It's that time again faggots.
Argue relentlessly even though the only answer is you double your chance to win by switching.
Always switch
INB4
> but I want a goat
> I'm Muslim
> the other door has the goats ass
> one other I can't remember
Guessing blind out of three doors gives you a 1 out of 3 chance to choose the correct one.
After he tells you which one it isn't. Now you can guess 1 out of 2.
How is this hard you dumb niggers.
>>690296824
This anon is not retarded.
Enjoy the incoming shitstorm of retardation anon
>>690296970
Because you're a nigger so you're too dumb to understand it.
>>690296970
Fucks sake faggot...
Why post that image?
It's not a "dirty sluts wearing clothes" thread.
>>690297176
Uhh my response was correct. Please explain mr. smartypants mc autism.
For all you idiots who don't understand why switching is better.
>>690297534
Your response was wrong Mr Dumbpants.
The OP says the truth.
Switching doubles your chance to win .
What is even the point of this? It doesn't even tell me what I'm trying to acchieve. For what it's worth I may as well turn around and leave instead of opening random doors.
>>690297773
>being this fucking retarded.
>>690296648
1st door, stay, wrong. 1/4
1st door, stay, right. 1/4
1st door, switch to second door, wrong. 1/4
1st door, switch to second door, right. 1/4
1/4 + 1/4 = im 100% right
>>690297711
I think the reason this is hard to understand is because the problem is always framed as a game show in which case it is more complicated than simple math statistics.
>>690297534
Sorry, I'm used.to morons, not people asking...
You.choose 1/3, you have 2/3 chance of being wrong.
Host opens a wrong door, now you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong, and you know one door is wrong.
If you have a 2/3 chance being wrong, and you KNOW another door is wrong, theres a 2/3 chance you now know where both wrong doors are.
If there's a 2/3 chance.you know where both wrong doors are, then switching is 2/3 to win.
> am.am . drunk forgive shit explanation .
>>690298527
lol
>>690298020
But that's right, so.you are the retard...
Congratulations on your potato future
>>690298527
ey im drunk too.
and u wrote what i was gonna. learned that in the decision theory course i took at uni
>>690296648
you dont double you chance, you increase it from 33% to 50%
>>690297472
gay
>>690298193
You're retarded on 2 levels.
Not only do you not understand the problem, but you posted 4 potential outcomes, each with a 1/4 chance to be correct, but you said 2 of them are right.
I will never be able to understand this shit. why would you switch? the chance would be 50/50 either way.
>>690298486
No, it's because people sperg out and refuse to accept any answer other than the one they thought of.
If they were open to the possibility of being wrong, they'd see many counts of proof in this thread, but they ARE NOT WRONG, so they are destined to be retards.
what if there are 2 people picking doors, should both switch when there is only 2 doors left?
>>690297534
>>690298020
You're switching your 33% odds for 66% odds, its not just picking between 1/2 for 50%
>>690298645
>>690298957
Yeah, but I'm OP, so I'm too drunk to it plain to dummies fact I've lyrics
At least I can laugh it them tho.
>>690299049
> choose 1/3
> 50%
Surely you see the problem there?
can we turn this thread into a drinking game
>>690299101
I agree, it's gay.
>>690299271
But it's not
What was your chance of choosing correctly on your first Choice?
>>690299484
If each h individual wants to win for themselves, then yes.
Extra players in a game doesn't mean extra winners.
>>690300708
Sound good.
Everytime someone says something g retarded, or you see 50, you take a shot.
You'll be dead within an hour of 404 unless you have a friend to call the amber lamps for you
>>690301386
i got a half gal of vodka and a fifth of some viniq to get pumped out of my stomach Let's go.
Think this is the pic I meant to post to start with.
it is 50/50
>>690301775
No it isnt
How can any choice out of three ever be 50/50?
Sorry, random image, because browser went sperg and wouldn't let me post without an image.
>>690301663
its always a 50% chance to get a car, it doesnt matter if you switch or not. all these fucking retards need to kill themselves and stop adding to the gene pool.
>HEY GUYS MY FIRST GUESS WAS 1/3 BUT SOMEHOW THE HOST PICKING A GOAT OUT OF THE OTHER TWO CHANGES THIS TO 50%
because the chance of any event happening is 50%
So why would I switch if the goat door being opened has made both 1 and 2 a 50% chance of winning? Can't I stay with door 1 and still have 50% winning chance?
>>690303023
You should kill yourself because you're the retard...
If you think it's 50/50, explain how a choice out of three can have a result of 50/50...
Awaiting explanation of impossible mathematics, or admission of fault.
>>690303611
That is so wrong that you can't even understand it.
>>690296648
I am muslim I take goat. Keep the other doors.
>>690301508
I got a half bottle of vodka and 8-9 7% cans in me....
Let's play
>>690302823
Because only retard like you would still think over choosing the opened door
>>690304086
why? It is just obvious.
>>690304181
You got inb4'd faggot.
Take.your shitty expected jokes elsewhere...
For fucks sake, you don't lurk, it was the Seco d or third post that inb4'd your faggotry
>>690300663
If you're not a muslim then your're not taking the third option into account so its 1/2
>>690303962
show me my fault please, fucking faggot
>>690304377
You chose before that door was open.
If you choose 1/3, you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the winner.
Anything that happens after that cannot change those odds (except every door being opened).
You suffer from the curse of the stupid person. ..
You.thi K you're smarter than everyone else.
Don't feel bad, every stupid person suffers from this.
>>690296648
select one at random and your chances of wining are 1/3
after he opens a door any door you choose will have a 1/2 probability of being the right one. the fact that you picked a door before does not influence the second scenario
>>690303962
So, the host opened the door, revealed the goat and you're still taking this door into account? It's still a choice out of three for you?
>>690304912
/thread
>>690304912
The X's aren't possible because the host knows not to reveal the door with the goat.
>>690305240
Looking at those trolling faggots they still would think over that
>>690304435
You.chose 1 door out of 3.
That means there's a 2/3 chance you didn't choose the winner.
So there's do u less chance.you DO NOT have the winner.
Host open a loser door.
Now there's only 2 doors left, but there's still a 2/3 chance you're door is a loser.
Swith WI
>>690305240
you are on /b/. good thing i explained it to you.
>>690304932
Because I AM smarter than everyone else
>>690296824
Thats a valid point, But I don't agree with you
goatrolling
>>690304435
Sorry anon, I'm drunk K as fuck..
Think like thus and ignore the other reply....
You have a 2/3 chance of choosing wrong.
Host opens opens a wrong door
Now you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong, but there's only one other door that could be right.
Your door is 2/3 chance.of being wrong, so the other door HAS to be 2/3 chance to be right.
Just read the image here>>690301663
And think about it.
If you.choose a goat and switch, you win.
If you choose the car and switch, you lose.
You have double the chance of choosing a goat, so switching doubles your chances.to win..
>>690305971
see >>690304912
you waste of human existence
>>690304976
Well if the host revealed the goat, the game would be over...
Good thing the text in the OP image makes sure that can't happen.
You.did read the words right?
You didn't just look at the picture and grunt?
Here's a chart I made to explain it
>>690306249
Are you drunk too?
>>690304912
Hahaha. .. you got rekt by somone linking my drunken explanation...
You are actually so fucking dumb, that a ridiculously drunk person could explain it in a way that makes what you just scribbled look stupid.
Well played faggot.
Hope you're not aiming for a math or science degree once you finish highschool
>>690298445
yeah, whoever made that graph is fucked in the head. It's a bit more complicated than that, more reason you fucks will never understand
>>690305682
OK Timmy.
Where's your nurse?
Call out for your carer, you need help right now, and she's the only one that can give it to you.
>>690305839
Doesn't matter if you agree or not.
Fact is indisputable
>>690299049
to 66%
>>690306139
That poorly scribbled chart is wrong.
I'm sure linking it to me made you feel good, but it's blatantly wrong
>>690306902
That table is great. It clearly shows the outcomes, without having to delve into the statistics.
>>690306941
I'm smarter than my nurse, so i'll be okay
>>690306624
> too?
In comparison to who?
>>690307312
explain why
protip: you can't
>>690307448
>>690305971
to this babbling faggot
Imagine 100 doors. You choose one.
Host opens 98 doors with goat.
Stay or change?
Think you got correct door at first try?
Holy shit, we'll know I know the truth about the threads where people brag about their IQ..
I'm a math/stats major, this was an actually problem we spent a lecture on and had to create a proof on, I'll see if I can explain this in a way this near illiterate board can get. The correct answer is 'SWITCH'.
To start every given has a probability of 0.33 of winning, opening all three doors is guaranteed so it has a chance of 1, and so any combination of two door together have a probability of 0.67.
So the door you pick has 0.33, and the two doors you don't pick sum to 0.67. After you pick, one door of the set of two is opened, while that particular door falls to 0, the set of both door stays constant, meaning that the other door in this set of two has a probability of 0.67 and therefore you have a better chance of winning if you switch.
I think this is easier to see if you have say 10 doors. First you select, say, door 1. This single door has a chance of success of 0.1, just like every other individual door. But together all the other doors have a collective probability of containing the prize of 0.9. Now we open 8 doors, with no prize behind them, these 8 that get opened cant include your original door or the door with the prize/one random door in the 0.1 chance event that you originally selected the right door. Knowing that, do you think you are so lucky that your original pick was right or do recognize that there is 90% you picked the wrong door to start and now the only other that wasn't able to be opened has the prize? Obviously you switch.
Also the mythbusters experimentally proved that 'Switch' is the correct answer by actually getting people to play the game.
So let's put this to bed.
>>690306902
Nope not at all more complicated
>>690306902
There's nothing g complicated about this.
> pick 1/3
> 2/3 chance to be wrong
> host removes a wrong
> host let's you change your choice.
> only one choice left.
Your door still has 2/3 to be wrong, that means the only other door left must have 2/3 to be right...
I already said, read the image, and think this.
You have a 2/3 chance of choosing a wrong door.
Host opens a wrong door.
Now there's a 2/3 chance you.know where BOTH wrong doors are.
Switching wins 2/3
>>690307406
Assuming your 13, statistically you have 67 years to live, and trust me, each h year goes faster than the last.
You won't be ok..
You'll spend the next 15-20 years telling yourself you'll be ok, then you'll. Wake up and ask yourself what the fuck.you were doing all those years.
>>690307368
Except. It doesn't show all the outcomes.
>>690296970
The door that he shows you depends on which door you initially picked so the first choice and second choice are not statistically uncorrelated. If there is a 2/3 chance you chose the goat there is still a 2/3 chance you are wrong after he shows you the goat.
>>690305402
Agree
>>690307646
Well you linked to the post you replied to, so I'm wondering if maybe you've had a few.
And yes, both you linked were me, so no drunk "too", just drunk...
Doesn't make you any less of a retard for not understanding math
>>690306376
That makes sense
>>690309398
Thanks anon....
Mostly because you could follow my drunken typng
Not so hard when you understand the concept and is jot retarded.
>>690309691
It shouldn't considering there's six choices for each door.
>>690296824
Correct answer.
>>690298486
The problem is that people use heuristic reasoning and answer a different question than the one presented. The question they answer is about two uncorrelated statistical events. This question is quite a bit easier but unfortunately gives the wrong answer. If the uncorrelated question were harder people would have to do this type of thing
>>690306376
And they would be much less likely to make the incorrect choice. If you are interested read thinking fast and slow which is the book that popularised this problem.
To clear this up (with facts), both popular answers are actually correct. It can either be 2/3 chance of wining by switching or 1/2 chance of winning by switching! The determining factor is the assumed host behaviour, and that is not well defined hence the confusion.
IF we assume the host ALWAYS reveals a goat (so he knows where the car is), then by switching you ALWAYS achieve 2/3 chance of winning - FACT! This is logical - take a moment to think through this scenario. Let's say you pick door one - we all agree you have a 1/3 chance of winning. By switching in this scenario, you essentially guarantee to cover doors two and three (2/3 chance), as the host has just done you the favour of taking out one goat option from doors 2 & 3 (but critically his informed decision to remove a goat does not including door 1)! Take a moment to work this out, it makes perfect sense.
IF we assume the host has to GUESS a door (so there's a 1/3 chance he picks the car by chance), then by staying or switching you ALWAYS achieve 1/2 chance of winning where the host has randomly guessed a goat door (obviously 0 chance if he picks the car door). The host choice impacts the odds on the two remaining doors equally, as he hasn't given us any additional information in this scenario unlike when he made an informed decision in the previous scenario.
I hope this helps clear this one up! For what it's worth these are facts above, so rather then debating with me take a moment to think it through - it really does make sense!
>>690310507
OK author Joe.
What's the answer then?
You seem happy to write a novel, but never actually answer the question.
>>690310556
There is no assumed host behaviour.
Host behaviour is clearly outlined in the OP image.
You've chosen the door so you've got 1/3 chance you're right. Then the host open the wrong door. Now it's like a new game. The third door magically disappear. You have 2 options. You can either choose the first one or the second one.
>>690310507
I'll check out the book if I have time. A lot of people have trouble wrapping their mind around the concept that switching actually does improve their chance of winning.
>>690310768
Switching gives you a .66 chance of winning that was proven in the post I quoted.
>>690310958
Nope the events are correlated because the door the host opens depends on your first choice.
>>690310958
It doesn't magically dissappear.
You chose 1/3.
Your odds are 1/3
Nothing can change that.
>>690310958
you are a retard
>>690300907
33%...
>>690310145
While picking either goat results in a loss regardless of which you get, they are still two separate entities when it comes to mapping out all the possible outcomes of the problem.
>>690311077
Don't listen to this faggot. The book he's advertising was published in 2011, the monty hall problem (THE THREAD), started in 1975
>>690311331
Holy crap... you're right. Now I get it somehow.
>>690310958
No. Its based on your first fucking choice
If you have 1 in 3 chance of landing on a car... and he opens 1 door. It doesnt magically increases your chance of being correct. There are always 2 goats. Obviously you can only land on 1 goat... there will always be a second goat that he can show you, but it doesnt increase your odds
>>690310927
Unfortunately it's not explicit, hence a lot of the confusion (and also the reason there was much confusion when this problem was first presented to the public).
The example given tells us the host reveals a goat. It does not tell us if the host knowingly chose to reveal that goat because he knows where the car is (in which case switching = 2/3 chance) or if the host just happened to pick a door by chance that had a goat behind it (in which case switching = 1/2 chance).
Does that make sense?
>>690311226
Which post?
Better not be the one that had 6 outcomes per choice.
>>690311357
wrong. you should change your chance is 2/3 that door 2 is right. sounds stupid, but try it out. btw, video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
>>690311460
Which mean 66% the winner is behind behind a door you didn't choose right?
>>690310958
This guy gets it
can someone explain to me how the fuck your second door still has 0.33 chance, when the host has shown that the door you opened is not the correct door?
how does this new information not instantly bring your chances for the remaining two doors to 0.5 each, given that you now know the car is behind one of the two remaining doors. why do you not just completely discount the first door?
are these hypothetical people just incapable of absorbing information?
>>690312074
It can never become a 1/2 chance.
There is a 2/3 chance you chose a goat. A 1/3 chance you chose a car. If 1 door is revealed and shows a goat. You can switch and double your odds. This is because now... there is only 1 goat hidden, and 3 doors. So if you ignore the open door, and chose the new door. There is a 2/3 chance it has a car
>>690296648
You don't double your chance. It goes from a 33% chance to get it right to a 50% chance.
When you choose the first door there is a 1 in 3 chance you are correct. When the door is revealed it goes from a 1 in 3 to a 1 in 2 chance you picked correctly if and ONLY IF you switch.
>>690311562
That is correct.
Which means...
> goat
> goat
> car
3, not 6.
There's can't ever be 6 anything. ...
It's It's a choice out of three for fucks sake.
>>690312061
Actually, if we assume the host has knowingly revealed a door with a goat, then it does change the odds significantly. Think of it this way;
If you're going to follow a switching strategy, and the host is always going to reveal one of the two goats, you can essentially ALWAYS cover 2/3 of the doors.
If you're choosing a switching strategy, by picking door one (1/3 chance) you've actually just chosen the only door you WON'T be covering. The host now is limited to pulling out a goat between doors two and three, leaving you with the car door to switch to providing the car was in either door two or three to begin with (2/3 chance). The only way you can lose in this switching scenario is if you happened to guess the correct door at the start (1/3 chance).
All this assumes the host knows where the car is and chooses to reveal the goat. If the host is guessing at random, the logic doesn't hold.
>>690312074
It does. ...
It literally says...
> the host will open one of the doors ypu DID NOT select TO REVEAL a goat
Maybe you have comprehension issues, but don't take your problems and spread them as gospel when your as wrong as a cocksucking priest.
>>690312254
It has six outcomes because there are six possible arrangements of the things behind the door.
What is wrong with you guys? It's so bloody simple. There's 1/3 chance the car is behind the door you picked, and 2/3 chance it's behind the other 2 doors. The host reveals a goat behind one of the other 2 doors, but that doesn't change the fact that it's 2/3 chance behind the other two doors. So now the unrevealed door you didn't pick has a 2/3 chance of having the car, while the door you picked originally still has a 1/3 chance. Switch!
>>690312515(You)
i'll take your avoidant silence to mean i'm right.
>>690312679
Please read my previous post linked below which explains, it all comes down to assumed host behaviour. All will become clear. Just to clarify, this is a well known problem with a definitive answer, I'm not making this up. Google "Monty Hall problem".
>>690310556
>>690312727
No.
When you chose the first door you have a 1/3, that can't change.
You have a 1/3 chance to be right, a 2/3 chance that a door you DIDNT choose is the winner.
now the host opens a door.
Now there's still a 2/3 the prize is behind a door you didn't choose, but there's only one door left you didn't choose.
You should switch to that door, because it had a 2/3 chance.
>>690312727
Thats fucking retarded. Its always out of 3
Look lets make an exampe
1. 2. 3.
One of those doors has a car. The other 2 have goats (lets pretend door 2 has the goat)
If you choose door 1, then you have a 1/3 chance of being right. And a 2/3chance of being wrong
(1.) 2. 3.
Now the hose reveals thar door 3 had a goat, he then gives you the option to change your answer.
(1.) 2. X
knowing that door 1 has a 33%chance of being correct and that door 2 and 3 had a 66% chance.... you will want to pick door 2... because door 2 is essentially letting you pick 2 doors. Door 2 comes with whatever is behind it, plus the knowledge that door 3 had a goat. So, it is less likely that 2 and 3 have a goat. So you choose door 2
>>690313114
I was talking to someone who said that door 1 bow has a 50% chance. Im not retarded. They are
>>690313743
>>690313731
These guys get it.
>>690313198
Not explicitly clear if that is describing what happened (the host did this, and the result was he revealed a goat) or if it is implying the host made an informed decision to pick a goat door.
For what it's worth I would interpret it the same way you have, but evidently a lot of people on this thread have either interpreted it differently or don't understand the problem presented.
>>690296648
> first pick 1/3 chance of being right, call this group A
> the other two doors combined have 2/3, group B
> after the goat is revealed group B consists of one door, and it is logically the better choice.
> selection A still has 1/3 chance of being the optimal choice.
This has been established mathematically, and you can even do your own simulations of it on numerous interactive websites.
>>690314017
THANK YOU. these people are fucking retarded. They fail to comprehend. In fact they dont even listen. They swear its 50%
>>690313226
But there's 3 of them.
He fucked up.
There's 3 outcomes for each door.
There's is so much wrong with what your saying it's clear that you don't understand it which explains why his bullshit seems to make sense to you.
> 6 possible arrangements of things behind the door.
There are 3 doors, and if there was 6 arrangements behind each that would make 18....
It's wrong.
>>690313743
>knowing that door 1 has a 33%chance
but it no longer has a 33% chance. it now has a 50% chance, because we know there is a goat behind door 3.
just because you chose the door before the emergence of now information does not make that information redundant. as soon as the host reveals the goat your chances go up to 50%, without you doing anything.
>>690312374
I'm OP you Moron.
>>690314013
Well interestingly it still depends on assumed host behaviour. If you assume the host doesn't know where the goats are, and has just picked door 3 at random which happens to be a goat, then door 1 and door 2 both DO have a 50% chance of having the car.
However the generally accepted interpretation is the host is consciously choosing a door with a goat, hence 67% chance with switching.
>>690312515
It brings it to 0.66
Now suck my silence you pretentious fuck.
>>690314480
Youre not entirely wrong. Door 1 will increase to 50%. But door 2 has 66% chance.... but what we are all talking about is door 2 becoming 66%
>>690312515
>>690314480
anybody?
>>690314789
Nom you're retarded.
If you chose door 1
And the host randomly reveals or consciously reveals door 3 to show a goat, then technically door 1 has a 33% chance, while door 2 has a 66% chance. Because door 1 was chosen before the goat was revealed
>>690314881
so much stupidity
>>690314881
door 1 increases to 50% but door 2 has 66%? so there is a 133% chance there is a car?
fucking hell...
Everytime this thread is posted many people get trolled and still believe that people really think that the two door are both 50%.
It's hilarious to see so many people baited in a thread.
>>690314881
>116%
First of all lets just clarify this:
The host always knows behind which door the car is and will never open that one after you made your first guess, otherwise the show wouldn't work.
But now to the explanation:
As mentioned by someone else before you have to imagine that you have to choose 1 from 100 doors.
There is only one car so the chance to get the right door on the first guess is 1 in 100.
After you chose one door, there are 99 others left and the host will open 98 of them.
Now you just have to ask yourself:
Which is higher; the chance that you got the right door at the first try(1/100), or the chance that the host can open 98 doors with just one left andd theres one door he definitely can't open (the one with the car behind it).
>>690314150
Yes, explicitly clear in the sense of it LITERALLY SAYS THIS WORDS
you still didn't look at or read the fucking OP image you dumb faggot.
>>690314480
Assuming the host has knowingly chosen to reveal a goat (rather than randomly guessing), this isn't the case. Your odds from switching go up to 66%.
Think of it this way, when you initially pick a door in this given scenario with a switching strategy, you are in fact picking the only door you won't ultimately be covering. So that 1/3 chance to win you initially have is actually the 1/3 chance to lose you end up with - as if you happened to pick the correct door first time around, you will lose by switching.
So say you pick door one (1/3 chance). The host now does you the favour of eliminating a goat from the population of door two + three (but critically not including door one), and it's that action that shifts the odds. By switching now to the remaining door, you are in essence covering both door two and three through the hosts action. The only way you can lose is if the initial 1/3 decision you made turns out to have been the car after all. The key here is to understand the host is making an informed decision to remove a goat out of the remaining unpicked doors specifically, not out of the entire population of three doors. Make sense?
>>690314324
But that's why I make these threads.
Sure it's painful seeing this level of retardation, but you gotta admit, it's pretty entertaining at the same time.
One of the main issues people have with this problem is that they dont understand how probabilities can be changing as a result of a door being taken away. But the probabilities dont really change.
Visualize it this way. Sort into 2 groups. Group 1 has only door 1. Group 2 has doors 2 and 3. Group 1 obviously only has a 33% chance of winning, while group 2 has a 67% chance of winning. If you take away a door from group 2, group 1 and 2 still retain a 33% and 67% chance of winning, respectively. However, that 67% chance of winning for group 2 is no longer being divided by multiple doors. Just the one remaining door. So, it makes more sense to switch your pick to group 2.
>>690314480
Door 1 has a 33% because there are still 3 doors. Door 1 is the door you chose. 2 and 3 were not chosen. There is a 66%chance that the car is in one of those doors. If one door is revealed as a goat door. The othet door then has 66%chance. You are a retard
>>690314881
He is entirely wrong, and you are just as retarded as he is
>>690315507
>First of all lets just clarify this:
The host always knows behind which door the car is and will never open that one after you made your first guess, otherwise the show wouldn't work.
this just made me get it. there is a higher chance that they first door you picked will have a goat, and the host will ALWAYS open a goat door that is NOT the door which you picked. so chances are the remaning door is the car.
thanks anon! i've been one of those people who gets really rarked up about this question. hopefully now i can explain it clearly to other dumbasses like me.
>>690315260
I'm afraid you're mistaken.
Look up the Monty Hall problem, and more specifically "Monty Fall" or "Ignorant Monty", where the host does not know what lies behind the doors, and opens one at random that happens not to reveal the car. It's explained in detail there if my previous explanation didn't work for you.
If you don't understand why the random vs concious host decision makes a difference, you simply don't understand the puzzle in either instance. You've been told the answer is 66% and you've found a way to justify that to yourself without truly understanding it - else you'd know the concious decisioning by host is the key aspect to shifting the odds in your favour by switching.
>>690312733
Yes, only of those 3 things can be behind one the door. The 6 options I listed were the 6 possible combinations of those 3 things behind 3 doors at the begin of the game.
D1 D2 D3
1. Car G1 G2
2. Car G2 G1
3. G1 Car G2
4. G1 G2 Car
5. G2 Car G1
6. G2 G1 Car
>>690315518
Either you're trolling or dumb, either way I can't be bothered to explain to you again that your interpretation of the words in the OP image are not the only possible interpretation of those same words. I literally spelt it out to you in the previous post for fuck sake.
>>690314789
There's is no ASSUMED HOST BEHAVIOUR
Host behaviour is clearly fucking outlined you dumb fucking faggots.
Pic related you moron....
It's not ambiguous, it's directly factual
Read the red words and either explain or admit.admit . your faggotry
I made a program to test it out.
Switching is the only option.
>>690316060
Im not the 116% idiot... but im gonna respond to you. Whether his decision was conscious or not, the door you chose (door 1) will always have a 33% chance
Leaving a 66%chance among door 2 and 3. Once a goat door is removed from 2 or 3.... the odds of the left over door. Double. Leaving door 2 with 66%, compared to door 1 with 33%
>>690316572
if there's no assumed host behaviour then that means it is ambiguous. we are not told whether he knows he is opening a goat door or not, and that makes a big difference to the stats.
>>690315463
If you think they don't actually believe it's 50%, you're trolling yourself, which makes you the dumbest cunt in this thread so far.
>>690316572
Please see below:
>>690316411
Also please note this is a incredibly well known problem ("Monty Hall") and the incredibly well known misinterpretation that goes along with that problem and caused many people far smarter than you or I to incorrectly assumed 50/50 odds is exactly the issue I've eluded to.
But congratulations on understanding it correctly first time. I do apologise for explaining it to others on this thread.
Oh no wait this is the internet... I mean fuck off.
>>690316833
It says in OP's post that the Host with open a door you didn't pick with a goat behind it. Since there are 2 goats and you can only pic one door there will always be a goat behind another door after you make your first pick
>>690316306
Each goat is not an individual prize. Infact, ignore the goats. Pretend the doors are empty except for the door with the car
1.car empty empty
2.empty car empty
3. Empty empty car
This is why the game is always x/3
And never x/2
Philosophically, even if you don't switch doors you're still choosing a door. Just ponder on that a second; it's important. So if you have two door and you need to select one of them, you got a 50/50 shot regardless of if you switch or not. So in reality it doesn't matter what you do because the lizard people always win.
>>690316823
This isn't up for debate friend. It's a well know problem with a definitive answer. If in doubt, consult wikipedia, find the page on "Monty Hall problem", search for the phrase "ignorant monty" on that page and read the information available.
If you still have questions, come back to me.
>>690316788
Shitty frame rate while recording but here's it in action
>>690317582
This guy gets it.
>>690317582
The lizard person (who I assume is the host) is eliminating a goat door from you, but specifically from the population of doors you didn't originally pick. Ergo, the odds move in your favour if you switch. Fact bro, fact.
>>690315011
Manybody's have already said this is wrong.
What are you asking for?
>>690317253
yeah, but of the host is not aware of which door he is picking there is a chance he will open the car door, which fucks the whole thought experiment / game show.
so do we assume he in conscious of the door he is opening? because that is the only way that switching betters your chances.
>>690317635
It's always x/3
It's never x/2
>>690296648
i'm starving to death and i can't eat a car
>>690296648
Someone has been watching numberphile on youtube you're awesome OP
>>690317835
But you still chose a door by not switching. When presented with 2 options you have 50% chance of being right. No matter what you do you have a 50/50.
>>690296648
If the show always plays out the same way, then the first door pick is irrelevant: you have a 100% chance of the host revealing a goat and asking if you want to change your choice.
The only choice that matters is between the last two doors; the revealed goat does not factor in. Your odds are 50/50.
>>690318186
NUMBERPHILE RUINED MY LIFE!
>>690315011
Anybody what?
Explain that it's wrong, again...
Read the fucking thread Timmy.
>>690297711
I wish I had this display when I was first seeing this problem explained to me. because it really does break your intuition on first glance.
>>690296648
Does your mother have autism as well?
>>690315260
But the host didn't choose randomly you dumb fuck.
What made you think the host chose randomly?
>>690318291
No they're fucking not.
see
>>690317657
If you change you have a 66% chance of winning, if you stay you have a 33% chance of winning.
Is a 21,638 play sample size not big enough for you?
>>690296648
what tells me there isnt a goat behind all 3 doors. retard post the full pic next time
>>690317841
>>690318392
stop trying to get a rise samefag fagfucker. i posted that before i saw anyone had responded directly, and i've also changed my mind on the whole thing so go crawl back into your moms vagina.
>>690317200
I don't know why you linked OP's post explaining the choice isn't random, to an explanation on reality.
Too much crystal I'm guessing.
>>690296648
Its very simple faggots. You have a 2/3 chance of being wrong the first time. So chances are you picked the wrong door the first time.
By switching doors you are betting that you chose wrong the first time.
If you stay, your odds of winning are 1/3.
If you switch, your odds of winning are 2/3.
/thread
>>690318583
Because if there are 3 door and you subtract 1/3 we have 2/3. With me so far? Then if you subtract 2 and add 1 we get -1/3. It's a common fact that the integral of -1/3 is -1/3x where x is initial (-)goats. We then get 1. Finally we divide by 2 and we end up with 1/2 or 50%. Go read a book, anon.
>>690317635
The problem with that, is they allow the guy to void the game... which effectively kills the game 33% of the time. But if he never voids the game, then it stays at 33% for door 1. And 66% for door 2. Thr5 only time it goes to a 1/2 is if 1/3 games become void. But notice that if the game becomes void.... that means that we chose incorrectly .. meaning door 2 and 3 as a group had a 66% chance the whole time.
>>690319139
this might be the best explanation ive ever heard ever. copied for future reference man ty.
I WILL KILL MYSELF ON LIVESTREAM IF YOU FAGGOTS ADMIT THAT OP IS RIGHT
>>690317324
Now you are the dumbest retard in this thread so far.
There's 2 different fucking goats, not 1 got that teleport between doors.
You think you're clever by your 3 line text, but you even fucked that up....
It's 3 possibilities...
> goat 1
> goat 2
> car
You do understand there's more than one goat in the world right?
>>690317324
I just labeled them separately to show all possible outcomes, it's the same odds if you don't count them separately or count them as empty. Even in your simplified example picking and staying wins 1/3 and pick and switching wins 2/3. Try it yourself on your own example. Pick and say with door 1 in all 3 possibilities you listed and you'll win 1/3 the times. Do the same with door 2 and 3 and you'll get the same answer, 1/3. Now try picking door 1 in all 3 possibilities you listed, then the host opens one of the doors you didn't pick that he knows to be empty, then switch to the only other door. After doing that with all 3 possibilities you listed you won 2/3. Now try it with door 2 and 3 and you'll get the same answer, 2/3
>>690317582
So what did your weekly horoscope say, and how much did you pay for it?
>>690319139
That's assuming regression to the mean applies. Some games assume this principle, but most forgo it. Good explanation, but I hope you refine your answer to include this next time.
>>690317635
You have to consider were dealing with Ameriburgers at the moment.
If you don't talk to them like children they just get angry and confused.
An easy way to think about is like this. You have 100 sets of 3 unknown numbers and you're looking for the biggest number. For simplicity, lets say your 1st choice is always the 1st number in the set. Without ever knowing what any of the numbers are, you're going to have chosen the largest number about 33 times. That means that the other 2 numbers will contain the largest number 67 times. When the host eliminates one of those two numbers as wrong, the number that is left has absorbed the odds of the eliminated number, so 67 times out of 100, that number is going to be higher than the one you initially chose.
>>690319576
I know. I was explaing to the dumbfuck who thinks it 6 possibilities.
>>690317930
The host knows what's behind every door though, he will never open the door with the car. If you pick the car door he'll open either one of the goat doors he wants, if you pick a goat door, hell open the other goat door.
>>690317657
Now if you were just smart enough to make that work with the problem, you'd be my newest hero, and most likely ongoing hero since there's little fun here anymore.
But you didn't, so you're. Just another faggot..
>>690320106
Don't say another Goddamn word. Up until now, I've been polite. If you say ANYTHING else - ONE word - I will kill myself. And when my tainted spirit finds its destination, I will topple the Master of that dark place. From my black throne, I will lash together a machine of bone and blood, and fueled by my hatred for you this Fear Engine will bore a hole between this world and that one. When it begins, you will hear the sound of children screaming -as though from a great distance. A smoking orb of NOTHING will grow above your bed, and from it will emerge a thousand starving crows. As I slip through the widening maw in my new form, you will catch only a glimpse of my radiance before you are incinerated. Then, as tears of bubbling pitch stream down my face, my dark world will begin. I will open one of my six mouths, and I will sing the song that ends the Earth.
>FIRST SELECTION IS CAR
>Switch results in loss
>Stay Results in win
>FIRST SELECTION IS GOAT 1
>Switch results in win
>Stay Results in loss
>FIRST SELECTION IS GOAT 2
>Switch results in win
>Stay results in loss
It's literally that simple.
Switch wins 2 out of 3 times.
>>690319519
It obviously isnt the same goat... but the method works the same with empty doors. This os because the goats are irrelevant. The point is. The door you choose has 2/3 chance of losing. By switchng after the host reveals a goat ... you are doubling your odds of success
>>690317930
> respond to a post quoting the host opening a door not chosen.
>says host is not aware of which door he is picking
How can people be this fucking retarded
>>690317930
You're fucked in the head
>>690320377
It goes from 33%. To 66% when you switch. Thats it. End of discussion faggot
>>690318146
Fuck off faggot.
A smart hobo can eat like a king.
If you can't feed yourself you deserve to die.
That applies to applies to any animal.
stay because i'd rather have a goat than a car
>>690318252
> no matter what you do you have a 50% chance
I chose one door from a choice of three, and it does and will alway have a 33% chance of having the prize.
There is no other choice u til after that point.
You are beyond retarded.
>>690297711
This assumes that you would always choose the right door if you switch. Right?
>>690318252
> you choose a door by not switching
Yeah faggot, that's called doing nothing.
>>690314449
No there are six possible arrangements of the three objects behind three doors. If you look you will see that none of the arrangements are repeated.
>>690321442
No. It assumes the statistic is correct and that if you switch, you win 66% of the time
>>690318291
Not 9 my did this faggot not read Amy post in the thread so far, he posted metaphysical bullshit image.
Go cure cancer with flower petals you pathetic excuse for a human.
>>690321442
It doesn't assume anything
It is correct
>>690296648
it's not doubled, but there is a greater probability of winning if you switch.
>>690318927
Before you posted that...
So we're just gonna ignore that it's been said and explain ed many times in this thread so far?
Why didn't you read the thread?
You like posting but not reading?
That makes you cancer..
Don't like to say it because at least you u dear stood, but for fucks sake, You couldn't at least slim a thread before posting?
CANCER!
>>690320106
Which is why I responded to you with: >>690319576
And yes there are technically 6 possibilities for how the game is set up because even though you lose regardless of what goat you pick they are still separate entities when mapping out the problem to show every single possible out come even if two have the same vicotry/loss result like how Car G1 G2 game would have the same result as Car G2 G1 game though from a technical stand point it would be listed as two different outcomes. I only listed them as such to show people that regardless of which goat you picked or which goat was opened by the host that it wouldn't effect on the 1/3 chances of picking and staying or the 2/3 chances of picking and switching.
You're all fukin wrong an retarded the answer is kill your dam self
>>690318146
Pick the door Monty opens duh!
>>690318927
> stop trying to get a rise
I'm OP you moron.
Why else would I make this thread?
Don't cry, nobodies trying to get anything fro.you, it's clear you're an idiot, so just crawl back to wherever you came from.
>>690320544
Some people just can fathom it
>>690321571
He's getting there
>>690322106
>its not doubled
>33.333 × 2 = 66.666
>facepalm.png
>>690319230
What the fuck does that have to do with the fact of the host not choosing randomly?
Did you reply to the wrong post, or did your fingers get excited?
>>690321370
>I chose one door from a choice of three, and it does and will alway have a 33% chance of having the prize.
So just to confirm, if you pick a door and I then open both the other doors to reveal two goats, you're sticking with your unopened door carrying a 33% chance of winning?
>>690322261
You know... how in school teachers marked you wrong for forgetting to simplify 5/10 into 1/2
Well thats what im doing
>>690319275
> void the game
Stop making a shit up faggot
>>690319486
I am right
This is so old. This was on numb3rs
>>690322741
I'm not the guy you asked, but to summarise;
If the host chooses randomly and just happens to pick a goat door, your odds are not enhanced by switching (it's 50% either way).
If the host consciously chooses to open a goat door, your odds are improved by switching (66%).
If you have questions, ask away. These are facts, but I'm happy to elaborate.
>>690322830
Separate scenerio. Door 1 is part of group A
Door 2 and 3 are part of group B
Group A has 33%chance. Group B has 66% chance. If door 1 is correct. It is because it will probably be correct 1 time every 3 times you try
Thats called probability
>>690320377
ANYTHING else
I said it, now you have to do it.
Livestream on younow
>>690323056
The article i read claimed the disregard void games. Which is a mistake because void games would make up for half of the time door 1 is wrong
>>690323511
They**** sorry. Typo
>>690320620
I'm OP, I know how it works...
That anon was saying that because 2 of the options were goats, it's essentially one choice, which it's a common retardation in these threads.
The fact that one of the doors is opened is irrelevant. The question should be rephrased, "you are allowed to pick one door. The host tells you information that you already know (at least one of the doors you didn't pick has a goat). Do you switch to the possibility that the car is behind either of the other two doors or do you stay with one door only?" The fact that the door is opened and you see the goat is clouding your judgment.
Why do people keep repeating this shit and not just take a while and think for themselves. It doesn't matter if you switch or not, whatever choice you take, you already know one thing: One of the doors you didn't pick has a goat, the thing that will change is whether there are 2 goats, or 1 goat and 1 car in the doors you didn't picked, what you know FOR FUCKING SURE is that at least 1 goat will be in one of the doors you didn't pick, what difference does it make when that door is revealed to you? You are not gaining any new information, you already knew that, and the situation changes because you are not going to choose the 3rd door anymore, you either have 1 and 2, the 1/3 probability cannot be applied anymore because the situation changed, it is 1/2 for each door closed.
>>690323787
Its not about reading the hosts actions. You don't need to read the hosts actions, they are stated in the question. The host will remove one door from the 3. A computer simulation wouldn't take this into account during its original decision unless programmed to do so (not that it would effect the original decision since it is arbitrary anyways). This paradox isn't a math problem. It's a comprehension problem. The math is the easy part. You can label the doors whatever you want, and make neat little graphs, but if you fail to understand the question your math will always be wrong. You aren't choosing from door A, B, and C, you are choosing between the unopened goat door, or the car door.
Face it, the host will 100% of the time open a "wrong" door, reducing your choices to two- (he ask if you want to switch or stay, so you get a 2nd choice scenario) which literally means that no matter what you do, your choice will have a 50/50 outcome. This is assuming a real life scenario, where only arbitrary choices are made.
>>690323787
see
>>690317657
The real world says you're stupid.
>>690322956
And you're completely right in doing so, I only mapped out all the redundant possibilities help people that were still having trouble realizing that switching helps your odds and that if you pick a goat door the first time regardless of which goat you might pick initially, switching from a goat will always get you the car.
>>690323376
Thank you for describing what I've already said numerous times, including in the post you quoted... That is indeed how the 66% scenario works, when the host consciously decides to pick a goat door.
Do you understand how we can prove their is no benefit to switching if the host randomly chooses a door which just happens to be a goat?
>>690323675
Then you know that 6 possibilities is irrelevant considering that 2 doors hold the same prize... a goat (even if they are not the same goat... its still always a shitty goat.)
>>690296648
lol the host can ony open a goat door, therefore chances are the one left is a car and you landed on a goat since u had 33% chance to start with to land on the car.
>>690323787
You're a fucking idiot... you know from the start that there are 2 goats and 1 car. You cant evver get 2 goats. So even if the host doesnt show you one of the goat doors, you know that one of the other doors has a goat
>>690296648
these are 2 different situations. the first is 1/3 but irrelevant since there is a 2/3 chance for a door to have a donkey so it's irrelevant what you pick. then the chances are 1/2, and you're asked, in a round about way, to select a door.
chance is always 50/50 when it matters
>>690323845
Are you trolling or have you just not read the thread?
You're entirely wrong. If the host removed one goat door at the start, you would be right - it's 50/50. However the host removes one goat door AFTER your initial selection, meaning the host is essentially removing one goat door from the remaining two doors you didn't pick. That is what impacts the probability.
IF you chose the correct door in the first place (1/3) you'll lose by switching.
IF you chose the wrong door in the first place (2/3), the host will remove one of the two alternate options by default and therefore you will win by switching.
Simple as that... this isn't opinion it's fact.
>>690324116
The problem was people were mistakenly combining the goats since they both made you lose to some how crap out it was a 50/50 chance after the host opened the door. It might have also been because people mistakenly though the host opened a door at random.
>>690323264
But the host doesn't choose randomly, that was the point which you seem to have replied to without knowing what the fuck is going on.
> entusiasm- A+
>current events (immediate)/social awareness- F
Lurk moar faggot. You didn't even read the post I replied to before replying to what I what I said.
Context can be a bitch.
>>690324448
But the problem states that he opens one of the doors, which means it's not a 3 choice scenario anymore, I don't even think you're allowed to pick the door the host opens anymore. So regardless of knowing other door will have a goat, as soon as the host opens it, you are left with a 1/2 choice scenario.
This is just what happens when you try to add math to a comprehension problem. The math will be correct, the real life scenario won't (you will have half chance for each).
guys listen it is called the monty hall paradox
lets say door 1 is the good shit
door 2 and door 3 are the not good shit
with me so far?
when you pick the first time, your chances of getting the not good shit is 66% and your chances of getting the good shit is 33%
so
when you pick , you most likely picked the wrong one, which is good, because now one of the other two doors will be removed, now you are stuck with the one that you picked (66% wrong) and the one that you did not pick (33% wrong) the mathematicaly correct choice would be to switch because your chances of etting it wrong the first time were larger than getting it right. in conclusion, 66%chance to get it wrong, pick a door, it is most likely wrong, one of the other doors is removed, leaving you with most likely wrong (the on you most likely picked) or most likely right (the one you didn't pick) switch to get the one that you didnt pick which is the one that is most likely right
>>690324076
Oh my fucking god. Are you b8? Look. The math behind the ignorant monty is flawed because they refuse to include the "void game" data. If monty shows you a goat in an other door, and you switch, your odds double. They Always double
>>690323511
So you posted without actually understanding what you were talking about.
Nothing new around here.
The host doesn't void anything in the sense you mean.
You.choose, then an option you didn't choose.is removed (that cannot be the prize).
Pretty fucking simple
>>690299271
It's only valid if the host knows for a fact he's going to show you a goat.
>>690317200
>smarter than you or I
>eluded to
>>690325066
he does know, he doesnt open a random door, he shows you one that is not right
>>690306902
Its that prisoner execution issue that bald science man was on about.
>>690324116
Well yeah, there a reason I said 6 outcomes from a choice of three with a switch option was bullshit....
Both goats may be shitty, but they exist.
Just name them to help your brain grasp the concept.
Goat A
Goat B
>>690324446
Are you a suicide attempt survivor?
>>690324998
I think you may be fundamentally retarded
the only thing that had an effect on the 2nd result, and actually not even (we'll get to that), is that you've selected a door.
NOW, since you get the option to change, you are essentially picking a door again.
THUS, you are picking between 2 doors, ie 50/50
>>690324949
this is the correct reply to all the trolls (and idiots) in this thread
>this is what happens when you try to add math to a comprehension problem
>>690325064
In the ignorant monty scenario... they disregard the results from monty picking the car. This is stupid because if monty picked a car, that means you did not pick a car. So the results are not truly 1/2. It becomes 1/3 and 2/3 again. Meaning monty consciously showing a goat or unconsciously, is irrelevant
>>690325312
Right. But it's only valid if he knows. If he doesn't know, it's a bit different.
>>690296824
/thread
>>690306902
No, the graph is EXACTLY correct. what the fuck are you on about?
>>690325625
No its not
Refer to ny post
>>690325589
>>690324704
>What the fuck does that have to do with the fact of the host not choosing randomly?
I answered this question. Believe it or not, some people are capable of moving beyond the initial OP question (which has been answered about a hundred times above) and are now discussing the impact of different scenarios. The guy posted some accurate numbers for this scenario (ignorant monty), you asked what it had to do with the host not choosing randomly, I answered.
Does this make sense now? Great>>690325044
>>690306941
>>690307406
the Aspbergers is strong with this one, Jesus Christ.
>>690325941
Thank you. I think its the op who I've been arguing with... and the op hasnt read the ignorant monty argument... so the op is arguing over nothing... hes not wrong or stupid or anything... just wasnt paying attention
>>690325044
"Ignorant Monty" sets out a specific scenario where a door is opened without the host having any knowledge of what's behind it, and it happens to be a goat. That is the blooming scenario, so of course "void games" where he picks the car aren't considered. That would be a different scenario!!
However in the case of void games where host chooses at random and can end up with the car door, the odds remain at 1/3 for the player upfront, and either increase to 1/2 (host reveals a goat) or drops to 0 (host reveals car). Understood?
>>690326381
Its not a different scenario. If the host were to randomly pick a goat, the odds are still 2/3 if you switch. But the results are ruined because you are either 1. Allowing monty to Pick the car, or 2. Ignoring the fact that if he picks the car. That door 1 was wrong...
>>690324446
THIS.
>>690322830
That's the dumbest argument I've ever heard in a monty hall thread, and I've made a lot of them.
> but what if I choose, and then I'm given the answer
Yep, you just said that you fucking retard
>>690325589
>In the ignorant monty scenario... they disregard the results from monty picking the car. This is stupid because if monty picked a car, that means you did not pick a car. So the results are not truly 1/2. It becomes 1/3 and 2/3 again. Meaning monty consciously showing a goat or unconsciously, is irrelevant
Ah but this is where it gets interesting!!
They disregard Monty picking the car purely because that's the scenario presented - he chooses at random and happens to pick a goat door. If you want to include the possibility of random choices with car picks (void), then the odds become 1/3 up front increasing to 1/2 if monty picks a goat vs 0 if monty picks a car. OK?
The interesting part is why concious vs unconscious matters in the monty hall vs monty fall scenarios, if we're assuming either way one of the two remaining doors is opened to reveal a goat. The answer is simple, if it's a concious decision the reveal impacts the population of two unselected doors only (the host makes a choice to reveal a goat door from these two). If the decision is random, then revealing a goat as an impact on the probability of the initially selected door being a car to the same extent as on the 3rd door. Aka odds of that random door being a goat are higher if you've already picked the car as the first door which is ineligible to be picked by host.. do you begin to see why this has an impact on the math?
>>690296648
I ran a simulation on this just for shit's and giggles.
Over a hundred thousand different trials, the average advantage you get from the using the switching strategy is only 10%.
>>690327043
I can't be bothered writing it again, so please read the below post;
>>690327371
You're welcome.
>>690296648
The correct answer is not to switch every time, but to switch 67% of the time. Possibly slightly more.
>>690296970
Jail-bait.
Stay classy anon.
