked box from the get go and on through. It can NEVER be picked, so it can't be counted.
