Do you guys have some pictures like pic related for me
50%
>>677846751
are u mentally disabled?
2/3
>>677846828
He's right you moron
>>677846828
fine, what's the answer?
>>677846958
2/3
I think an eighth or sixteenth for some reason.
It's probably some permutation or factorial idk
>>677846669
50%
>>677846669
12/35th
ez mode
>>677846669
If you don't put the ball back, 50%
If you do put the ball back, 75%
>>677846751
>>677846950
It's ok Tyrone, you tried.
>>677846669
Its not box on rite.
Is box in middle or left. U dunno witch.
If left yellow, if middle Grey. 50%
pretty sure this actually just is 50%, you already picked a gold.
"probability next ball is gold", silver/silver is completely out of the question here that box is worth nothing.
>>677846994
Why not just say 66.66666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666desu66666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666%?
The final answer is 50%
>>677847237
"same box also will be gold" retard can't even read
Possibility 1: You pick one gold ball from first bag, the next ball WILL be gold
Possibility 2: You pick the other gold ball from bag one, next ball WILL be gold.
Possibility 3: You pick the gold ball that's with the grey ball, it will NOT be gold.
2 out of the 3 possibilities end in you picking a second gold ball. The third bag isn't part of the probability because it's impossible when you assume the first ball you pick is gold.
2/3 chance is the answer.
>>677846669
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
>>677847288
right but there's only a 1/3 chance you picked the gold ball from box #2, but a 2/3 chance you picked a gold ball from box #1. Therefore, you have a 1/3 chance of not drawing a gold ball (box #2), but a 2/3 chance of drawing the other gold ball from box #1.
2/5 final answer
3/6 + 3/6
2/5 + 3/5
>>677846828
>>677846751
No. S/He's not. Each draw is a different roll. We know that the first ball was gold, that eliminates the two silver box. So the real question is, what are the chances you have the box with two gold balls of the two possible choices. The chance of that is 50%. Suck my dick, any statistics or math fags. These are facts with simple math, simple always trumps abstract.
>>677846950
But what if he pulled it from the one with two silvers? Then it's 0% chance.
>>677847453
wrong
>>677847453
It's a box pick and not a ball pick so ball 1&2 from box 1 counts only as 1 pick
You have 3 boxes, in the first stage you have 1/3 chance for any of the boxes.
Once you remove your first ball, and you see it is gold, you know for sure your next ball is going to be either silver, or gold.
Since the first ball is already a known fact, you only have to calculate what your chance is on finding the NEXT gold ball: 50%
TL;DR: I'm a math-fag and i just explained why it is 50%
>>677847746
Good explanation you cuck
>>677847453
50%chance that the box you randomly picked is the one with 2 gols balls - no matter which one of them.
50% chance you picked the box with 1 gold and 1 silver - next ball will be silver.
Godfuckingdammit its not that hard stop trying to make up shit.
>>677846669
gr8 b8. Made me reply. The odds are 1/3. Bc you're picking 2 balls out of the same box your choosing a box not balls. There is only one box with 2 gold balls.
Not surprised OP makes a post about handling balls.
Didn't we do this earlier today?
It is 2/3 and a way to demonstrate elementary probability,
>>677847453
Possibility 1 and 2 are the exact same thing. It doesn't matter which one you pick, the other will automatically be the 2nd one. You either picked from box 1 or box 2, so it's 50/50
>>677847828
Fucking thank you!!!!
>>677847651
Yes. He is. Same box. So you fed didn't pick up the all silver box. Which means the next ball you pick is one of two outcomes. 50/50 shot
>>677847672
It says that he starts with a gold ball so box 3 is irrelevant at the beginning
>>677847746
>>677847826
>>677847828
>>677847867
>>677847930
>>677847976
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
you're all fucking stupid
>>677847555
Those trips are wasted on the likes of you
>>677848044
Omfg this!!!
>>677847928
>>677847887
No, because one possibility is precluded in the proposition of the problem. There for two choices. 50/50.
>>677847453
Probability of B given A. A is a given we already have a golden ball. Either we are in box 1 or in box 2 dumbass.
33% My greasy nigger friend.
>>677846994
the question is about the probability that the next ball you take from THE SAME box will be also gold.
so you picked a box with a gold ball, it leaves one out
and it can be either a box with 2 gold ores or a box with silver and gold ore. 50:50
>>677848113
Finally, someone else isn't as ass about this
>>677847521 (You)
God you guys are dumb. It's 2/5. Just count the balls and make a fraction.
If you said anything other than 50/50 then you have poor reading and comprehension skills
>>677847828
Hand back your degree immediately, if you have one.
>>677847928
I asked for more pics like this so its not my fault that all the guys take the riddle
>>677847555
[Gold, Gold] [Gold (picked), Silver] = next ball is silver
[Gold (Picked), Gold] [Gold, Silver]= next ball is gold
These are the only two possibilities which means it is 50%
>>677848343
They're all just going to stick with it being a box picking problem when it's actually a ball picking problem. They're so focused on the boxes that they aren't noticing that there are THREE gold balls. Picking one gold ball over the other in box one ARE two different outcomes.
>>677848142
The probability that GG would produce a gold coin is 1.
The probability that SS would produce a gold coin is 0.
The probability that GS would produce a gold coin is 1⁄2
Originally, all six coins were equally likely to be chosen.
The chosen coin cannot be from drawer S of box GS, or from either drawer of box SS.
So it must come from the G drawer of box GS, or either drawer of box GG.
The three remaining possibilities are equally likely, so the probability that the drawer is from box GG is 2⁄3.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
>>677846669
1/2 probability, the question is of the probability AFTER already finding 1 gold ball, cutting off the box with the silvers, meaning all you have is the probability of 1 box vs 1 box
2/3 chance to pick a box with gold in it and 1/3 chance to pick the box with two golds in it
So if middle box is picked first it will be 1/3 chance to get first box.
Answer equals 1/3
If first box is chosen first it will be a 2/3 chance to get a box with a gold ball in it but a 1/2 chance to choose gold on the second box.
1/2 * 2/3 = 1/3
Final answer is 1/3
>>677848589
Probability Estimation = Abstract math.
3 boxes, only one meets the criteria, therefore 1/3
>>677848545
Yeah, it's painful how intransigent some people on /b/ are. But, these threads tend to die down once you post an appropriate link, and the passionate morons go away to rage in quiet, without actually learning anything.
/rant
>>677846669
The other ball is radioactive and the cat was already dead
Its called a paradox for a reason. Try this out and it Will be 50/50, but in the minds of eggheads its 2/3
>>677846669
50% in the case in the OP, 2/3 in Bertrand's paradox where the other ball can be from another box
>>677846669
50/50. By picking a gold ball, then you know that your next ball will either be from the first or second box which will be a 50/50 chance.
>>677848494
Idk if I can find a pic so I'll type one out.
You have a boat tied up at the dock
There is a ladder on the boat going into the water.
The ladder has six rungs 1 ft apart.
3 rings under water and 3 above water.
The tide rises at one ft per hour.
If the tide comes in for 3 hours how many ladder rings are under water?
>>677848786
/thread
>>677848632
That was deliberate...
>>677847568
Ya tried a bit too hard there
Wrong
Pretty obviously 50%
>>677847555
yes but it doesn't matter. the question states YOU HAVE A GOLD BALL and what are the chances you PICK A GOLD BALL FROM THE SAME BOX?
its 50%
>>677848977
Still three because the boat will rise with the tide
>>677849083
i see your reading comprehension is as bad as your math.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
"A box is chosen at random, a random drawer is opened, and a gold coin is found inside it. What is the chance of the coin on the other side being gold?"
>>677848692
Omg you already picked the fucking box and drew a gold ball!!!! You don't get to pick another box and the last ball in your prechosen box can only be one of two things
>>677848692
the question already says you have a gold ball, having 1/3 or 2/3 chance to pick a ball with gold in it from the initial statements is invalid
there's 3 gold balls and one silver.
Eliminate one gold and you're left with 2:1 gold to silver. That's a probability if 67% you'll draw another gold ball now. Just because you pick a box doesn't matter. The balls could be in the same box and the odds remain the same.
>>677849187
Good reader.
>>677848786
the actual question states you know for a fact you have a gold ball, you are only trying to find the probability of the next ball in YOUR gold box.
there could be 1 million Silver Silver ball boxes before the question, the answer is still 50%
>>677849451
That would be true if you also hadn't picked a gold ball as well
Here's the one true answer:
Before picking up one ball there is a 1/3 chance, because only one box has 2 gold balls.
After picking up a gold ball there is 1/2 chance because one of the two boxes that has a gold ball has 2 gold balls.
This thread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjYSR8oOToI
>>677847316
oh you're right, I'm an idiot
>>677848589
No, if you consider the theory Schroedinger's cat (Which I am basing it loosely and don't know the actual theory so fuck you if I get it wrong) you would not know which gold ball from GG has been picked and it is equally likely of it being both so we can imagine it as a state the they have both been picked and regardless of what happens, from GG there will always be another gold to pick.
Gold privilege is giving the first box TWO chances
>>677848848
You're ignoring the wording of the OP.
The odds that the second ball you pull will be gold, as the first ball is removed from the equation entirely. Since the first ball only seeks to determine that you have chosen either box one or two, it's irrelevant, so treat the boxes as though they contain one ball, gold, or silver. One, or the other. 50:50, if you will.
>>677849739
Cause he's wrong
>>677848977
none because a ladder has rungs and not rings.
>>677849451
you're only looking for the probability of your box not both, friend.
>>677846669
50%, easy
W
>>677849345
>>677849309
>>677849046
Well i now know this a childrens word problem and basic odds
People like me solve math without reading enough
People like you read and do what your told
The cats already dead!
>>677849814
This is my last attempt to educate you:
http://blog.zymergi.com/2013/06/bertrands-box-paradox.html
>>677849913
Lol. Missed that last rung.
>>677849685
this. the wording is intentionally vague to cause conflict
>>677848977
how long is the rope on which the boat is tied to the dock ?
>>677850111
For the sake of the riddle it's 21.75 meters and a half foot
>>677850065
Yet again you ignore the wording. The question does not add any detail, it simply applies to the material. Basically, this Paradox is asinine.
>>677850324
which foot there are various lenghts of each foot for each nation which used it in the past ... unlike meter ... metric system :<
It's quite simple actually.
You have already picked the gold ball... that means that you got the box number one or two, that being said it, pretty much dismisses the box with 2 silvers.
You have to look at it from the perspective of the boxes, not balls, you already know, that you picked one of the first two, so there are only 2 possible outcomes
There is actually a term in mathematics for something like that... but I am not a native english speaker, so I don't know it... instead of dividing the number of desired outcomes by the number of all possible outcomes, u divide it by the number of outcomes that match the given condition (getting one gold ball first)
calculating probability like that goes like this
P(getting gold after already getting gold - desired outcome on the condition that we already got a box with gold)=P(picking the box with 2 gold - desired outcome)/P(picking the box with at least one gold - condition)=(1/3)/(2/3)=1/2=50%
>>677846669
the way I see it:
we know first draw is a gold ball so we either drew from box one or box two
let's assume the balls aren't put back into the boxes after the draw, that means we either have 100% chance to draw another gold ball from box one or 0% chance to draw another gold ball from box two, which means we have 50% chance total to draw another gold ball
if we assume the balls are put back however, we have 100% chance to get another gold ball from box one and 50% chance to get another one from box two, which makes it 75% this time
Literally the only way this could be different from 50% is if you are putting the ball back in the box. That increases the odds to 75%.
>>677850677
there are two possible outcomes, but not equally likely. if you picked a gold ball, then you know you either have box #1 or box #2. but not with a 50/50 chance. you have a 2/3 chance that you have box #1, and only a 1/3 chance of having box #2.
>>677849754
>if you consider the theory of Schroedinger's cat
>I don't know the actual theory
>>677850855
They're not asking the odds you have the box. They're asking the odds that the next ball will be Gold. Y'all need to learn some reading comprehension.
2/3
(if you calculate with formula and don't guess)
>>677851151
those two odds are related, though. you've already excluded box #3, therefore you yourself are taking into account which box you have. apologies if you're too stubborn to admit you're wrong, or too stupid to read a wikipedia article that's in fairly basic english. but you're wrong.
OKAY FUCKTARDS LISTEN UP. IMAGINE THAT THERE IS TWO BOXES THAT HAVE TWO BALLS IN EACH. THEY ARE CONNECTED BY A STRING AND ONE STRING HAS TWO GOLD, THE OTHER ONE GOLD AND A SILVER. NOW IMAGINE THAT THESE BOXES ARE ONLY SHOWING YOU ONE GOLD AND THE OTHER BALL IS HIDDEN UNDERNEATH BUT STILL CONNETED VIA THE STRING. YOU CAN PICK UP ONE OF THE BALLS ON SHOW. WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY THAT THE BALL UNDERNEATH IS GOLD.
Well. The balls underneath are either a gold or a silver so that means.... Guess what? 50% NOW SHUT THE FUCK UP AND GET ON WITH YOUR LJVES
>>677847828
You are a pretty dumb math fag.
Btw,im also a math fag,not as dumb tho
>>677849309
The problem in your wikipedia article and the problem in this pic are worded differently. You need reading comprehension on the pic in this thread.
>>677850598
American
>>677850993
I don't know the actual wording of the theory but I know the key principles.
>A cat in a box with poison
Clearly kept captive by the average /b/tard due to a roll thread
>We can't tell if the cat is dead or alive so we create a new state where it is both
Similar to tumblrinas and genders
>>677848848
that is not always the case. i was introduced to the monty hall problem ~9 years ago on /b/
i raged, then i read the wiki article, then i felt like a jackass and became smarter
since you got a gold ball, you're in one of the two left boxes.
1/3 chance of being in the mixed box, 2/3 the double gold box. Aka. 1/3 of the time it's 0% that the other ball is gold, and 2/3 the chance is 100%. Multiply probabilities ==> answer is 2/3.
>>677846669
GG
GS
SS
You picked a gold ball. Your box therefore is either:
GG
GS
What is the probability the other ball - in the same box you just picked from - is gold as well?
50%.
G[G]
OR
G[S]
We know SS is impossible, therefore we must draw our probability from this new matrix of boxes.
Anyone who disagrees is either trolling or just plain dumb.
>>677852399
read the wiki you fucking imbecile, just read it
>>677852399
wrong, you will be in GG more often than GS. See my post >677852395 for the correct answer.
>>677846669
It depends if you are as wise as you are bold. Young in limbs, and in judgment old.
>>677852575
>>677852399
I am an imbecile. I rushed to a conclusion.
It's 2/3 lol.
>>677852799
believe me, we have all been there. this shit is unintuitive. you have proven that you are able to learn and that is the most important thing. so, respect to you
>>677852399
I don't think they're trolling, they are bringing links of a problem of a similar callibre and saying that is the answer. Similar to if we had the problem of solving who did a murder and we knew that a case similar to this was done by a guy called Tyrion, it is similar so it must be him since he shot someone with a crossbow and so did this murderer. HOW COULD THIS BE WRONG?!
>>677851715
Read the entire article ya dingus
Or are the words being drawer instead of box too complex for you?
anyone who said it's 50% is retarded and never studied probability. The fact that you pick the first gold ball from the gold bag is different from the fact that you pick the second one. Even if they both are gold they're two different objects and correspond to two different situations you morons then it's 2/3
>>677853134
They may be two different objects but what it is trying to find out is if the next ball is gold. If we replace that with 1s and 0s
11 10
Does 1 not equal 1 and therefore they are the same thing?
Or this
>>677851648
>>677853134
You take box 1 or 2 and not ball 1,2 or box 2... Murican education everyone
>>677853081
Except the wiki link clearly describes the same exact conditions save balls being coins instead.
Maybe this way of thinking will help you:
If you pick a gold ball from a box you have 2 gold balls and one silver ball existing.
GG
GS
As you can see if you remove the G from one of those.
Think of this as well, you can pick a gold balls from GG in two different outcomes, and GS once.
If you pick from GG, the probability of the next ball being G is 1. If you pick from GS, then the probability is 0. This is what may lead you to think it's 1/2. But you are forgetting one thing, you can pick a gold ball from GG in TWO different outcomes.
GG
GG
GS
When you pick a ball, one of those outcomes becomes reality.
You are twice as likely to pick the box with two gold balls then you are to pick GS given this scenario.
>>677853557
you don't take a box, you're picking a ball in a box, then taking ball 1 and taking ball 2 in the gold bag are two different situations. fucking study probability
>>677853557
>insults murican education
>is completely wrong
This is why you live in a shithole and blame whitey.
WE WUZ KANGS
>>677853779
see
>>677849754
You can consider them as the same fucking ball. Also It is asking about boxes not balls. There is two boxes that can be picked
[G]
or
[S]
If you pick G, you will get G as the second ball
If you pick S, you will get S as the silver ball.
>>677846669
It's very simple.
It appears to be as if you're picking from box 1 or 2, but you're not.
It's stated that you pick a golden ball, so you have to look at the probability of picking a box where you pick a golden ball which would produce another golden ball.
3 golden balls, 2 of them will produce another golden ball if you pick it.
Answer is 2/3. Don't dismiss the probability of you picking a silver ball if you first stick your hand in box number two.
>>677854492
This has nothing to do with quantum mechanics you idiot.
>>677853531
there are 3 possibilities :
1) you picked the 1st gold ball of the gold bag and will then pick the 2nd gold ball in it
2) you picked the 2nd gold ball of the gold bag and will then pick the 1st gold ball in it (different situations, get it?)
3) you picked the gold ball from the other box and will then pick a silver ball next
there are 2/3 favorable ways for getting a gold ball again then the probability is 2/3 now gtfo
>>677846669
when you first put your hand in to grab it would be 50/50 but since 'devine intervention' steps in you get a gold ball.
so now the odds are no longer 3:3 gold ball but 2:3 that you'll get another gold ball. RIGHT?
WRONG NIGGA
Because the boxes with gold balls either have 1 gold ball or 2 gold balls. so the box with 2 silver balls is disqualified INSTANTLY. RED MAGIKARP!
Okay, so it's either silver, or gold. but the chances you grab a box with a gold ball in it is 2 times more likely to be 2 gold balls box, then 1 gold ball box. since it's "RANDOM".
So, with that in mind, if you did it randomly 3 times with every possible outcome, you'd have 2 gold ball box, 2 gold ball box, 1 gold ball box.
So the answer is still the same as the start.
2:3=2/3=66.6/100 it's another gold ball.
>>677854726
>>677854492
Further elaborating, you can pick GG twice and GS once. Your flaw in thinking is that there is only one GG outcome when there is two.
>>677854838
either of the 2 gold balls in GG box. plus the GS, 3 outcomes, 2 with another gold, 1 with SILVER LOSER BALL FOR FAGGOTS I FUCKING HATE SILVER.
I think it depends if you are asking what would be the probability, starting from the point where you are picking the box, or what is the probability from after you already drew the gold ball.
For example, I flipped a coin and got heads twice in a row. What are the odds the next flip will be heads? Well if you giving the odds of getting 3 heads in a row, the answer is 12.5%. But the way the question is worded, it's asking about the next flip, which of course would be 50%.
fuck your balls
>>677855125
it actually plays with multiple sets of probability, and even one set of non-probability (certainty?) and then a box of 2 silver balls for no reason.
>>677855161
what's all that shit
you are just making random signs up
>>677846669
75%
>>677855304
>>677855304
CLOSE
>>677855304
I could understand where the 50% fags are coming from but this stupidity just blows my mind.
This is African level stupidity.
>>677855161
"Hey, let's put random numbers in this equation that I don't know what it means!!" :pPppPPPppp
>>677855295
That's the quadratic formula and I don't unserstand why it is being used...
>>677855125
It's clearly asking the probability at the current point famalam
>>677855407
it's ment to be tricky, so I don't agree, I think a lot of people would be stumped by this. probability is quantum level ideas. in all reality probability is highly valued idea. to say africans are REALLY good at probability is to say all black people are as intelligent as Data from star trek.
>>677855523
the same reason i used this picture.
>>677855612
stop posting
never procreate
kill yourself
>>677855696
>>677855612
37.5%
>>677855799
My thoughts exactly on you. Do you know the that with statistics and probability you can predict anything in the world, and thus predict the future, to the point of even changing future outcomes and even causing people to commit suicide.
complex probability is why people think you can't predict the future, even though WE CAN. This is a simple example of that, but do you know the answer? is it 50/50 or 2/3? hint: it's the same as what you would guess in the start!
>>677856182
>>677855295
i hate you you fuckinggfag chineseblack small poki txuni , fuck you and your mom
>>677856305
I was thinking that the fact that you chose a gold ball might affect th probability so it's not 50%, but if you chose a silver ball first, the odds of picking a gold ball would still be the same in this scenario.
>>677856182
>>677846669
If you're not a moron, 100% or 0%
Gold and silver are different densities. The three boxes will weigh different amounts. And you can easily pick the heaviest and lightest boxes.
>>677856408
>>677855161
Were you trying to plug random numbers into an equation nobody understands to look smart, but your idea of super smart equation is the quadratic equation?
>>677855799
I ASK, DO YOU KNOW THE ANSWER? NIGGA?
>>677856728
yfw
>>677856182
>>677856581
you're given that you choose a box containing a gold ball (50% chance)
multiply that by the chance of picking another gold ball (2/3 or 66%)
50% x 66% = 33% or 1/3
2/3s Call me stupid all you want, this is how it is.
two boxes have a chance of you picking gold, there are three boxes. And the retards saying one thirds, fucking kill yourself. 50% people. I can understand where you're coming from.
>>677857068
right answer, WRONG REASON, it's actually because there are 3 gold balls and 1 silver ball, and you have one of the gold balls.
>>677856728
>mfw you assume the balls. Are the same size
>mfw you assume all the balls are solid and not hollow
>mfw you assume 100% metal purity and not allow
>mfw you assume the balls are made of gold and silver, and not just balls the color of gold and silver
>>677857046
not given the choice of choice, you get a box with a gold ball in it to start.
>>677856748
you think im kitting??im gonna fuck your mom later
>>677857068
You're saying the completely right answer for the completely wrong reason.
Back to school..
>>677856933
i haven't saved a new reaction face for over a year, this one made the cut, so grats
also, checked
>>677857335
Oh shit floor functions
>>677857293
*alloy
>>677846669
2/5
It's 50% newfags. Anyone saying 66% is an autist.
Pic related.
>>677858349
congratulations, you have proven that you are the biggest autist ITT by far. also you are wrong
Answer is 2/3
Pic Related
>>677858349
YOU PICK A BOX AT RANDOM,. ok so it's random.
YOU TAKE A BALL AT RANDOM. still random
>IT'S A GOLD BALL
PREDETERMINISM
>>677858349
>includes SS in his matrix
GG
>>677858845
>also you are wrong
Prove it.
>>677859265
read the wiki
>>677859265
Answer is 2/3
See >>677858867
Also. Bertrand's Box Paradox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
>>677859104
Hence why neither count in my tally is incremented unless the first draw is a gold ball. All iterations in which the first draw is a silver ball are thrown out. This is the correct interpretation based on the phrasing of the question.
>>677859363
I read the wiki. Prove why my calculation is wrong.
>>677846669
It's 50/50
>It's a gold ball
100% of the time, you get at least 1 gold ball.
The last box is only there to confuse plebians
>>677859542
The answer is 2/3.
You are TWICE AS LIKELY to have the all gold box by virtue of the fact that the first random ball drawn from the box was gold.
There are 3 ways to get a gold ball as the first ball.
2 out of those 3 ways yields a second gold ball.
1 out of those 3 ways yields a silver ball
Answer = 2/3
>>677846669
I like how every one of you faggots didn't read the original post.
>>677859858
don't think i will invest my precious brain power to look at that retarded structogram of yours. it's obviously faulty because the output is wrong
>>677859993
>It's 50/50
It's 2/3, anon. As has been explained already.
>>677859858
>Prove why my calculation is wrong.
I am not familiar with the software you used to generate your answer.
Go through your logic step by step and I will tell you where you have made the mistake.
>mfw all OP wanted was more pics like his
>He never wanted the answer to his pic
>this entire thread is off topic
>>677860707
op knew exactly what he was doing
>>677860012
Wrong. The first step in the problem, as stated by OP's picture, is to pick a random box. At that point, you have eliminated four balls from the equation. We can effectively forget the box with two silver balls even exists because we have declared that there is a 100% that the first ball was gold. Hence, we picked one of two boxes with 50% probability each.
Some edgy college freshman's Wikipedia article doesn't prove anything. Unless you can explain why a computer simulation of the problem, exactly as worded, gives 50% then you're wrong.
>>677860707
I made the OP pic. I also made this one.
I'm glad my pics are still being used to enrage retarded anons.
The answer to OP is 2/3 btw.
The answer to pic related is 1/3.
>>677860294
you will not convince that one, l2psychology
you will not reach him with math-fu, he literally cannot admit that he is wrong
>>677860294
>>677861441
see
>>677861068
>>677861068
yo man, if you want to know what the probility of the next ball being gold is, you pick a random box.
it has a gold ball in it. BECAUSE YOU TAKE A GOLD BALL FROM IT.
meaning it's only out of 2 boxes, GG and GS.
you eliminate 1 Gold ball from the start, so it's either SGG that's left from the pool of possibilities.
>>677861068
>The first step in the problem, as stated by OP's picture, is to pick a random box.
Correct.
>At that point, you have eliminated four balls from the equation.
Correct. However, you do not know which balls have been eliminated.
>We can effectively forget the box with two silver balls even exists because we have declared that there is a 100% that the first ball was gold.
It's not a chance after it has been picked and is gold. It's simply a fact at this point. So far we have:
1. Picked 1 random box from 3.
2. Picked a random ball from that box.
The ball is gold.
This is what we know so far.
>Hence, we picked one of two boxes with 50% probability each.
INCORRECT!
You need to understand that the first ball being gold affects the probability of the box that you have. You are, in fact, TWICE as likely to have the all gold box as you are to have the gold-silver box.
think of it like this.
There are 2 boxes.
1 box has 2 gold balls.
The other box has 99,999,999 silver balls and 1 gold ball.
You pick a box at random.
You draw a ball from the box at random.
The ball is gold.
Are you more likely to have the box with 2 gold balls, or the box with 1 gold ball and 99,999,999 silver balls?
Do you understand now?
The answer to OP is 2/3.
>>677861068
You are more likely to have chosen the box with two gold balls. You had 2 chances to have picked the box with gold/gold instead of 1 chance to have picked the box with gold/silver.
>>677858349
what program did you use to make this?
>>677846669
If any fucktard does this again, have this one saved for reference
>>677861886
you will not get him to admit that he is wrong, i am so sure of that.
you are a good person for even trying though!
>>677862300
Simplest explanation I think
This is a dumb bait thread. It's just not a high quality bait thread.
The question itself dismisses the box fthat has no gold ball. This leaves two boxes, and only one box has a gold ball that's still inside.
Nobody is niggerest enough to think anything other than the solution being 50%. Not even a nigger straight off the boat from AIDStopia.
So, this thread is boring as well as dumb.
>>677846669
To break it down REALLY simple:
There are 3 gold balls in total. 2 of them are in one of the boxes. Therefore, 2/3 times it's going to be from the left box. That means 2/3 not 50/50. Those saying 50/50 are ignoring the information given to us by the initial pick.
>>677861068
>Some edgy college freshman's Wikipedia article doesn't prove anything.
Jesus Christ you're a fucking idiot.
Bertrand's Box Paradox is a very well understood and popular probability problem.
Please kill yourself.
The answer is 2/3.
>Unless you can explain why a computer simulation of the problem, exactly as worded, gives 50% then you're wrong
Garbage in, garbage out.
Here is the correct simulation >>677858867 with correct solution of 2/3.
>>677862529
You have 3 ways to pick a gold ball at the start.
Pick gold ball 1 from gold/gold box.
Pick gold ball 2 from gold/gold box.
Pick the only gold ball from gold/silver box.
Out of those, 2 lead to the next pick being gold. One leads to it being silver. 2/3
>>677862300
>coin
It's balls, faggot. EPIC FAIL.
>>677846828
There are only 2 boxes with gold balls.
GG and GS. You already took one ball out and it's Gold, so the only other possibility is silver or gold. That's 50%.
Go troll somewhere else you illiterate fucking cunt.
>>677861886
>think of it like this.
>There are 2 boxes.
>1 box has 2 gold balls.
>The other box has 99,999,999 silver balls and 1 gold ball.
That completely fucking changes the problem. In that case, the chance that the second ball will be gold approaches 100% because there is a strong likelihood that you chose the first box given that your first draw was a gold.
If you put 99,999,999 gold balls and one silver into the second box, then the probability of the second ball being a gold also approaches 100% because it doesn't matter which box you have, there is a strong likelihood you will draw a second gold.
>>677862028
LabVIEW
>>677862902
You are twice as likely to have picked the box with gold/gold in the first place. There are 2 ways to get that box. Gold ball 1 or gold ball 2.
>>677862529
You have to factor in probability. Say there was 2 boxs, one had 1 gold ball and 99 silver balls, the other had 100 gold balls. If you grabbed a gold ball first, the odds of you having the box with 100 gold balls is significantly higher, because of the statistical unlikelyness that you grabbed the single gold ball in the box with 99 silver balls. The question in this thread works on the same principle, only not as many balls making it only about a 2/3 or 66.66666 chance.
>>677862921
No it doesn't and you're retarded
>>677861068
you don't elminate 4 balls, but only 2 balls when you pick a random box, since 2 of the boxes have gold balls, and all you know is you have a box with a gold ball.
>>677862803
You're not nigger enough to believe this is the correct solution. Nobody is. Prove me wrong, faggot.
>>677862921
>That completely fucking changes the problem.
it only changes the number of silver balls to illustrate to your simple brain that the first ball being gold changes the probability of the box you picked.
>In that case, the chance that the second ball will be gold approaches 100% because there is a strong likelihood that you chose the first box given that your first draw was a gold.
EGG-FUCKING-XACTLY!!! Now apply that very same logic to the OP question to see why you have a 2/3 probability of having the all gold box vs a 1/3 probability of having the gold/silver.
Surely you get it now. SURELY.
Yes?
2/3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
Okay you fuks, I just asked my professor after class, there is a name for this problem but I forget what he said, but he said the answer is 2/3rds so take that how u will
Imagine the first two boxes are one box. Take a ball out. It's gold. There is now two gold balls and one silver ball.
>>677863407
ALL WE KNOW IS YOU HAVE A BOX WITH EITHER
>GS
or
>GG
this only elminates
>SS
50/50 is correct. Dumb fucks saying 2/3 dont understand how to balance an equation.
>>677863221
You're not dumb enough to believe that because nobody is dumb enough to believe that. But you are dumb enough to think you're being a clever troll, which is wrong. You're just an obvious troll.
>>677861886
how do you get 2/3 ?
>>677863398
lol
>>677847651
Nofink abstract about it m8, you picked a gold ball, so the two silver balls box is eliminated. You are now picking another ball, and since 3 balls remain and two of them are gold balls, your chance of picking a gold ball, in simple math, is 2/3.
>>677863486
that is a great way to simplify!
>>677863556
there are 2 WAYS of having GG.
Because there are 2 equally probable ways of drawing a gold ball as the first ball from the gold/gold box vs 1 way of drawing a gold ball as the first ball from teh gold/silver box.
All possible outcomes at beginning of problem are as follows:
Gold box:
GG
GG
Gold/Silver Box:
GS
SG
Silver Box:
SS
SS
The silver box is elminated because the first ball drawn was gold.
That leaves 1 of 3 equally probable possibilities.
Gold Box:
GG
GG
Silver Box:
GS
2 out of those 3 (GG, GG, GS) will give a second gold ball.
2/3
>>677863729
>how do you get 2/3 ?
Because there are 3 equally probable possibilities and 2 of them will give you a second gold ball.
Read this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
SCIENCE: 1
INTUITION: 0
>>677863806
Stage 1, 3 boxes, 6 balls
1/3 chance
Stage 2, 1 box, 1 ball
If the gold ball was from box gold, gold, the remaining 1 ball is gold
If the gold ball was from box gold, silver, the remaininf 1 ball is silver.
1 gold, 1 silver, 1/2.
>>677863486
Good explanation.
>>677848343
did this nigger just type out "(You)" after a post number? are you fucking kidding me right now?
>>677864645
There are 2 ways to get a gold ball as the first ball from the gold box, meaning you are twice as likely to have the gold box.
2/3
>>677864898 (You)
How new are you?
>>677846669
2/3 (66%)
There are 3 golds and 1 silver in the boxes he may be picking from. One gold is removed. 2 out of the 3 remaining are gold.
>>677864898
Good problem. Still not as GOAT as the Monty Hall problem for mindfucking dumb people, but good.
I made a Python code cause I was bored
successforbox1=0
successforbox2=0
#boxnum1 = gold gold, 2 = gold silver, 3 = silver silver
for i in range(10000):
pick=rand()
if pick < (1./3.):
boxnum=1
pick2=rand()
if pick2 < (1./2.):
successforbox1+=1.
if pick2 > (1./2.):
successforbox1+=1. #Basically pointless steps
if pick > (2./3.):
boxnum=3
pick2=rand()
if pick2 < (1./2.):
successforbox2+=1.
if pick2 > (1./2.):
successforbox2=successforbox2
if (1./3.) < pick < (2./3.):
boxnum=2
print successforbox1
print successforbox2
print successforbox1/(successforbox1+successforbox2)
Well what do you know it prints out at ~0.67 every time. I hope no one actually believes it's 1/2
>>677863687
what's the equation
>dumb fucks can't write equations
>>677865181
Because you kept the non gold box as part of the code. It doesn't exist since you have to take a gold ball from one of them.
This is an example of some dork being too clever by half. They're adding or changing information without bothering to follow a very simple step by step guide.
>>677865181
Good job.
Also shows 2/3 in C. Here's the code.
#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <time.h>
int main()
{
int box, ball, trials, firstBallGold = 0, secondBallGold = 0;
double probability;
srand(time(NULL));
for(trials = 0; trials < 100000000; trials++) // run 100 million trials
{
box = (rand()%3)+1; // random box selected out of boxes 1, 2 and 3
switch(box)
{
case 1: // if box 1, first and second balls are gold
firstBallGold++; // increment first ball = gold count
secondBallGold++; // increment second ball = gold count
break;
case 2: // if box 2, first ball is gold in 50% of cases
ball = (rand()%2)+1; // random ball selected
if(ball == 1) // if random ball is gold
firstBallGold++; // increment first ball = gold count
break;
default: // box 3 selected, both balls are silver
// do nothing
break;
}
}
probability = (double)secondBallGold / (double)firstBallGold;
printf("\nTrials Run:\t%d", trials);
printf("\nProbability:\t%f", probability*100);
printf("\n\n");
return 0;
}
>>677865628
he had box 3, but only displays box 1 and 2... i don't get what exmaple of it is. it's stated in there.
>>677865628
The answer is 2/3.
If you had a brain, you could see that he only calculates the probability for the counts of the gold/gold/ and gold/silver boxes, not the silver/silver box.
>>677865628
obvious troll
>>677858867
>>677865181
are you guys fucking retarded,
no one is going to believe you because they don't understand code.
You might as well write it in Chinese.
>>677865628
I realised I fucked up 2 numbers in there but that made no difference, that was just a name thing. And about the non gold box, that's in there but makes absolutely no difference to the end product, that's the point, it goes through all 3 boxes but if it's the silver silver box, nothing happens.
>>677862300
This is honestly the best explanation. If a person can't get it after this, there's really nothing to be done except give up and except that there are people in the world who will never understand some things.
>>677865162
this is 4chan, we already had some dumbfuck doubting the wikipedia article after reading it...
>>677866063
>no one is going to believe you because they don't understand code.
It's not our fault they're retarded.
We demonstrated the correct answer using a computer simulation.
The answer is 2/3.
If they choose not to believe it, too bad for them.
Maybe they could become gamblers and lose all their money.
>>677865181
>>677865723
Here it is in Lua:
rounds = 100000
gold = 0
for i = 1, rounds do
if math.random(3)~=3 then
gold = gold +1
end
end
print("Chance for gold: " .. gold/rounds .. "%")
Literally the same shit in 10 lines:
https://repl.it/CCcI/2
>>677846669
PHD in advanced statistics here. The answer is simpler than presented. I'll green text it for u fags
>Originally, all three boxes were equally likely to be chosen.
>The chosen box cannot be box SS.
>So it must be box GG or GS.
>The two remaining possibilities are equally likely. >So the probability that the box is GG, and the other coin is also gold, is 1⁄2.
Sure is samefag in here.
>>677866491
that is too simplified
>>677865628
the irony of this post is that the Gender Studies people in the pic are the ones who would say the answer is 50%.
>In a survey of 53 Psychology freshmen taking an introductory probability course, 35 incorrectly responded 1⁄2; only 3 students correctly responded 2⁄3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
Answer = 2/3
>>677866706
literally the same shit though, same result
>>677866189
accept*.... fuck me...
>>677866603
>PHD in advanced statistics here.
>>677866788
console.log("66.6%") is the same result. Doesn't mean the logic is sound.
>>677865037
I appreciate your humor here.
>>677865086
not sure if you're trolling or retarded.
>>677866491
hold on, you're just randomly selecting from 3 numbers there, right?
What answer are you getting?
Looks like you'll get 0.3333..... from that, which is not the question being asked.
>>677866727
The wiki link has a different problem. It says "after taking a coin, *if* it happens to be a gold coin" and OP garuntees the first object taken out is gold.
>>677867051
it's okay, newfag, we have all been new at one time
just accept that you are the cancer that is killing my /b/
>>677866603
>>The two remaining possibilities are equally likely.
No they're not, retard.
You picked a gold ball as the first ball, which means you are twice as likely to have th eall gold box.
2/3
>PHD in advanced statistics here
Lying on the Internet. Absolutely Disgusting.
>>677867263
Marilyn Vos Savant and the Monty Hall problem.
>woman has legit highest IQ
>writes for parade magazine
>has people ask her questions
>someone asks about Monty Hall problem, should you switch
>she says 'yes you dumbfuck, you switch'
>all these people write in to tell her she's wrong
>basic 1st year stats student who knows bayes theorem knows shes right
the best example of actual feminism in the past 20 yrs.
>>677867263
>*if* it happens to be a gold coin"
What is the probability that the next coin is also gold?
is the same as asking
>The first coin drawn is gold,
What is the probability that the next coin is also gold?
Answer to both is 2/3.
>>677867553
Source?
i need some lulz before bed.
>>677867025
>>677867161
WRONG:
If you imagine it to be an array of 6 balls,
well, you will never pick the 2 last elements,
so an array of 4 balls:
|G||G||G||S|
You pick one at random that is gold,
so "math.random(3)".
So if you get 1 or 2, which are in the same box,
you'll get another gold ball,
however if you get the third ball,
the second ball in the box is silver.
So if "math.random(3) ~= 3 then",
(tilde means not in lua)
you have a success,
so 0.666
>>677867161
~= is the negation of equality
He's just seeing when random(3) != 3
>>677867553
i have read some of the letters she got, it's hilarious.
actual math professors and so many arrogant and ignorant fucks
>>677867335
>>677865628
while(peopleGetTrolled)
{
trollHard;
}
>>677867752
>>677867776
Yeah, makes sense.
My mistake was in my unfamiliarity with Lua.
>>677868690
as everyone is,
plus it's the only programming language that doesn't start at 0,
it really fucks with people
>>677848781
It's not abstract you fuckwit. That was literally process of elimination, list every possible way it could turn out.
>>677867607
The equation makes no distinction between the gold coins in the box that holds two gold coins.
The only essential info is:
1) Chosen box holds at least 1 gold object.
2) You remove a gold object
This removes the SS box. From there, the chosen box has one object remaining. Whether it's gold or not is 50%.
To believe it's 66% you'd need to include a factor that adds a distinction between the two gold objects in the GG box which the question itself does not.
>>677846669
The answer is 1/2 like you would expect. Bertrand's paradox revolves around the definition of random, and here the thing that's random is which box you choose. From there the logic that you know which box you haven't chosen and that means it's one or the other 50/50 is valid. It's an interesting thought experiment but probability applied to things that are going to happen not things which have already happened. It's hard to argue but I'm confident 2/3 is not the correct answer.
>>677867984
when i got this wrong after learning it and taught myself how to get it right it was a turning point for me to realize the nature of testing and empiricism.
ivy league professorship later, i realize that most professors only care about grant money and give 0 shits about actual science/math/anything else.
sad, honestly. but still, the best argument for feminism and patent idiotic pointless woman-hate.
>>677868227 (You)
Jesus Christ faggot, go back to le r.eddit.
>>677868227
>>677866491
there's a ~= comparator in Lua? wowww so useful
>>677867263
you're right it's a different quesiton
>>677846828
What the fuck is wrong with you? He was correct. If you pick a ball and it's gold, then you are either in the 2-gold situation, or the 1-g-1-s situation. The box has 2 choices, so the chance is 50%.
Are you an actual imbecile, with medical diagnosis of imbecility?
>>677868856
>The only essential info is:
>1) Chosen box holds at least 1 gold object.
>2) You remove a gold object
Correct.
>This removes the SS box.
Correct.
>From there, the chosen box has one object remaining.
Correct. However, only one box has been removed remember? Only 2 balls have been removed from the possibilty space. There are still 3 balls remaining, 2 gold and 1 silver.
>Whether (the remaining ball) is gold or not is 50%.
Incorrect!!
The fact you picked a gold as the first ball means you are TWICE as likely to have the all gold box.
Think of it like this.
There are 2 boxes.
1 box has 2 gold balls.
The other box has 99,999,999 silver balls and 1 gold ball.
You pick a box at random.
You draw a ball from the box at random.
The ball is gold.
Are you more likely to have the box with 2 gold balls, or the box with 1 gold ball and 99,999,999 silver balls?
Do you understand now?
The answer to OP is 2/3.
>>677868910
>when i got this wrong after learning it and taught myself how to get it right it was a turning point for me to realize the nature of testing and empiricism.
i think it's a great problem to teach people humility. i will use it on a friend who is in need of some tomorrow. man, i am already looking forward to that
>>677867752
oh I thought it was roughly equally for FP that's not as useful rip
>>677868907
>It's hard to argue but I'm confident 2/3 is not the correct answer.
2/3 is the correct answer as demonstrated by multiple anons using computer simulations and outlined in this article here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
2/3
>>677869584
You're making a distinction between the two gold objects that are in the same box when the question itself does not.
They are in the same box; which one of them you happen to take out is irrelevant. The question is asking the odds of the remaining object that has not yet been acted.
>>677868910
>but still, the best argument for feminism
How the fuck is it an argument for feminism?
Surely it's more of an argument for critical thinking, evidence, proofs and empiricism.
>>677868910
>when i got this wrong after learning it and taught myself how to get it right it was a turning point for me to realize the nature of testing and empiricism.
i think this problem is great for teaching people humility. i will use it on a friend tomorrow, really looking forward to that
⅔. the fact that gold was pulled eliminates the one with two silver balls. so it must be one of the other two. in those, there are four balls, three of which are gold. one gold is pulled out already, leaving three balls, two of them gold. so the chance is two out of three
>>677869475
>If you pick a ball and it's gold, then you are either in the 2-gold situation, or the 1-g-1-s situation. The box has 2 choices, so the chance is 50%.
If you buy a lottery ticket, you will either win or you won't win.
2 possibilities, therefore 50%
^THIS is how retarded you are.
Answer is 2/3.
>>677866603
>Originally, all three boxes were equally likely to be chosen.
That's where you're wrong.
>>677869809
hmm I think I see why actually. It's not because you have it equally likely, but because if you picked GS you've got a 50% chance to grab the silver coin first. So if you grabbed a gold coin you could be in either but chances are 2/3 times you grabbed the GG box since you drew one of 3 gold coins first. Took me a sec to wrap my head around.
>>677870583
Misread but still, you're wrong. You aren't equally likely to pick gold/gold as you are gold/silver. Gold/gold is more likely, because there are more gold balls in it....
>>677866603
if you had a phd in advanced statistics, you wouldn't say you have a phd in advanced statistics.
also, you wouldn't be wrong.
>>677870141
>You're making a distinction between the two gold objects that are in the same box
Yes. Yes, I am.
And I am making that distinction because THEY ARE 2 DISTINCT OBJECTS.
Holy fuck, anon.
The question fucking tells you there are 2 gold balls in 1 of the boxes.
How can you then assume that HEY, those two gold balls are actually 1 object.
Are you fucking retarded?
I mean, I don't want to be mean to you, but FUCK, anon.
I get that this one is 2/3. But Monty Hall fucks my brain. Someone explain simply?
>>677870441
that's an interesting argument but I don't think that's actually why. Might be mathematically sound but it's like a logical cheat because you have to know probability theory in order to use that argument.
>>677869475
this is so great, i think i could post this problem every single day for 10 years and we would still have posts like this
>>677870648
>if you picked GS you've got a 50% chance to grab the silver coin first. So if you grabbed a gold coin you could be in either but chances are 2/3 times you grabbed the GG box since you drew one of 3 gold coins first. Took me a sec to wrap my head around.
Yes.
Congratulations. You have attained enlightenment.
>>677871099
It used to be the internet hate machine for a reason,
shame tumblr took that throne
>>677870940
>that's an interesting argument but I don't think that's actually why. Might be mathematically sound but it's like a logical cheat because you have to know probability theory in order to use that argument.
>>677870900
I just got it, it's because chances are you picked GG because if you had picked GS you would have been just as likely to take the silver one out first. 2/3 times you pick out a gold first it's because you picked GG. Don't listen to these tards and their "there are 3 left duh" shit
>>677870447
I KNOW, I KNOW, I CHANGE MY FUCKING MIND, IT'S 2/3.
>>677871253
thank you. Now I'm trying to spread the knowledge but idk why if people would just read...
>>677871311
it's true. I have no idea why that works
>>677871343
>>677871350
>>677870900
Scale it up. Let's say there are a million doors. One car, the rest are goats. You pick a door and then Monty must select either the door with the car, or a goat door if you have already selected the car door. He asks if you want to switch. What do you do?
The odds that you picked the car door initially are one in a million. So obviously, switching is almost definitely going to get you the car.
>>677871530
so many faggots learning one today
>>677871350
Fuck you,
you're too fucking deep in to it now,
say it's 50/50 and eat shit you little bitch
It's 2/3.
Consider this: You have two boxes, one with 100 gold balls and one with 99 silver balls plus a gold ball. If you reach into one of the boxes and pull a gold ball, is it a 50% chance you picked the one with 99 silver balls?
>>677871656
woah ezpz
>>677871703
it's great, isn't it? teaching is almost as fun as learning
obviously trolling people who do not know the monty hall problem yet trumps both of these
>>677870896
Im not assuming that the two objects in the GG box are the same. I'm pointing out that the question makes no distinction between them.
The question begins only after you remove one gold object from the box. From there, the answer is 50% that the remaining object is also gold.
