The answer is you double your chance to win by switching.
Now argue because retarded
>>675993064
its 50/50, either you get the car or you dont
/thread
might aswell, no loss on my part.
>>675993163
But that's wrong you retard.
OP already told you the answer.
Switch=double chance
>>675993064
Ah, the old Monty Hall problem. OP is correct - very difficult to explain exactly why, though.
>>675993163
> /thread on your own post
> being wrong while doing it
Pay attention and maybe you'll learn
>>675993443
It's easy to explain, just hard for most to understand.
> explanation
You chose 1/3
2/3 chance you chose a goat
A goat is revealed
2/3 chance you now know where both goats are.
2/3 chance the only.door left is not a goat.
Monte paradox.. When you pick you have a 1/3 chance of getting the prize. When the host who knows where the prize is eliminates a door the odds only improve to 1/2 if you switch. The reason being he is opening a door tha he knows has no prize behind it. No matter what door you pick he will always be able to eliminate a door cause he knows the answer. So your odds were 1/3 when you picked and they will always be 1/3. If you switch you will be right 2/3 of the time. You should always switch
>>675994021
Was that supposed to be English?
When you chose the first door you had a 33% change to win, which you did. Having one of the wrong answers eliminated gives you the chance to increase you odds to 50% by switching.
>>675994185
You're right in concept, except if you switch you get 66% odds, not 50%
There can never be 50% from a choice of 3
>>675994021
I'm a mathematician and this is the worst explanation of why the chance is supposed to be 2/3 that I've ever read. I'm not even sure you actually understood why it's 2/3.
>>675994265
If you had a 33% chance to choose right, that means a 66% chance of being wrong.
66% chance the prize is behind a door you didn't choose.
One door you.didnt chose gets opened.
66% chance prize.is behind the only door left.
Was English, the problem was you're dumb.
But you can learn from this.
All isn't lost.
I'm doing Maths and Stats degree and I can confirm that it's a 66% chance and not a 50%
They actually tested this experimentally on mythbusters and it was 66% as well you can find the video on YouTube (can't be bothered posting link)
>>675993163
No it isn't you fucking nigger
There are 3 doors, there's 3% chance to win with any door
>>675994656
>They actually tested this experimentally on mythbusters and it was 66%
Lol, like why the fuck would you even need to fucking test this? There is no mystery here, you just need to understand the process by which one door gets eliminated and how that affects the outcome.
>>675994265
I fucked up sorry.. Its 1/3 to 2/3.. Not 1/2
>>675994601
Then you should pursue a new career path
That's a load of crap.
There are three different possible outcomes:
Goat Goat Car
Goat Car Goat
Car Goat Goat
Assuming you pick Door 1, then door 3 is revealed to be a goat, that eliminates one of the three possible outcomes, which leaves you with:
Car Goat Goat
Goat Car Goat
You still only have a 50% chance of winning.
Okay. Let's say there's a deck of 52 cards.
Now, you pick one. Try to get the ace of spades.
Got one? There's 51 left. Now I'm going to show you 50 cards that are not the ace of spades.
You can switch, or you can keep your card. Do you switch? According to some of you your odds are 50/50 since you either got the ace of spades or you didn't...
Same concept, smaller scale.
>>675995140
you should read this
>>675995151
>>675994851
Watch this thread go, and you'll understand why.
>>675995041
I know the chance is 66% and I know why.
I'm saying your explanation is garbage. Learn english.
>>675995151
Yes. It's still 50/50, because now you only have two cards.
>>675994925
So you insulted me, but then intended to agree with me.
> the brightest flame burns quickest
You've got a long life ahead of you
>>675995383
Your retarded.
:^)
>>675993064
Theoretically it makes sense, however practically it does not. My reasoning is that originally you're making a 1/3 choice, but then you're given the choice between your original 1/3 choice or a new 1/2 choice, which on paper the 1/2 choice makes more sense, but practically they're the same. So it does not matter which one you choose.
>>675995140
> 3 possible outcomes
Even though you have the option to switch?
Learn to math/count/read
Tl;dr (which I think you need)
You are an idiot
>>675995628
Except it does matter and has been proven to matter as well. 66% chance when switching and 33% chance with staying.
>>675995383
It's not at all 50/50.
There are two outcomes, but it's much more likely that you picked a card that wasn't the ace of spades.
You picked from 52 cards. Then, there were only two left.
Just about every single time the care you picked will not be the ace of spades. If you truly believe that your odds are 50/50, I'd love to gamble with you sometime.
I'll bet you 100 dollars and you bet 100 dollars since they are equal odds. If you pick the ace of spades from a deck of 52, i'll give you the money. If you pick any card other than that, you give me the money.
We'll keep playing for as long as you want.
>>675995548
>Your retarded
>smiley
Now I know you're trolling.
>>675995890
What was you're first clue
>>675995890
He wasn't exactly trying to hide it, kiddo.
>>675995789
Oh, you're right.
There are four possible outcomes, and by showing a goat, you eliminate two of them.
So you have a 2/4 chance.
>>675995628
Imagine there are 100 doors.
You pick a door and then the host opens 98 failed doors.
You now have to pick between the 1/100 chance that your door was always right, or the 99/100 chance that you picked wrong initially and now the host's door has the prize.
See how obvious it is that you should switch in this case?
It's the same with 3 doors except 1/3 & 2/3 instead of 1/100 & 99/100.
8/10 because you made me reply.
>>675995207
No, you're just an idiot.
> 66% chance the prize is a door.you didn't choose.
> open one of those doors
> 66% chance the prize is a door you didn't choose.
> only one door left you didn't choose.
> 66% chance on that one door.
>>675995836
I'm not going to gamble $100 on a coin flip. 50/50 are terrible odds.
>>675996315
2/10 for 'coin flip'
>>675995628
There cannot ever be 50/50 out of a choice of three.
It's not possible.
>>675996260
This is an explanation someone can understand who already knows the answer and has understood it himself.
It doesn't explain the principle well enough for people who don't know.
Hence a bad explanation.
>>675996246
Diz niqqa gets it.
This is clearly a case of Schrodinger's Goat.
>>675996183
No.
That's wrong.
There are three outcomes.
1- a goat
2- a goat
3- a car
What the fourth outcome from choosing between 3 doors?
>>675996543
It's the best way to explain it to someone that doesn't understand.
So what job do you have as a mathematician?
>>675994810
What about the rest 91%
>>675996770
There's actually 9 outcomes, strictly speaking (3 possible start states, 3 possible choices).
But it simplifies since it isn't a game of perfect information and you start in a hidden state.
>>675996246
>>675995827
It doesn't matter the contents of the door doesn't magically change based on it seeming to be a better chance, the choice is the same probability it doesn't matter which one you pick.
I understand what you're trying to say, I'm just saying it doesn't matter in the context of the three doors, an argument could be made for the 100 hundred door one but for the three doors the difference is trivial at best.
>>675997045
Finishing my master's next semester.
SWITCH BECAUSE YOU HAVE A 2/3 CHANCE OPPOSED TO A 1/3 CHANCE
>>675997064
3 possible start states
1 possible choice
That leads to 6 possible.outcomes, not 9
>>675997147
Right.
The contents don't change so the probability winning if you stick is <<Probability that you were right all along>>.
The probability of winning if you swap is <<1 - Probability that you were right all along>>.
Since there are three doors, this gives you 1/3 and 1 - 1/3 (2/3), so you should always switch.
>>675995836
kek
>>675997344
How the fuck did you get 6 out of 1 & 3, bro?
There is one possible choice out of three outcomes. Therefore it's 3 (start states) x 3.
>>675997147
All that matter is the probability of your FIRST choice.
you may not be able to understand that, but it's true regardless
>>675996510
That's what I just said.
>>675996510
But it is no longer a choice of 3 once goat one is shown. 3 is not part of the picture any more. only 2.
fuk u and yer bait
>>675993064
But, inshallah, you cannot fuck a car.
>>675997497
Are you legit retarded?
You can't switch to the door you've already chosen.
It's now fitty/fitty. What happened before matters not, because each event is discrete.
Stick. Or switch. Doesn't matter.
let me make this real fucking simple for you faggots.
imagine i'm some kind of wizard, and i present you with 100,000,000 doors. behind 99,999,999 of them is a steaming pile of shit, but one of them has the woman of your dreams and you get to plow her all day long.
you pick a door at random.
now, common sense would tell you that you probably picked the wrong door. in fact, for the sake of this example, i'm telling you that you did.
you get that? you PICKED THE WRONG FUCKING DOOR. you picked the wrong door.
so now I have 99,999,999, and only one has the woman of your dreams. and here's the thing--I know exactly which one she's in. because i'm a fucking wizard.
so what do i do? I don't open 99,999,998 doors at random, because then i'd probably reveal to you which one she's behind.
so i choose EXACTLY the wrong doors--i open every door EXCEPT the one that i KNOW she's behind. because i'm trying to meme you into making a retarded choice.
I am TRYING to deceive you, so I open all the wrong doors EXCEPT the right one, because I know which one it is.
and remember, you PICKED THE WRONG DOOR.
so now I ask you, do you want to switch?
and you say:
>no because now it's a 50-50 chance.
do y'all see how retarded you sound now?
>>675997714
"I choose not to switch"
What door did I just pick?
>>675997523
No, you literally said your given a choice between your original 1/3, or a new choice of 1/2.
Here's your post as pic related, because I'm not confident you would be able to click a post number if I linked it
>>675996246
No. Each case is discrete. Doesn't matter what initial odds were.
Old discrete math question:
Flip a coin 100 times. Odds of heads is 50%, or 50 heads.
99 times it was flipped and came up tails.
What are the odds it's going to come up heads this time?
50/50.
Why?
Because each flip is a DISCRETE EVENT, subject to its own odds.
Learn 2 math.
>>675997578
But you chose 1 door out of three...
How can there be a 50% chance of choosing correctly?
>>675997952
>100,000,000 doors
>Op says 3 doors
Can't you fucking read?
Completely different situations requiring completely different approaches.
>>675993163
it's a 50/50 chance to win the lottery
either you win or you don't
>>675998223
How is this discrete? The prize doesn't move bro.
You seem to be the one who needs to go back to probability 101...
>>675998128
It's almost like I said theoretical or something.
>>675998413
why does the amount of starting doors matter?
there's two doors now, so it's 50%.
isn't that the entire fucking logic you've been trying to prove this whole time?
jesus christ you're so retarded I can't believe you even remember to breath.
>>675998223
except that in the monty hall game it's a continuous evolving event. Not a discrete event. The contents of each door would have to be randomized after every change to the system for that to be true.
>>675997963
But the host can ONLY open a door that isn't the prize.
Only one door can be opened, so switching is one outcome, and not switching is the other outcome.
>>675993064
>ITT pseudo-intellectuals that think our current math system is relevant to the actual world and nature
TLDR;
If you open 2 doors your chances go up compared to opening one.
>>675998610
Except when you are correct and the host has two choices.
god, whenever I'm feeling down, monty hall threads always cheer me up. At least I'm not dumb like these cunts.
>>675993443
it's very easy to explain why. people are just very retarded and fail to get it.
best way to explain it : you pick a door, you have 1/3 to win the car.
the other 2 doors have 2/3 to win the car, combined. Despite having an empty door ( at least ) among them.
The fact that he opens it doesn'T mean shit, you already knew one was empty. The odds are still 2/3 for the 2 doors, and as you know one is empty, it's 2/3 for the other one.
Or the best way to prove it with another example : Let's assume there's a hundred door instead.
You pick one, said, door #34
I open them all beside door #27, they're all empty.
Do you keep or switch?
If they still believe keeping is as good as switching, just do the actual game a few times. Write a # on a paper, then do it. They'll figure it out fast enough, unless they're absolutely brain dead retarded and still argue that it doesn't count or some shit like retards do.
And if nothing works?
Just play the fucking game for money.
They won't get any smarter, but you'll get wealthier.
>>675998547
You did...
Followed by the words
"However practically it does not"
Do you see the problem there?
Your post is there for everyone to see...
You can't argue this.
>>675998413
I'm OP.
same rules apply.
Much stronger for a million door situation, but the concept is identical
>>675998812
>Except when you are correct and the host has two choices.
exactly. which occurs 33% of the time, not 50%.
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html try it yourself jackasses
>>675998223
But there's 3 coins, then one is taken away.
Not that that is relevant or makes sense to this thread, but it should at least point out why your basis is nonsense.
>>675998558
It matters because your starting geuss is different in each situation. You may not realise this but there's a big difference between 1/3 and 1/100,000,000.
So in the first situation he reveals only one door after you choose, in the second he reveals 99,999,998 after you choose.
So there's a 99,999,999/100,000,000 chance of you being wrong instead of a 2/3 chance.
They're not even close to being the same question, what matters is the chance of your first pick and the risk vs reward of changing = it doesn't matter in the first one while it does in the second.
>>675998542
this dumb nigga thinks the goats are moving he wont understand bro
>>675998812
No he doesn't.
He has one choice.
A GOAT
>>675999575
> it doesn't matter in the first one while it does in the second.
why? use some math to explain.
at the end of it you're choosing between two doors. that's a 50% chance, isn't it?
>>675999113
>says "I'm Op" on anonymous site
Shit he's got to be telling the truth.
>>675999737
Well, they are alive?
Maybe they walk about behind the scenes.
>>675999575
There is no risk versus reward. No matter the number, staying will always have the odds of 1/x and switching will always have the odds of (x-1)/x
Your odds are never better staying.
Its because you have a 2/3 chance of picking a goat in the beginning, so you want to switch because odds are you picked the wrong thing to start with.
>>675995383
lol no way you're this dense
>>675998825
I haven't made one in a while, been busy at work.
Always good entertainment making a monty hall thread.
Even better when USAsians are awake.
>>675996315
top lel
>>675994021
>2/3 chance you now know where both goats are.
lol nope.
1/2 chance you know know where both goats are. Door 3 is removed from consideration so there's either a goat behind Door 1 or Door 2.
Since there are only two possibilities, the odds are 1 in 2.
All else are trolls or idiots.
>>675998866
shit man, i keep seeing this thread and even learned that shit back in school, but never really understood it, but that example with the 100 doors finally made me get it
thanks m9
>>675997578
you don't re choose tho
>>675993064
it's actually closer to 70 percent better odds if you switch but this is correct.
>>675999847
You're wrong because you can't realise it's not a math problem it's a luck problem, in the first one the difference between the two chances are miniscule and therefore doesn't mean the slightly larger chance is automatically going to win while in the second one the difference between the chances is astronomical and therefore fucking matters.
>>675998477
>>675998477
made me lol irl first post got rekt
>>675999575
>it doesn't matter in the first
2/3 chance of being wrong doesnt matter?
toppest of keks
>>675998547
>>675998938
Rekt as fuck
>>676000694
>double your chance of winning from 1/3 to 2/3
>DOUBLE
>miniscule
>>675997147
the contents don't change but you have more information regarding the contents of the door.
>>676000795
>>676000694
Refer to this post you fucking retard and learn what the word practical fucking means.
>>676000694
>difference between the two chances are miniscule
look at this guy, doesnt even understand elementary statistics
>>675993064
Let's say you always choose door 1 first (because your initial choice is arbitrary, and the math works the same regardless of which door you choose first). Here are the possibilities:
>1 - goat
>2 - goat
>3 - car
>1 - goat
>2 - car
>3 - goat
>1 - car
>2 - goat
>3 - goat
1/3 of the time, you chose the car initially. The host then reveals either 2 or 3:
>1 - goat
>2 - goat - revealed
>3 - car
>1 - goat
>2 - car
>3 - goat - revealed
>1 - car
>2 - goat - revealed (at random)
>3 - goat
So, as you can see, in 2 out of 3 of the scenarios, you are better off switching from your initial choice.
>Stay with initial choice, 1/3 chance to win
>Change door choice, 2/3 chance to win
>Unless you want the goat... you sick Arab fuck
>>676001089
he could be welsh, they don't discriminate
>>676001089
This is correct
It's important to realize that using the switch method, all initial goat selections become car selections and vice versa. So if you have a 2/3 chance of selecting a goat, the switch ensures that your chances become 2/3 for the car.
I'm fucking done with this thread you're all so retarded and caught up in your math to realise in the real world with real problems math doesn't fucking matter. It's the same chance get over it.
>>675999847
> use some math
Your first choice is 1/100,000,000 of being a winner.
That means your first choice was 99,999,999/100,000,000 of being a loser.
That does not change no matter what happens after you choose.
>>>675993064
>you double your chance to win by switching
Incorrect: there is a NOT a 100% increase ("double your chance") since after initially chosing a door the chance of winning is 0.333...., while after Monty eliminates a door AND you decide to switch: you have chance of 0.5.
See, this increase in chance of winning is not "doubling your chance": its only half of that.
OP confirmed for being a dumbass.
>>676001406
See >>676001089
No math involved, if you approach the problem in a real-world sense, you get the same answer as you would through statistics.
>>675994810
I think you mean 33% breh
>>676001477
Nope the chance is 66%
>>675999895
But I am OP.
Don't really give a fuck if you believe it or not.
>>676001477
Incorrect. If you maintain your initial choice, you maintain a 1/3 chance of winning. If you change your choice, your chance increases to 2/3.
>1/3 * 2 = 2/3
Your chances are double. I could explain the math, like others have attempted to do in this thread, but >>676001089 has explained it in a way you can probably understand.
Monty Hall problem.
Switch doors, your chance is now 50/50 higher odds than when it was 33/66
So if you did this a hundred times each
The 50/50 would have higher win percentage than if you didn't switch and stayed with 33/66
>>675994392
bingo
It's 50/50.
You are all retarded.
>>676002254
>50/50
Choosing one of three initial choices can never result in a 50% chance.
>>676000443
Yes...
And since there's a 2/3 chance you chose a goat, and now you are shown a goat, theres a 2/3 chance you know where both goats are.
No door is removed, a door is opened, to show.you a goat.
Now you KNOW where.one goat is.
There's a 2/3 chance you chose a goat on your first choice.
That means there's a 2/3 chance you KNOW where both goats are.
>>676000653
No, it 66.666...%
There's no changing that because math/reality
>>675996246
I like this explanation. Thanks Anon.
>>676000694
I hope you're attempting to troll.
If so, you failed...
If you were being serious, An Hero now.
>>676002422
Let's do this step by step. Someone choose a door:
>1
>2
>3
>>676001874
>Thinks being Op means he's right
>>675994656
>66%
>implying that isn't basically 1/2
The trick is that the moderator can't open the door with the car behind.
>>676001477
And you ARE retarded.
See how capitals don't help.
You're stupidity conveyed more than those capitals ever could.
>>676003605
But I am right.
I just realized that this thread is litteraly evens versus odds.
>ITT two sets of thinkers
protip: odds win
people make the mistake of thinking that you pick the door after the goat has been revealed. you pick the door when there is a 66% chance of revealing a goat. one is then revealed leaving a car and a goat, the chances were that you originally chose a goat so you should switch to have a 66% of winning the car
>>675998547
Let's all laugh at this guy again
>>675999324
I played 3 times. Never switched and got the car every time.
>>675994392
>>675994647
>>675994656
>>675994851
>>675995207
>>675995827
>>675996260
>>676001868
>>676002254
>>676002872
>>676004665
Is this one of those 33 + 33 + 33 = 100 things?
>>676005157
>>>675999324
>I played 3 times. Never switched and got the car every time.
Show proof with timestamp
>>676004665
best explanation
Hot about this. There are three doors. One is clear and visibly has a goat behind it. There is one other goat and one car. What are your chances of picking the car? Math would say 1/3 because you could pick the clear door, but realistically they are 50/50... same as they are after the host opens the door so you can see the goat.
>>676004661
It's not even vs odd.
It's fact vs inability to understand
That's cool, it's a hard concept to grasp...
The problem comes when faced with confusion these people start calling others retarded even though they are wrong.
OP failed to deliver the whole problem, the showmaster is only allowed to open 2 or 3
>>676005436
Eat shit. I was surpirsed though to be honest.
>>675995140
>There are six different possible outcomes:
>Goat1 Goat2 Car
>Goat1 Car Goat2
>Car Goat1 Goat2
>Goat2 Goat1 Car
>Goat2 Car Goat1
>Car Goat2 Goat1
Ftfy
>>676005691
That makes a difference
>>676005757
You don't understand. It wasn't an insult. I'm mobile and genuinely want to see validity.
>>676005628
Except you don't have that knowledge to begin with, which matters in probability. Your initial choice has a 2/3 chance of being a goat. And when another goat is revealed after your initial choice, the remaining door has a 2/3 chance of being the winner.
.33 odd originally
.5 afterwards
.33x2 = .66
Your odds are not twice as good they were before they are 1.5x better
yall are all fucking retarded it 69percent chance fags
>>676006026
Everything is an insult here. I just played three more, kept my original door, and only lost once... so 5 of 6 times it paid to not change doors.
>>676005628
>How about this.
you have 2/3 chance of not picking the car. After the host reveals a goat you're STILL stuck with that 2/3 chance of not having the car.
>>676005689
There you go.
>>676006377
>Everything is an insult here.
True words /b/ro
Interesting...
But what does it mean? Is there a flaw? Or has something gone over looked?
>>675993064
Joke's on you - I want the goat.
>>676006377
Only another 100 times or so to reach the realm statistical significance
>>676005628
Except there's no clear door when you choose.
So it's 1/3
>>676005157
>implying 3 times is a reliable survey group
>being this retarded
kek
>>675993163
When you make your selection there's a 1/3 chance that it's in the door you picked, but a 2/3 chance it was in one of the two you didn't. When they remove the second door it puts that entire 2/3 chance in the one door that you didn't pick.
Every time I see this thread I can never tell who is trolling and who isnt.
So imma say it doesnt matter if you switch or not, it's now a 50/50 chance because door three is removed from the equation once you know the content.
>>675993064
When you chose first, it was 1/3 chance. So that door is 33% chance of winning. Then, if you reveal one door, the other one is 66% (because there are just two doors, and the first chosen it's 33%, so the other is 66%)
>>675993064
this is easier to understand if you make it larger.
imagine there are 1,000,000 doors. All goats except one - which has a car.
you pick any door at random - your odds of picking the car are 1 in 1,000,000
odds of picking the goat are 999,999 in 1,000,000
Next, the host opens 999,998 doors and reveals all goats. So you're left with 2 unopened doors.
Do you switch?
The answer is yes because the original selection you made was 1 in 1,000,000. Those odds don't change just because you learned additional information (opened doors). When you made the selection, it was 1 in 1,000,000.
Therefore, the odds that you didn't select the door with the car were 999,999 in 1,000,000.
>>676005691
What???
The host is only allowed to open goat.
No matter what you choose, theres always a goat left for him to open.
What you're trying to think is the host always open 1/3.
That's what shifts the odds in your favor.
>>676006310
How did you.come up with 50%, (or .5 as you put it), from a choice of 3?
You.chose ONE out of THREE.
there cannot be 50%
>>676007276
To paraphrase it:
The host opens the rightmost goat-door.
Without that the provided solution is wrong.
>>676007058
Removing the door AFTER you make your selection doesn't alter the odds of your original choice.
When you make any odds based choice, you have odds that you're right and odds that you're wrong.
In this case, you have a 33.3% chance that you're right and a 66.6% chance that you're wrong.
Once you see one of the doors open and revel a goat, you have additional information, but your original odds do not change. You still have a 33.3% chance that your original pick was right, and a 66.6% chance that you were wrong.
Thus by switching, you improve your odds because you make another choice after learning additional information.
Its fucking simple math. So 3 doors, 2 doors have a goat, and one a car. That means 2/3 of the time you will choose goat and 1/3 of the time its car. So you choose a door, and the guy shows a goat behind a different door. The reason you should switch is since 2/3 of the time you choose goat, then most likely your first door which you chose was a goat. So the best choice in terms of math is to chose the other door which you previously didnt choose.
>>675993064
it artificially ""doubles"" your chances by giving you the second pick after the goat reveal.
the math will support this, however, changing to door two does not mean the car is not behind door one.
still a gamble regardless of what your dipshit statistics prof. says.
>>676007767
No.
66% chance a door you didn't pick has the prize.
One door you.didnt pick is revealed.
Still 66% chance you don't have the prize.
That means 66% another door has the prize.
Only one other door left.
66% chance that door has the prize.
>>675993064
after first pick you have a 1/3 verse 2/3 chance of having the door w/ the car, then after revealing one of the goats, you now have 1/2 (to stay) verse 2/3 (to switch). so switch.
>>676007790
But if you choose the middle door first you have the 1/3 there and then get the 2/3 on the first door. Magic?
The explanation isn't that simple.
>>675998223
Independence you faggot, not "discrete"
>>676006823
Goats are useful and the meat is great.
>>676008139
1/2+2/3=1?
You understand the concept, but your numbers are wrong.
All possibilities have to add up to 100%
50%+66% does not equal 100%
There cannot ever be a 50% based on a choice between 3
>>675994647
no, you've eliminated one of the doors, it doesn't change the number of cars behind the doors, it doesn't effect what is behind the door at all
therefore you now have a 1/10 chance of winning the goat
>>676008086
That's right, but ONLY because the host knows which door the donkey or whatever is behind.
It's easier to think of if it if you have 99 doors, and you choose one, then the host (who knows which one has the donkey) opens up 97 other doors without donkeys, so now there's just he one you chose and the one the host left closed. Do you switch? Obviously.
>host opens goat door
>switch doors
>get a goat
>shit
>>676008086
The whole thing only works because you ALWAYS get the 1nd door and the showmaster ALWAYS opens 2 or 3 (he can't open your door no matter if goat or not).
If you don't believe me you can read the same on wikipedia.
ALRIGHT YOU TROLLING RETARDS. This is so simple. Here are your choices:
G. C. G.
C. G. G.
G. G. C.
You choose door 1. The host reveals a goat in door 3. Your options are now this:
C. G. G.
G. C. G.
IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER IF YOU SWITCH YOU AUTISTIC FUCKS. Same chance to get goat if you switch as it is if you stay.
>>676008596
1/10?
Retarded troll, or legit retarded.
Where did you get 1/10 from?
You have 1/3 chance of picking car, when host reveals got you now have have 1/2 chance of picking car so it doesnt matter if you stay or change.
I understand the theory, but would it make a difference in real life?
There is no reason why the door you picked the first time isnt the right door.
I just spent 15 minute trying this shit with a ball and my GF (ib4 all that shit), and we ended up something like 24 right without switching vs 28 right when switching. Tried 50 times doing each thing.
Its just fucking numbers.
>>676008622
I'm confused...
You seem to be arguing against me, while agreeing with what I've said.
Did you reply to the wrong post?
>>676007214
lol gr8 b8
>>676009061
This is correct.
>>676009205
see
>>676007926
>>676009061
The theory is that when you pick the first door (a,b,c) there is 66% chance that the car is in one of the other 2 doors. SO when one of those are removed there is somehow a 66% chance that the winning door is the one you DIDNT choose.
Autism is hard. Not sure if im the autist or the question is.....
>>676008756
> 1nd
That's retarded to begin with.
Did you read the post you're. Replying to, because you're actually agreeing with it.
>>675993064
My dick is somewhat average.
>>676007214
yeah, but if the odds changes before you make the switch, you can "choose" to remain at the first door at 50% chance.
If not, plz explain. Cause in theory I could pick door nr 100, and then 101 is the only door not opened. but I could just as easily picked that first, and be left with 100 as the one not opened. Wizards afoot?
Well because I saw the movie 21 I am staying.
there is a 1/3 chance your door has a car behind it. You picked randomly out of 3. When one of the other doors is opened to reveal a goat the remaining door has a 1/2 chance of being a car. 1/3 vs 1/2.
>>676009583
People do not take into account that once one door is revealed, you are left with only 2 options now, not 3 like before.
G. C. G. OR C. G. G
We now know the 3rd door is a goat, therefore your 33% chance now becomes 50/50 because the thord door is no longer in the equation.
>>676009850
No, your remaining door now has a 2/3 chance to have the car behind it
>>676009061
You gave 3 options.
Pick door.one in which?
Add choosing door 1 in all 3 options you put forward, and record switching possibilities and you'll get the right answer.
I doubt you can though, since.you posted three possibilities, and said choose.number 1 and BAM, even though there were three.
>>676009205
It's not theory, it's fact.
>>676002019
You are a complete retard.
Or just too lazy to read a single word
HERE IS THE NEXT TROLL QUESTION!
GO! GO! GO!
>>676010188
The original door choice doesn't matter, you faggot. It is all 1/3.
After one of them is revealed, you are left with EXACTLY these two choices:
A car behind your door and a goat behind the other
OR
A goat behind your door and a car behind the other.
Autistic fucks don't understand that the 1/3 choice is no longer in play.
>>676009061
I agree with you 100% that it's 50/50, but there are other options since the goats are different.
1: G1, C, G2
2: G2, C, G1
3: C, G1, G2
4: C, G2, G1
5: G1, G2, C
6: G2, G1, C
We don't know if it's goat 1 or goat 2 behind door 3, so that leave 4 possible outcomes (1, 2, 3 or 4) and either way there are 2 doors to pick from so it's 50/50.
I don't see any way that choosing between the 2 remaining doors could possibly be anything other than 50/50.
>>676009583
It's you.
Don't feel bad, it's a hard concept to grasp.
When you get it, it makes perfect sense and you feel dumb for ever not understanding it.
>>676005194
it's one of those "33% is easier to type than 33.333333333% and people know others mean 1/3" things
>>675994185
Has anyone actually tried doing the experiment? Because if you did, you would see that switching does not change the odds from 50%
>>676010465
It's already been explained why you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch, you ignorant faggot
>>676010781
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAljAvR3L4s
>>676007051
The odds dont dmjust move over to the otger door, they change completely. There was only a 67% chance because 3 doors were unopened. After the first is opened, the choices are now 50/50
>>676010449
X = -3
>>676011028
You fucking idiot.
People like you have no concept of how math works.
Your original choice was 1/3. One is revealed and you are now asked to pick another. YOU ARE NOW CHOOSING BETWEEN 2 DOORS. your new choice is a 1/2 because the revealed door is out of play. Why is this so hard to grasp? Are you trolling this hard?
>>676009806
You choose 1/100
1/100 chance you.chosr correct
99/10000 you chose wrong.
This does not change no matter what happens.
If there's only a 1/100 chance your choice is the winner, that means there's a 99/100 chance that the winner is a door you.didnt choose.
If I open 98 of the 99/100 door you didn't choose, now there's only ONE door left.you didn't choose.
There is still a 99/100 chance the winner is a door you DIDNT choose.
Now there's only one door left that you didn't choose.
99/100 that door has the prize.
>>675996246
This. This is good.
>>676011539
Yeah, you don't get it, you ignorant faggot. It's been demonstrated and explained more than once right in this very thread, but your tiny fucking brain just can't grasp it
>>676009921
WRONG
>>676011184
That video explained it horribly, but I guess I figured it out anyways
>>676011893
FUCK THIS. I'm out. You ignoramuses have no idea how statistics work.
YES it makes sense to switch if there are 100 doors.
NO it doesnt make sense to switch if there are 3 doors.
Fuck every last one of you who thinks you have better odds by switching in this equation.
>>676012289
>FUCK THIS. I'm out.
Smartest thing you've said so far
>>675993064
bruh how tf does this even make sense? because you knew what one of the choices out of 3 is it makes it double? 1/3+1/3 is not double of 1/2
the decision to change your answer has no effect on the outcome if there is nothing different about the two remaining doors. its still complete guesswork fucktard
>>676001446
I know, that's why I fucking posted the example. Dumbfuck.
>>676012367
Fuck you, most of all. I hate you the most.
>>676012536
Good. I can handle your hate. I can't handle your blatant ignorance.
>>676009322
Nah, I'm just agreeing with you.
>>676009322
>>676012785
Also nice dubs anon
Lets say the contestant knew the host would reveal the goat. Does that change this reasoning . Is this whole "switch is better" conditional on the contestant not knowing the hosts move?
>>676012920
>Does that change this reasoning
No
>>676010465
I put you in a room with 100 women.
You act like an awkward faggot, but you have to remember one you want.
You leave the room, and tell me which woman you want.
I split the women into 2 groups.
One group of 99.women, and the other woman is on her own.
If you can choose the group with the woman you ocker, you get to keep her.
Obviously you're going to pick the group with 99 of them.
I'm certain you still won't understand this.
I learned this when i was 11 on school but forgot the explanation
>>676012289
Do yourself a favor and call up a math professor. Most universities post their office numbers online.
And then waste your time trying to convince him he's wrong.
>>676013107
You should try reading the thread because the answer has been given multiple times.
>>676010781
So you haven't tried it then?
Dumb faggot.
Bathe in your embarrassment
>>676012289
Does it make sense to switch if there are four doors?
>>676012289
nigga you dumb. read a book.
>>676013066
Dipshit, keep in mind that OP's question only contains 3 doors. If it were 4 or more, that's a different story.
Yes, if you had 4 or more doors, switching would statisticaly be the right thing to do. However, when you only have 3 doors, your odds will always be 1/3 and 1/2 once an incorrect door is removed.
This is the main reason everyone here has problems. With 3 doors, in the real world, IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER IF YOU SWITCH.
>>676013562
1/3 + 1/2 =/= 1
Go back to 2nd grade and learn how fractions work you ignorant faggot
>>675993064
This problem is about logic, not math.
When one of the unwanted outcomes is revealed, the previous scenario becomes irrelevant.
The only choice is a about 2 doors one of which is desired and one is not.
>>676012415
No, you posted pic related, and said
why? use some math to explain.
at the end of it you're choosing between two doors. that's a 50% chance, isn't it?
But you're not retarded right?
Perhaps you were just pretending.
>>676013718
>1/3 + 1/2 =/= 1
Baitfag, it's 1/3 choice THEN 1/2 choice. Your previous choice did not matter once a door is revealed. It is done.
>>675998477
in the lottery there isn't 3 numbers that will win is there? There is 2 options therefore it is 50% chance. 50 is half of 100. 1 is half of 2.
>>676014050
You should have given up while you were still behind
>>676014023
I'm the one who posted the wizard example.
I was mocking him when I said:
>that's a 50% chance, isn't it?
As in, I was paraphrasing him in a condescending way. Some would refer to this as "sarcasm."
Context held the answer to this question of yours, but instead you chose to be retarded.
>>676012838
I think your autism is cancerous.
You wouldn't know, but the last 2 numbers of posts on here were X's for a while just to prevent get fags like you from posting autism
>>676013562
Revealing a goat changes nothing.
You already knew there was a goat, didn't you? So why would the odds change?
Instead, you're only learning WHICH of those two doors has the goat, since the car will never be revealed.
So now that you know WHICH of the two has the goat, the odds that the remaining one has the car is 2/3.
When you switch, you aren't picking one door. You're picking BOTH doors, with the added advantage of knowing WHICH of those two doors has the goat.
That is why your odds are 2/3
>>676014352
Maybe contagious but not cancerous you colossal faggot
>>675993163
Like meeting a dinasour when going out for a walk in New York. 50/50 you either meet one or you don't
What if I want the goat ? Can I switch to the open door ?
>>676014598
Unoriginal comment is unoriginal
>>675997050
The other 91% is the chance that whoever posted 3% is fucking retarded
>>676013562
Post simplified version for retards making 1 group of 99 women 1 group of 1 woman.
Faggot doesn't answer question, just gets angry and starts typing in CAPS
In the problem, there are three doors. A car (prize of high value) is behind one door and goats (booby prizes of low value) behind the other two doors. First, the player chooses a door but does not open it. Then the host, who has knowledge of what is behind every door, opens a different door which they are certain has a goat behind it (opening either door with equal chances if the car is behind the player's door). Last, the host lets the player choose whether to keep what is behind the first door or to change choices to the third door (the one the host did not open). The rules of the problem are that the host has to open a door with a goat behind and has to let the player switch. The question is whether changing choices increases the chances of getting the car.
The chances of the car being behind the two doors that are still closed seem equal, so most people say changing choices does not increase the chances of getting the car. The true answer is that changing choices increases the chances of getting the car from 1/3 (one out of three) to 2/3 (two out of three).
That comes from the fact that the player, by choosing one door out of three, has a one chance in three of selecting the door with the car. The chance of the car being somewhere behind the other two doors is two out of three. So to improve their chance of winning a car, the player if given the choice, should swap their one door for the other two doors right away. But wait! The host then tries to confuse the player by opening one of their own goat doors. That changes nothing, remember that the player is still swapping their one door for the other two doors (even though one of them has been opened).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggDQXlinbME
>>676014050
You choose 1 door out of 100. You have a 1/100 chance of having the car. The rest of the doors combined have a 99/100 chance of having the car.
The host opens 98 doors, so there are now 2 closed doors... the one you chose initially, and the one left after he opened the 98 doors. THAT DOESN'T MEAN YOU NOW HAVE A 50% CHANCE THAT YOUR INITIAL DOOR IS THE CORRECT ONE. It's still 1/100, regardless of what info you've gained by the host opening doors.
It doesn't matter if you start with 100 doors or 3... it's always better to switch
no one is actually dumb enough to not switch. you're all arguing with b8
>>675993064
You pick a door. 33% chance you're right.
>what if i told you there's a goat behind one of the doors
That doesn't change anything. I already knew there was a goat. It's still 33%
>are you sure? one of the doors has a goat
I already knew that. It's still 33%
>what if i showed you which one has the goat
why would that matter? it's either on the right or the left. the distinction doesn't matter to me. it's still 33%
>ta-da! it's on the left
Why do I care? It's still 33% that I'm correct.
>no now it's 50%
What? that makes no sense. I knew there was at least one goat. Why do i care if he's on the right or the left?
>now there's two doors so it's 50%
literally all you did was tell me which side the goat was on. this changes nothing. i already knew there was a goat. it's still 33%
>you are all retarded
The problem with this is a very simple one, actually. When we are faced with only three doors to choose from in this specific scenario, our logic tells us to switch. In mathmatical terms, however, after one of the doors are revealed, you effectively now have a 50% chance whether you stay with your first choice, or switch.
That being said, if we introduce additional doors into the same scenario, if the host removes multiple doors at a time, it becomes not only logical, but mathmatically correct, to switch doors. This is because we assume that the host knows that the door that contains the car is still in play.
If only one door at a time is removed, and you are continuously offered opportunities to switch, sooner or later, your choice will come down to a 50% chance. That is assuming that the host only removes doors that contain goats.
This question is bait. With only 3 doors, and 1 removed after your initial choice, it does not matter if you switch or not.
Caterpillars are green. Leaves are green. Therefore, caterpillars are leaves.
>>676014275
This dribble might very made sense, if you replied to whoever you're talking about.
You replied to me, and made yourself look retarded by doing so.
>>676015400
Wrong
>>675993064
Fuckign faggots look up monty hall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0
>>676015191
Retard. Is the host removing 98 doors at once, or removing one at a time and allowing you to switch your choice each time? You are stuck on the wrong idea.
>>676015603
Prove it, please.
>>676015400
>If only one door at a time is removed, and you are continuously offered opportunities to switch, sooner or later, your choice will come down to a 50% chance. That is assuming that the host only removes doors that contain goats.
OK, assume this is true.
Now make it 100000 doors. He opens the doors one at a time, asking if you want to switch each time.
And you keep saying no, no, no.
So now when it's down to two doors, your chance is 50%?
Is this what you are saying?
Listen to Kevin Spacey you rtards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr_xWfThjJ0
Fuck you, with this bait shit
>>676015739
You're right... you always have a 50% chance of winning the car. Just like you always have a 50% chance of winning the lottery.
Your logic is embarassing
>>676015808
Has already been shown multiple times in this thread why your logic is incorrect.
The goat is in between the doors. 1 is guaranteed car. Me am smart.
If anyone is still confused watch this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_djTy3G0pg
and if you don't get it after this, well. There is no hope for you to ever understand it.
>>675996702
underrated post
>>676015842
If the host did not remove the door that contains the car, and you stayed with the same door all along and now have 2 choices remaining, then there is a 100% chance that you win if you switch.
This is off topic.
>>676014517
Cancer isn't contagious you faggot.
Have you noticed in most threads nobody gives a shit, then one idiot will reply to every post in the thread that has dubs?
That's cancerous, and not contagious, otherwise it wouldn't be just one or two morons doing it.
The fact that post numbers had their ends cut off to prevent faggotry like yours is proof enough that it's fucking cancer.
>>676014754
Sorry anon.
Usually I inb4 wanting the goat, and I am Muslim, but I haven't made thus thread in a while so I forgot.
It's really not hard to comprehend.
Assume the host always eliminates one, assume you always switch.
Door 1 is correct, you choose it. You switch. 1/3 you lose.
You choose door 2, he eliminates door 3, you choose 1. 1/3 you win.
You choose door 3, he eliminates door 2, you choose 1. 1/3 you win.
1/3+1/3 > 1/3
>>676016283
>If the host did not remove the door that contains the car
>If the host did not remove the door that contains the car
What? this is literally always true. he is incapable of picking the door with the car. that is exactly what gives you the advantage when you switch.
>>676013562
4 doors?
You're just making shit up now you fucking moron.
Think of it this way.
If you chose an incorrect door to begin with, and then he opens one of the incorrect doors, the only door remaining is the correct door.
So, if you switch, you win if you chose an incorrect door to begin with and lose if you chose the correct door to begin with, and vice versa if you keep your original choice.
>>675993064
Correct, but only and if only the host knows the answer. Otherwise irrelevant
>>676015739
Dumb cunt
>>676017042
Not necessarily. If he reveals the car outright then you obviously lose; you were never given the chance to switch.
But if he reveals a goat then you still switch. He's given you useful information even if unintentionally.
1/3 chance u got it right 1st shot
Then, 1 door is removed
Now instead of 3 choices you have 2
1/2 chance ur right
Would you stick with the door you had a 33% chance or change to the door with 50% chance?
Correct answer is change. Thank you for reading. :)
>>676017464
33% + 50% =/= 100%
>>676017607
First time is 33 33 33.
3 door.
Second time 1 door is eliminated. 2 door.
50 50
Now which is bigger, my African friend, 33 or 50? Thank you :)
>>676017042
Reread the OP post.
The conditions are clear
seriously question, does anyone want to play for money?
you aren't allowed to switch. but if you win, you win $100. if i win, you only have to give me $75.
with 50-50 odds you'll be a rich man in no time!
>>676017865
So if your initial choice has a 33% chance of being correct, and the remaining door has a 50% chance of being correct, you are literally saying that the door that the host opened still has a 17% chance of being to correct door.
While you are correct that it's better to switch, your maths are incorrect.
>>676017349
The host knows were the car is, and the rules state that he will not reveal until last moment.
This is the fact that increases the accumulated probability of winning
If the host knows nothing, he could fuck up the show, and 1/n probability for each door would be kept
>>676014126
No, when you select the first door, it has a 1 in 3 chance of being the right door. Opening any of the other doors do not change that. Therefore the on remaining door must be 2/3 chance.
I can prove it's true, create a simulation in java or some shit, and it will come out 33% chance for the original door, and 67% chance the the switch.
I've tried it, and it's true.
You.
Are.
Wrong.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
inb4 ">lawl, using wikipedia as a source."
>>676017865
You are dumber than a nigger.
All possibilities combined must equal 100%
You couldn't even understand what this anon >>676017607
Was saying.
Go munch your stolen chicken and watermelon
I've made a test for this problem and the result for 10 000 000 cycles is:
First pick was right 3331321 times
Repick was right 6668679 times
So OP is legit
>>676018130
Are you Mormon?
Because your post is very dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb
>>676018207
So... my post, but re-worded to be your words.
You didn't contradict anything I said you dumb Jew.
>>676018470
Damn straight I am.
I'm always legit.
Except on occasion when I stir up USAsians.
They get riled.up so easily
>>676018130
Oh, you are correct African friend. Appologies. Thank you.
>>676018826
No, you mentioned the host revealing the car outright, which means you're a Morin that either didn't read or understand the thread.
Fuck you smelly desert wandering jew faggot.
>>676018578
God damn, son. I was giving you the benefit of a doubt, but you've just gone and revealed what a fucking moron you actually are.
If you have 3 doors and the host eliminates one of the doors, that means that the remaining 2 doors HAVE TO HAVE A 100% CHANCE OF BEING THE CORRECT DOOR.
You can't say that your initial choice has a 33% chance and that the remaining door has a 50% chance of being correct because that means that the door that the host has already shown to be wrong has a 17% chance of being correct.
Give it up before you embarrass yourself further, idiot
>>675993064
you're ignoring the fact that i'm wearing legendary underwear with +3 Luck, so I'm more likely to pick the right door from the start, so switching is just stupid
>>676018826
That was never my intention, sorry
I just wanted to emphasize that this is a cumulated probability problem, and that the host must know. As the text says "He will open the door to reveal a goat"
>>676018897
Protip: the people that will INSIST it's 50/50 are the same people that will INSIST god is real.
Some people have a strong urge to accept intuitively appealing "mental shortcut" answers.
What are the odds of the switch on the Monty Haul problem? There's two answers that people reach, the "no thought" 50/50 answer, and the correct answer, which requires thought.
What is the explanation for the existence of the universe? There are two answers here, as well. The first is the "no-thought," "God did it!."
The other literally requires so much thought, it took mankind 100,000 years to figure out even the basics.
The same people willing to accept "no-thought" answers for one problem are willing to accept them for everything else.
>>676019215
I never said nor suggested anything remotely close to what you're shouting.
Just give it up faggot.
As I've already said, you're either a shit troll, or a legit retard.
Either way you should stop posting.
>>676019312
Fuck you Mormon piece of shit.
Your magic underwear isn't a secret anymore
>>676019328
It's not cumulative at all, it's directly linear.
66% chance you were wrong, 66% being right by switching.
Stop using words you don't understand.
You think it makes you seem smart, but it actually make you sound stupid.
>>676019199
you are so fucking retarded. I am aware that the host can't pick the car. I was outlining WHY that is. context is key, faggot.
>>676019742
I do not care about this.
If there were no dummies, there would be no point in me making this thread.
The retards are what makes it entertaining.
I think what most people have a hard time grasping with this is:
>they won't pick the door you chose to reveal a goat
As they're not opening any random door(like possibly the one you had picked) you're chances won't be a constant 1/3 and increase substantially if you switch.
>>676020026
That's exactly what you said, faggot. You said your initial door has a 33% chance of being correct, and the remaining door has a 50% chance of being correct.
2 of 3 doors are goats.
Player most likely choses door with a goat.
Host shows player the door with goat.
Player must assume he chose door with goat, and now host reveals other goat, so the third door is car - assuming player chose door with goat as he should assume since he had 66% chance to do so at the start.