What happens when all the classic hard labour jobs become automated?
It's begun with small things like automated checkouts reducing the number of staff supermarkets employ. What happens when we have automated farming & industry, shopping turns into 99% click and collect so there barely even are shops anymore and the ones open have the bare minimum of staff.
There will still be doctors and bankers and lawyers and all the high paid professions, but what about your average joe that was happy with a coffee shop and suddenly the place he wanted to work has all automated checkouts and maybe 3 staff.
This is the problem I have with standard capitalism, I'm not a marxist but I do believe there should be a fundamental income level that everyone's entitled too because eventually there aren't going to be anywhere near enough jobs to go around.
They're already building the necessary prisons, don't worry. Study criminal justice, or deal drugs. You'll be fine.
what will happen? what's already happening. middle class vanishes, lower class is reduced to below-subsistence-level unemployment (i've been doing that for the past six years, having been automated out of three different jobs already).
the one percenters are hoping for an H1N1-style megaplague that will kill anyone who can't afford god-tier medical care. the lower class isn't needed any more, and they won't just go away.
Yeah today's capitalism won't fly in the next couple hundred years, we'll experience a major societal upheaval.
Assuming there aren't too many international tensions that boil into large scale war and/or we can actually keep our CO2 emissions in check and not start a catastrophic positive feedback loop by 2100. We're right on track for the latter, if we don't get off the following generations are gonna get ass fucked. Unfortunately, sea-level rise and larger scale desertification are going to cause mass migrations which will only feed into the problem of international tensions.
>There will still be doctors and bankers and lawyers and all the high paid professions
nnnnnno there won't be.
It starts with simple labor, but then "professionals" get replaced. As automation becomes more capable and sophisticated not only can robotics suddenly do the physical labor of modern medicine better than people can, they can examine and diagnose better too. There is no safe career path extended over time.
Make computers so good they can think about and solve these problems without humans having to think about them. Worst case scenario: the computers fuck up and perpetuate the human race through lore and merriment.
>Yeah today's capitalism won't fly in the next couple hundred years, we'll experience a major societal upheaval.
i have been looking for an alternative to capitalism while i wholeheartedly support it. yeah, i don't have any loyalty at all. but what alternatives are there? communism doesn't work, because "People want to own stuff." (cf Frank Zappa). socialism won't work because nobody can agree on what True Socialism is. same thing with Anarchism.
the closest thing i've seen to an alternative working system is the reputation economies of the Regulators as described in Bruce Sterling's SF novel "Distraction", and the neural oversight experiments described in the first chapter of his novel "The Caryatids", where everyone can see what the others in the tribe are feeling, but not actually thinking.
Sex is all in our heads. Machines will never be able to keep up.
>There is no safe career path extended over time.
this. i've had four different careers so far, and have been designed and automated out of each one.
i'm thinking about becoming either a politician or a policeman next, to see if those jobs will disappear too.
nice idea, but what we see actually happening is, the cost of production drops, but the price of the goods doesn't drop as much. the owners of the factories keep the profits, which is how they become even richer.
i still don't understand that. if you were worth fifty million dollars, why would you fuck over all of your customers so you could be worth fifty-one million? after some point it must become some kind of game.
guess what? you're a brain in a jar.
>tfw not a single cuckservative has any answer to this simple question
What will actually happen is the producers/top 1% will simply stop making products. They will control all means of production. Money will become worthless because they don't have to sell things if they already can make everything they'll ever need. It'll be a life of indulgence for them and they'll just send nukes to take out all the filthy peasants. Not even the 2nd amendment will save us now.
computer operator, journalist, IT support, injection molding operator.
maybe i should become a priest. it's hard to see how automation will kill that. problem is, i'm not attracted to eight-year-old boys.
Eventually the poor will get recycled into food at a certain age. Living off algae and scraps whilst we toast to the good life.. soilent green mm
>they'll just send nukes to take out all the filthy peasants.
they won't have to. we'll either starve, or freeze, or die of the 'flu.
>maybe i should become a priest. it's hard to see how automation will kill that.
You just confessed something on the internet.
>tfw the only logical outcome of a cuckservative worldview is one of the apocalypse scenarios suggested in this thread
Capitalism being phased out over time is just logical. It only worked when there's a smaller upper class that can utilize the lower classes labor to push innovation. As the entire world industrializes more rapidly, more people are leading a 1st world lifestlye, and it's quite clearly un-sustainable.
Part of the issue is we're so used to certain "regular life" routine that we don't even consider how stupid some of it is. Mowing the lawn is a benign, but good example. We take a plant that grows very quickly, displace it from it's natural habitat and put it on our lawn regardless of our environment, and then use water to grow it, then use a finite fossil fuel source to cut it down to our preferred size on a regular basis. Despite being a "standard" of 1st world living, no one seems to consider even for a moment what a colossal fucking waste of time, energy and resources that goes into maintaining one's lawn.
50 years ago, a small portion of the world's population was doing it, so no one thought twice. Not the case anymore, but we're thinking about what we could change, or about certain behaviors/perceptions that are unhealthy or un-sustainable. We just do it because "everyone else is," or "that's what we've always done."
The mass-dumping into the Ganges River in India is another good example of a mindless "it's always been that way" mindset. For hundreds of generations Indians have been dumping trash, personal waste and dead bodies into their holy river. A couple thousand years ago when the population of India was a fraction of today's, the river probably was big enough where no one felt any consequence of this behavior. Now, that's clearly not the case, but the behavior continues to this day. Only now that the river is an absolute abomination are some starting to realize that change is needed.
These kinds changes need to happen before it gets this bad, not after.
you realize at one point everything was hand made, farmers had to plow fields with animals and clothing was hand stiched. the industrial revolution came and made those cottage industry's obsolete, society will adjust like it always has.
>we toast to the good life.. soilent green mm
if you're on /b/, then you're one of us. the Precariate. you're goin' to hell with the rest of us, bitch.
meet your new masters.
Technical jobs will replace the hard labor jobs. Although, there are many basic trades that are still difficult to automatize (despite what your company might like telling you, companies thrive on people thinking they're extremely disposable, it keeps wages low).
Not to mention on most customer service jobs, people prefer to interact with people rather than a machine. For example, fast food may be easy to automate but I fucking promise you this, every person over 50 WILL NOT buy food at a fucking machine or that is manufactured entirely by machines. Shit, most people who've worked for low wages will not give their money to a company that will prefer to automate over paying a fair wage.
Most basic trades, carpentry, butchering, welding; are still cheaper done by men and really a lot of things require a person's judgment to troubleshoot. Not to mention, all machines require upkeep so that's a hidden cost. A machine plus the technicians to keep it working properly will often still be less cost effective than to simply pay a man to tend to it.
>Mowing the lawn is a benign, but good example. We take a plant that grows very quickly, displace it from it's natural habitat and put it on our lawn regardless of our environment, and then use water to grow it, then use a finite fossil fuel source to cut it down to our preferred size on a regular basis. Despite being a "standard" of 1st world living, no one seems to consider even for a moment what a colossal fucking waste of time, energy and resources that goes into maintaining one's lawn.
what impressed me about Bruce Sterling's "Regulators" was that they lived in home-made buses powered by homebrew biofuels. they would drive from one ecological disaster area to another, mowing any scraggly grass and weeds they could find, and using genetically engineered bacteria to break it down into materials that could either be eaten, or turned into fuel, or used as building material for their buses.
it's science fiction, and the lifestyle was grubby and hard, but it was the most realistic view of the future i've ever seen.
>Technical jobs will replace the hard labor jobs.
no, they aren't. a metal machining shop used to employ twenty lathe operators and one supervisor.
now, they employ one CNC operator who runs twenty machines, and a supervisor/programmer. everyone else got fired, and there aren't enough technical jobs for them all. unless you think "blogger" is a real job.
by you? so you're going to become a thug in the pay of the one percent?
nice work, while it lasts. then they introduce one of these, and your useless ass gets kicked to the curb, too.
Dude, watch psycho pass. They have a fully automated ag industry. Not all manufacturing is automated though. Some industry requires human interaction for a lot of reasons. Most people work in service industries though.
It's an appropriate stylistic choice for the setting, I think.
that's the one problem i have with mamabliss. incredible ideas, but a lot of the time i can't read the text.
I stand with Stephen Hawking on this one. We can not have one or two people owning all the automation companies. We should redistribute the "robot wealth" amongst all the people at some point in time, splitting robot profits among the people, even if they do not work. With automation we can really achieve an economic utopia.
Mental health. Everyone is crazy in the future.
>We can not have one or two people owning all the automation companies.
who's going to stop them?
it's only crazy if you're poor.
if you're rich, it's "eccentric". and they don't need a hundred thousand psych nurses.
face it, we aren't needed any more. just like the ten thousand people who all just got fired from Intel.
isn't that right, creepy beetle-headed robot?
revolutions only happen when there is a small gap between the weapons owned by the rich, and the weapons that the poor can get hold of.
this state of affairs last happened in the west in 1919.
even if you're an average american and you own a golf-bag full of guns, the rich can afford dozens of guards with automatic weapons and A LOT MORE AMMUNITION.
have you ever seen a water riot?
fighting over the last food is one thing, but when people start to die of thirst they get truly desperate.
Those machines had to be built and have to be maintained. Those are still jobs, and technical jobs at that. And I think one man running 20 CNC machines is batshit crazy. Try two.... or maybe 3. Automation isn't quite that efficient yet unless if they have each machine set up to make one part and ONLY one part and nothing ever needs adjusted.
We live in an era of rapid technological advancement. People ahead of the curve with technical skills; maintenance electricians, CNC skills, programmers, and repair guys; seem to be making the best living.
Office bureaucracy is on it's way out (which was a huge part of the collapse of the American dream), thank god. With each company having one red-tape policy bureaucrat (who really has no purpose except to impede efficiency) per one worker who actually, you know, works.... it has kept wages low for the men that actually *work* rather than talk about working all day. But that is quickly changing. All those 4 year requiring office jobs are quickly disappearing, being replaced by computer programs, or in case of the "do-nothing" bureaucrats (most of them), being replaced by no one at all.
And some grunt brainless labor is being replaced by 3rd world drones.
The key to surviving and thriving in modern society is to have skills this new job market actually has need for. Technicians. Or the trades that are still difficult to automate.
are employing fewer and fewer people as machines become more modular in construction. twenty years ago you could repair a computer by desoldering a damaged component. today, they just replace the entire motherboard because the components are too small and cheap to bother with replacing.
and if you're thinking about tech support for software, please hold while we transfer you to another automated script. press 1 to listen to this message again. press 2 to listen to the same message read by a different machine voice.
Here's the catch 22. The wealthy realize that they don't technically need government regulation. And workers realize we don't need government regulation. But the problem is without the government regulation the whole world becomes a shit show
>And I think one man running 20 CNC machines is batshit crazy.
i've seen it. you can scream THAT'S BATSHIT CRAZY but that's how machining works these days. you don't have to stand next to the machine and press a button every 30 seconds. supervisor loads the program, you load the materials, press START and you check it every few minutes to make sure it's still going.
feeling nervous yet? you should be.
Dude, I have worked in machine shops before. Like I said, it was honestly one man per one CNC machine for the most part. Unless if they just have them set up to load material and just make the same damn part (and nothing but the same part), there's still a lot of work required to run CNC.
the dude asked what a viable alternative system was and you proceeded to write four fucking paragraphs in response without even addressing the concept of a viable alternative system at all. you just said "i don't wanna fuckin mow my lawn anymore" and "look at pollution".
fucking liberals i swear
The only way to truly have an equal society is to become one harmonized "tribe" where we pool all our recources together. Right now the corporations are trying to matain there slave ship.
It seems that the silicon valley types who are making millions automating jobs have taken to believing in a kind of soft-Objectivism. Ever see the movie The Incredibles? That's basically their view of reality. Only "special" people will matter and the rest will have to be satisfied with what they are given: a tiny living wage or part-time work.
I think we're already starting to see depopulation occur on its own. It's too expensive/hard to have kids (or at least the three required to increase the population), you'd never get to go on that vacation if you have a family; and video games, TV, and porn are just so cheap. Maybe things will all work out once the rest of the world catches the first-world population decline bug. Of course, then you'd have to deal with economies in decline. I suppose that would bring capitalism to its end forcing a change to whatever comes next.
By sharing the wealth/resources, you make it hard for any man who otherwise would outperform others (intellectually or physically), and get rid of any impetus for creativity or entrepreneurship, which really the entirety of modern society/markets are based upon.
And you must create a class of enforcer type thugs who redistribute wealth from those who've earned it... who instead become the ruling caste. And as we've seen from all societies attempting this model, that goes bad extremely quickly.
Without the profit motive, no one invests capital and no one innovates, which causes stagnation of markets and ideas.
Communism just doesn't work dude. It might look good on paper but there's simply no viable route to achieve those dreams without stealing from the productive to give with the worthless which has many horrible repercussions.
The libertarian dream of unimpeded markets safe from government meddling, looters, and leeches; would be best for all.... except those who simply do not or will not contribute (which are often the same that tend to favor communist type ideals).
In quite a few countries in Europe and Africa they're doing basic mandatory income. We tried in it Canada in the 70s, worked great. We're about to start it up again.
We (the world as a whole) are redesigning the economy to prepare for it. It'll be fine.
And that's what I mean when I say "tribal" there would still have to be some form of regulation to what the recources would need to be used for and how and etc... I believe computers will set us free. Only when we can upload out brains to the Internet can we truly be free from the problems of the material world.
Tech fields as in something that isn't basic customer service, kind of obvious. Software development, or development in general, whether it be self or through a company is always promising.
>this level of class consciousness on /b/ of all places
Human irrelevance in the face of increasing automation is what Marx saw even in his time, and so this subject has been debated for a century and a half within leftist circles.
All you people who hate "communism", but agree that we should all benefit from automated production rather than allowing just a few people to monopolize it and force the rest of us into jobless destitution need read some communist theory. If you can see past the MSM propaganda (left wing = big government, for example), you'll find it enlightening I'm sure.
The future is a tiny elite of incredibly rich people who spend their time whining about how unfair it is that they have to pay for tents and Soylent to keep the impoverished masses alive.