Let's try to have a civil discussion. That is the cur
The stories and information posted here are artistic works of fiction and falsehood.
Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.
Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.
Let's try to have a civil discussion.
That is the current state of the election according to averages taken from polls for every state. RealClearPolitics makes all of these polls accessible here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Only North Carolina and Florida are still in play as Clinton and Trump are literally in an exact tie in those two states.
In every other state, polls show the states have already made up their minds on who they want to elect for the most part. For example, Trump is winning by 5% over Clinton in Georgia and Clinton is beating Trump by 19.3% in California.
So, North Carolina and Florida. Let's do some math.
There are four ways this can go down:
> Trump wins FL
> Clinton wins NC
> Clinton wins the election with 275 electoral college votes.
> Trump wins NC
> Clinton wins FL
> Clinton wins the election with 289 electoral college votes.
> Trump loses both states
> Clinton wins NC & FL
> Clinton wins the election with 304 electoral college votes.
> Trump wins NC & FL
> Clinton loses both states
> Trump wins the election with 278 electoral college votes.
Assuming the polls aren't outright lies, 3 out of 4 of these realistic scenarios end with Clinton becoming president. The statistical odds are in her favor even if the popular vote for these two states isn't on election day.
Things Trump has going for him:
- Ohio has decided the last 14 elections; meaning, whoever Ohio votes for generally wins the presidency. Trump is winning in Ohio.
- Obama didn't win North Carolina. North Carolina is generally a red state which means it will be harder for Clinton to win there.
As it stands, it looks like Clinton will be president, but it is a very close race.
Im gonna tell you this right now, and you have no reason to believe me, but Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.
I drive all over western PA for work. During the primaries, there were plenty of Bernie signs out. There were still Obama stickers on cars. There were a few Trump signs here and there. Now? Nothing. Those Bernie yards, I've driven past them, there's nothing. The Trump signs are everywhere. And there's big ones out now too. The Obama stickers are gone. I have seen exactly ONE Hillary bumper sticker in 4 months. Her only stronghold here would be Philadelphia. Philly loves their shitty Democrats, but they love their cops more. And their cops endorsed Trump. Temple U is in Philly. Hillary just had an event there, and she barely got 200 students to show up. Obama drew 10,000 there before.
She has no momentum. She has no public support. The motivation to vote died when Bernie stepped out.
She will not win Pennsylvania.
If you want to read more, look up Selena Zito. She has a great article about Dems who work blue collar jobs and are voting for Trump.
>>704777016
Trump isn't going to win PA, bud. He's very behind in the polls there.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
>>704777016
Dude western PA is always red. But Pittsburgh and Philly will pull the weight and make majority blue.
Yeah, he's not winning VA.
Troll harder
Fucking electoral votes are stupid. Each state should have 1. That's it.
No more california, florida, and ny fucking everything up for everyone. Liberal shitholes.
>>704777283
>>704777288
These are correct.
Also, I doubt he'll hang on to Ohio.
>>704777692
That's even worse than electoral college, dumbass. It should be popular vote.
>>704777516
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html
>>704777283
>>704777516
Haha these though. OP is dumb.
>>704778127
America is an anti-democracy, where the majority doesn't rule, but the minority does. Popular vote would be the opposite of that. In other words, it would never happen.. "muh discrimination" and all that stupid shit.
One vote, each state. Equal representation, period.
> dumbass
Guess we get to look forward to a few weeks of Florida recounts and lost ballets
>>704778055
You are wrong. That is all.
Because so many new yorkers move to north carolina its confused now...
>>704778626
Thanks for explaining things
Cleveland Fag Reporting In: MAGA
There was a terrorist attack 2 days ago fags
Votes for trump will just keep rising significantly among undecided people
If another happens, trump wins for sure
>>704778563
There's a reason that didn't happen when they made the constitution, and that's because it makes individual votes in more populated states count less than individual votes in less populated states
>>704778563
That is the most stupid thing I've heard all day.
States like Wyoming and Vermont (~500,000) should have the same voting power as states like Cali and Texas (~30,000,000)?
>>704778563
>Wyoming (less than 600,000 people) should have as much say as California (38 million people)
>>704775972
Polls and votes don't matter
>>704775972
this will be the result . dubs confirms it
>>704779523
forgot pic
>>704777016
1. Bumpers stickers don't vote.
2. PHILLY
>>704779106
>>704779170
>>704779331
It would avoid minorities flooding certain cities/states. It makes perfect sense.
The system is shit. In 20 or 30 years, your entire lives will be dictated by minorities.. who are no longer minorities but will surely still expect to be treated like minorities.
In 40 years or so, Cali and NY will decide every election.
> nah, THAT'S NOT STUPID.
>>704779773
Ok, here's he solution: make elections democratic. Get rid of the electoral college, switch to the popular vote. That way, the will of the majority of citizens will be represented in government.
>>704779170
The only reason states even matter in the election is because of the electoral college. If we went to a straight popular vote it wouldn't matter what fucking state you're from, and everyone's vote would be equal.
>>704779594
That is best-case scenario for Trump with him winning every battleground state, which isn't likely. Even winning FL, OH, NC, NH, NV and IA doesn't get him to 270 lol.
>>704780164
But then all the big cities get decide the elections. Is that fair to those living in rural areas of the country?
>>704778563
Actually
The electoral vote was set in place to prevent any major group from swaying polls, as a protection against large independent groups from taking control, as a way to ensure fair government.
The Electoral vote system now is a way for the government to control who gets the office.
The electoral system is corrupt and robs Americans of their vote. A state that's primarily Trump might have a representative of democratic alignment, and as rights go, that representative can lawfully vote for whomever they choose regardless of what the majority of that state wants, to either protect their position politically or to secure a good deal.
So it sounds to me, you fucking uncultured swine, that the electoral system is in dire need of expiration as the voting power of Americans is in the hands of government and not the people.
If it were a one to one vote without electoral systems, Obama would have never been elected. Bush either. This is why Al Gore demanded recounts, because if everyone was treated equally, he would have won.
Tell me again about how dumb it is to disregard electoral system?
>>704780164
Same result. Minorities are breeding like rabbits with little to no depression, suicide, mind-med participation, etc.
Whites. The exact opposite.
We voted ourselves into a genocide.
>>704780259
>>704780302
>everyone's vote would be equal.
Sounds good to me.
i'll just leave this here
charlesortel.com
>>704775972
>civil discussion
>/b/
>>704780435
>Trump supporter trying to talk about corrupt charitable foundations
Oh man, that is hilarious.
>>704780382
No man, you're not getting it. I don't think representatives from each state should cast a single vote. I think each state should have a single vote decided by their citizens. A state-based popular vote.
Each state, one vote.
>>704780392
Fuck white people. I'm white and my race is a fucking embarrassment.
Pathetic fucking spineless cowards.
>>704780666
who said I'm a trump supporter?
>>704780879
the guy you linked to is
>>704775972
>very close race
why? how came these things to pass, america?! a liar and a racist are tied neck and neck to be your next leader, what the actual fuck?
You have VA red when Clinton has led in every poll there since July.
Let's try this again.
>>704781062
Why do you think Hillary is a liar? What has she lied about?
>>704780767
It doesn't matter how bad-ass a wolf is when it's chained to the ground, anon.
>>704780382
>>704780676
That's an inherently unfair system. A voter from a state of 300,000 would have 10 times the voting power as a voter from a state of 3 million
>>704781033
The first published paper about the clinton foundation found on
charlesortel.com
goes back to april 2015. you're stretching....
and really who wouldnt be a trump supporter if you read this stuff, everyone should read it.
>>704781180
You're right.
>>704781192
what is the last thing she said?
whatever it was, she lied about that.
>>704780382
>Obama would never have been elected
Obama won 52.9% of the vote in 2008. He still would have been elected under a direct election.
>>704775972
The debates are going to give Hillary a bump in the polls and that's probably going to be the decider.
Trump is going to need something big to happen if he wants to have a decent shot at winning.
>>704781192
>>704781612
That's a very productive response
>>704781342
Theres pros and cons to both sides of y'alls debate. One vote per state means that ultimately each vote weighs the same in terms of importance. However...
States with a bigger population would suffer because their vote would weigh the same as a state with a small population. But I find myself asking why that would be a bad thing. It shouldn't be about quantity, it should be about quality.
>>704781342
The current system is inherently unfair on the opposite end. Do you have a problem with that?
It would do two things, over the course of decades: equalize populations across states, and break states up into more logical sizes.
> California broken up into 10 or so states? Sounds good to me.
>>704781830
watch her lie, its physics
>>704781528
new thread with accurate map
>>704782026
>>704781646
Hillary had an awful week followed by 5 days of recovery from pneumonia followed by a terrorist attack in NYC and she's STILL LEADING.
So I guess what I'm saying is Trump is basically fucked unless some fantasy Bradley effect shit goes down.
Not bloody likely.
>>704782102
Why would we need a new thread?
The map is here >>704781528
>>704781830
this is me >>704781684
speechless because of how retarded your question was.
>>704781246
well put
>>704782295
So... you don't have any examples?
>>704782274
May people will be replying without reading all the comments, which will be confusing.
>>704782208
>pneumonia
this is the same pneumonia she has been fighting since she postponed the first benghazi hearings.
lol
Her doctor told me.
>>704781180
what he said.
538 has hillary crushing in virginia
Somebody educate me on how Trump could ever win the electoral college. Democrats obviously won't back him, and it seems like the republicans would only vote for him to be anti-democrat. Serious question, I don't usually do politics.
>>704782373
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jun/19/hillary-clintons-long-list-of-lies/
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/t-day-evergreen-7-wildest-lies-hillary-clinton/
http://www.politifact.com/personalities/hillary-clinton/statements/byruling/false/
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-hillary-clinton-lies-health-emails-benghazi-20160920-story.html
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=hillary+clinton+lied
>i have tons
>>704782589
the non-contageous bacterial pneumonia that everyone around the office has been getting.... right
lol
>>704781999
>these trips
new thread:
>>704783054
>>704782835
Voter turn-out. That's what decides most elections.
The idea of a true "undecided voter" is bizarre. The only significant number of undecided voters are those that are undecided between voting for the candidate closest to their views or staying home.
>>704781999
>>704782035
It shouldn't matter what state you're from when you vote for the president. I live in Texas, with a 1 vote per state and with the electoral college, it doesn't matter what I vote unless I vote republican. My choice doesn't exist
>>704783136
>70 posts
>new thread
How fucking sad is it that all of our president might ultimatley be decided by the sister-fucking hicks of North Carolina and fucking Florida?
>>704783998
That's the electoral college for ya
>>704783998
I think you're confusing NC with AL. As a Georgian, I consider NC to be in the North.
>>704783321
Your vote already doesn't matter.
>>704783998
yeah fuck FL. nothing but sand gnats and sunburn
there was still no debate you useless cretins
biggest swing is always at the end of the race
>>704784443
>Texan native
>moved to FL for the worst 3 years of my life
dont get me started on florida.
>>704784559
where America goes to die. Yet, Britbongs love it there for some reason. I have British family and I'm always trying to get them to stop visiting Orlando. I'm like "Hey, come see Utah. Check out the Smoky Mountains in North Carolina. Let's go to D.C.." but no Britbongs only want to holiday to Florida.
>>704784559
>>704784443
Floridian reporting in. These are exactly right. There's not a part of florida that isn't shit and you shouldn't be here for anything longer than 3 days.
>>704784409
Also from Georgia. NC is even deeper south than us, believe it or not
>>704785035
Brits? Really? How bizarre. I lived in the TBA, out near Clearwater. Jesus christ what a shit hole. The entire state looks like it never even bothered to rebuild after an apocalypse that happened 40 years ago. I've never had a doctor call me a liar before either, thanks Florida.
>>704775972
>Let's try to have a civil discussion
I'm terribly sorry, but that is a statistical improbability.
What I've chosen to do, is revel in what has been revealed about the world and the people within it. It's nice to know where you seem to genuinely stand in the grand scheme of
>petty
things.
>>704785703
kek
If i roll trips, everyone flips shit and this post isnt civil anymore.
I'm in CA Silicon Valley. Biggest shithole infestation of stupid liberals! CA sucks!
>>704775972
Ah yes.
Good old CA, IL and NY. Bastions of the ideal state that will lock in who gets put into office for this election and many more to come!
Just look at how perfect CA, IL and NY are and know that they should be the mark which the rest of the county aims for!
>>704786291
You're not wrong. I hate these liberal gun laws. California would be a much better state if they took their water crisis seriously and had Georgia's gun laws.
>>704786530
Libtards and gun laws you say?
Just think. those little speks of blue make the masses of red bend over to suck on that sweet sweet government dick.
>>704786775
Wait a second-- you mean criminals with guns are more likely to shoot people who DONT have guns? Ground breaking. And useless.
>>704787255
It's not useless. It means in order to prevent shootings, you arm everyone.
>>704786775
>>704787255
this is a statistic for "gun violence" so its reasonable that suicide alone would turn all the high gun ownership areas into blue areas...
>>704787557
doesnt explain ME or NH. far west PA, mississippi, new mexico, border areas of texas, or the exact reverse of population to red/blue in Minnesota, utah, ok, half of florida
so about half the map. what you've just come up with is a statistical error. Turns out there are red cities after all.
>>704781062
Aren't we all Racist here?
>>704789272
>deplorable
ftfy
>>704787462
No it means you have shit sources when it comes to infographics.
>>704787831
is right.
>>704789272
apparently.
>>704781062
What the actual fuck.
>>704787255
Or maybe, just maybe, the places with high incidents of gun violence have been the places where people vote for those who actually seem concerned about gun violence.
Look at the Texas border. High gun violence, blue voters, and plenty of guns for everyone because it's Texas. If Republicans want to stop gun control laws, they need to show that they care about gun violence first
>>704788425
Lol, just did a bit more research. Those maps do look similar, in fact a bit too simalar. It matches up county by county with the 2004 election results. Yeah, my map had a bit of statistical error, but unless this is some impressive corelation, thats literally an identical map. Idk, maybe your right and every single one of those are so directly caused by liberalism that there is 0 room for error. Or maybe your just some shithead who found some bogus shitty jpeg online and has decided hes an expert.
>>704790681
>they'll ever care about gun violence
Sandy Hook was our worst case scenario. Tiny tots getting shot in their classrooms and no one gave a fuck about our kids safety, just about the headline in their FB feeds. If the thousands of deaths per year due to gun violence aren't enough to change their minds, nothing will short of someone sticking a gun in THEIR face at walmart when they left their open carry in the glovebox. Republicans are selfish cunts. They don't want to sacrifice anything if they aren't getting something in return, and that usually ends up translating to "higher taxes to pay for shit?! I DONT EVEN NEED THAT SHIT WHY SHOULD I HAVE TO PAY FOR IT!?"
>abortion clinics
>health care
>food stamps
>>704779105
kek at the media
> looks like two or three lone wolves got together and did this
> so any chance that this was a terrorist action?
> oh none non at all
so scared of giving trump a potential boost that they literally try to downplay a terrorist attack
>>704791789
Better than saying it was a terrorist attack when they didn't know if it was or not
>>704791959
How so?
>>704790895
Americas gun problem stems from Americas nigger problem.
>>704791959
Or you know they could have said something along the lines of
>At this time we cant say for sure if it was or was not a terror attack.
>>704787462
That's why if I ever get rich I'm going to start a program to get lots and lots of guns to gun-deprived minorities - maybe if I'm lucky I can even score some of that surplus military hardware shit the cops have.
We'll be more free once I've got an AR-15 into the hands of every deprived latino kid in the nation!
>>704791959
guy yelling allah ackbar
isis taking credit
hmmm we have no clue guys but isnt Obama the shinniest black person ever?
k
>>704792187
Because they shouldn't give out speculation as news, that's for the tabloids. Stuff like this happens when they do
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001108/aponline183922_000.htm
hi
>>704792786
ok explain why they tried to downplay it calling it a pressure cooker with wires, and then jumped on trump for calling it a bomb, which it was.
>>704793013
Because when people hear bomb they think of a mass produced military weapon, which would imply that ISIS is taking a much more active, coordinated offense to the US. As of now the FBI doesn't know if the men were part of an official ISIS cell, or just guys swayed by ISIS who made their own IEDs
Calling it a bomb vs IED is nuanced communication that trump is incapable of
>>704775972
hilary is going to win....sadly
OP's picture is literally, factually false. You can go to that website, and make the map look like whatever you want. Seriously.
http://www.270towin com/
>>704794166
OP's map is based on polls, dumbass. Did you even read the OP?
538 has him winning both FL and NC
>>704794300
>it's based on polls
>>704775972
>Assuming the polls aren't outright lies
So, if the polls are outright lies, then it is quite factually false. Mathematically, and maybe logically sound. But, ultimately false.
Let's keep in mind that the source/s weren't stated in OP's post. We've to make our own assumptions as to where the percentages came from, even from sources we can find on our own.
r8 or h8
>>704794749
He still loses though unless he can manage to win Virginia also
>>704795200
Louisiana isn't voting Democrat.
Pennsylvania isn't voting Republican.
>>704775972
Obama won NC in 2008 but not 2012.
>>704795301
last Louisiana poll i checked had clinton ahead, guess i just read it wrong. thanks, i'll edit it.
i legitimately think that pa will flip
>>704794777
The sources are literally in OP's post. Just follow the link. PDFs of all of the polls are available there. You can make your own judgements about how the polls were conducted by actually reading them.
>>704795522
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/la/louisiana_trump_vs_clinton-5696.html
>>704779718
Philadelphia, dipshit.
>>704780302
Ofcourse it is. The majority of people live in big cities. You think some hillbillies in the middle of no where are more important?
>>704795670
yeah, thanks friend
>>704795508
This. Clinton has it in the bag.
>>704795719
I don't agree with tyranny of the majority
>>704795200
So you know nothing about political demographics in the US?
>>704784443
>All of Florida is a beach.
>>704796244
Basically
Trump could win. A month ago it looked like he had no realistic shot. Sources from the Clinton campaign are now saying that they don't expect to win Ohio or Florida. Georgia has now gone back to Trump. Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada are still realistically in play for Trump. If he can pull 2 out of those 3, he wins. As of yesterday Nate Silver gave him a 41% chance of winning. Those are pretty good odds.
>>704792201
what about blacks + hispanic/latino?
>>704795856
more people identify as conservative than moderate or liberal. but it's the moderates that flip elections.
>>704795200
Colorado is a red state this election.
>>704775972
polls do not reflect voter energy or apathy
there is a difference between calling someone and asking who they would vote for, and that person getting off the couch to go vote
Obama had record turnout when he won, first black president meme has that effect, blacks shattered their usual piss-poor turnout and went to the polls in droves
hillary is not reaching this level of voter engagement
her rallies are growing smaller by the day, if they aren't cancelled outright
her base is growing increasingly disenchanted with her love for big business and complete lack of transparency
she is losing support among millennials
she is even losing some black voters to trump, who is doing pretty well in this most loyal democratic demographic
Republicans on the other hand saw the greatest primary turnout in history this year.
Trump broke the record set by Bush Jr. for most votes received in the primary, despite a field of 17 candidates who stayed in WAY past any viable chance of winning, for the sole sake of forcing a contested convention
by all accounts, the republican party has grown considerably with a new candidate and platform that foregoes some of the social conservatism to embrace a wider range of republican voters
If republicans coalesce around Trump, he wins, and it's looking like that's gonna be the case
States where Trump is a mere 1-2% behind offer trump a real upset chance, because those trump voters are pissed off and they WILL be at the polls on voting day, and hillary's increasingly disenchanted base wont
>>704795200
Not bad, but Louisiana is wrong. The cities won't be able to carry the vote. Laffy is a college town and most of the students there hate Hillary then the rest are all pro trump. Baton Rouge has a good bit of college students as well, but most that i've talked to doesn't want to vote. Most are trowing it. Then we have NOLA, and that place is full of Dems and its a pile of shit. Other then the culture of the city, mostly the french quarter, its complete shit. The tri parish, bayou region is hardcore trump.
>>704787462
Hasn't worked in other states.
>>704795856
How is it tyranny. It's called majority rule. Which is easily the fairest way to do things.
Wait until the new polls after the Islamic terrorist attacks. Hillary's policy to import millions of potential terrorists to kill Americans will finish her off.
>>704781062
except he is not racist. this word gets thrown at anyone who isn't democrat and its bullshit.
>>704775972
Virginia is blue you dumb shit.
>>704775972
Wubba lubba dub dub I don giv a fuk man3
>>704790488
You I like you
>>704775972
>PA
>Blue
Top kek.
Shill harder
I've never seen so many gop voters come out of the woodwork.
>>704775972
Mex-American here, I would seriously vote for Trump if Johnson wasn't running. Fuck Hillary. Fuck her so much.
I'd rather deal with racist whites than wetbacks and niggers who breed the drug dealers and gangbangers of tomorrow. At least the racist whites won't mug me.
That being said, Trump will be a horrible President, and I'm looking forward to it if he wins. Better than that horrible wench cunt Shillary.
Fuck you all.
>>704779170
Texas has 27, Cali has 40.
>>704786530
There is no water crisis, majority of the water is used for growing bullshit like almonds. I agree with you on the gun thing, gangbangers would see their numbers dwindle.
>>704789272
Americans hate each other for all kinds of reasons, race being just one of many reasons. Bunch of miserable fucks.
>>704775972
Polls don't mean jack shit, it's an easily manipulated means of propaganda.
The poll taking companies and people doing the polls have a desired outcome and they simply poll target demographics (or choose not to poll certain demographics), to give their numbers the desired slant.
For instance, on all major news networks Gary Johnson polls like 3%. The truth is that out of all registered voters, he actually has about 20% of the vote and the numbers are going up.... but all major news networks deliberately under sample people under 30 (the libertarians main support block)...
The idea is that if people see that their candidate is polling low, rather than encourage them to get out there and make up for it, it tends to dissuade them from voting at all.
tl;dr
Polls don't mean anything and are easily corrupted.
>>704777016
They'll stuff as many fake ballots in Philadelphia as necessary.
