It's that time again faggots.

The stories and information posted here are artistic works of fiction and falsehood.

Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.

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Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.

You are currently reading a thread in /b/ - Random

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It's that time again faggots.

I'll help you out, you double your chance to win by switching

>>

Pick door 2, and stick with it. You have a ((1/2)*4) /3 chance of winning then.

>>

> INB4

I want a goat

The other door is a goats ass

I'm Muslim

I'm forgetting one, but an Autist will remind me soon enough.

>>

>>684325457

That's not how it works you idiot.

Pick.any door and stick with it and you have 2/3

>>

>>684325457

Did you actually make an equation to say 2/3?

Fuck me, you are one seriously autistic kid

>>

if you stay its a 1/3 chance if you switch its 2/3

>>

>>684324823

Thats just an illusion of the mind. Youre chances havent changed, its still 50/50 no matter how you look at it.

>>

>>684326346

You are correct.

Spray and laugh while retards sperg out shouting 50%

>>

>>684324823

switching your door increases your chances to 50% not 66% you fucking retard.

>>

>>684326407

no it's not its 100% true the same way 1+1=2

its a fact

>>

>>684326407

> choose 1/3

> 50/50

you see the problem there?

>>

>>684324823

i stick with it

>>

>>684326583

One door has a goat, one does not. Its 50%. If there were 100 doors, and he rebealed 98 doors, then your chances would be different, but with 3 doors, its 50/50

>>

>>684326793

Reread the picture faggot, 2 doors left.

>>

>>684326882

But that's wrong.

1/3 can never be 50%

If you.disagree, (which you will), explain how a 1/3 choice can have a 1/2 result.

> retardtip, it cant

>>

>>684327040

So was all the paint you ate as a kid tasty?

Hope it was, because it seems you're now retarded.

>>

>>684327790

3 doors.

1 is eliminated.

3-2=2 you dip

>>

>>684327984

> 3-2=2

I disagree

>>

>>684327984

I hope you're feeling as embarrassed as you should be

>>

Okay I just want to start off by saying that I think this is one big bait. I could be retarded, though.

? ? Goat

^ you can no longer pick it so you have two doors left

? ? x

^ you picked that one, but you don't know if that is the one with the car.

so forget you even picked a door in the first place, but are presented with only two doors.

so we have:

? ?

50/50

>>

>>684328679

Try that again starting with 3 question marks.

>>

>>684326407

He removes a goat so no

Starts as:

GGC

CGG

GCG

He removes a goat it turns to:

CG

CG

GC

You basically get to choose again and you have a better chance of getting the car

>>

>>684328891

? ? ? - 1/3 at the beginning

^ you pick this door

gameshow host opens door 3

YourDoor ? Goat

he has you switch or stay

? ? Goat - 50/50 because what is behind door 1 or 2 is unknown. it's a shot in the a dark.

>>

>>684328084

I meant 3-1, that was obvious

>>

>>684326407

not accounting for variable change go watch 21

>>

Read it yourself then you fucking retards https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

The trick is that the host always reveals a goat, and never a car. In other words, the host reveals information that can be exploited.

1/3 the car is behind your door, 2/3 the car is behind the other two doors. By eliminating one wrong door from the other two, the 2/3 chance gets squished into one door. In other words, by switching, it's as if you'd picked the two doors you didn't choose at the start.

Always switch, double your chances.

>>

>>684324823

OP even gave a hint for all u faggits

> I'll help you out, you double your chance to win by switching

but here is the deal, either you win or you'll loose

>luck

>>

>>684330804

Everyone here knows what it is, no need to bring in wikipedia.

what were discussing here is whether its true or not. I dont think it is because one door is eliminated no matter what so its always 50/50. If one door is always eliminated from a set of 3 doors, its door A or door B (or whichever doors arent open) so its 50/50

>>

I pick door number 3 since I always wanted a goat.

>>

Before he opens the door, ~33.33%

After he opens the door, 50.00%

They are two questions, one before a constant is established, and one after.

>>

>>684328988

No, it turns into

CG

GC

Same chances, you used the same thing twice

>>

>>684329358

You seem.to have forgotten about door 3?

Are you a shitty troll, or just retarded?

>>

>>684332807

You no longer worry about door three.

It has the goat. It was shown to you.

Just imagine it doesn't exist anymore.

You can't pick it. You fucking retard.

>>

>>684329846

Kind of obvious, except you are completely wrong.

>2/3 odds if you switch.

This is fact

>>

Switch.

>>

>>684331387

Just like lotto.

You.either win or lose, so surely everyone that has a lotto ticket has a 50% chance to win right?

>>

>>684333119

except no. that's wrong. now that one door is out of the question, it can be completely disregarded. you now have a 50/50 chance that the car is behind the door you originally picked. this is actually a completely separate choice, and the first choice has no bearing on the outcome of the second choice.

>>

There's a 2/3 chance you picked a goat. So switching does better your chances of getting the car.

>>

there's two questions posed here

overall probability of picking the car is 1/3, and the goat 2/3 before any choices are made

after he picks a door, you have only two choices which are established as a car or a goat

you now have 1/2 chance of picking a car or a goat

>>684333437

also this is a really stupid false equivalency, there are two doors, not two lottery tickets

>>

>>684333614

Except with a 2/3 chance you originally picked a goat it's not 50/50. You still most likely want to switch.

>>

>>684334026

but it doesn't matter because the gameshow host always picks a goat.

so 2 doors, what is behind them is unknown.

50/50

>>

>>684334259

Switching gives you a 50/50 chance, staying remains 1/3.

>>

>>684334026

A host is going to pick a false door no matter what so its better to just think of it as a 50/50 chance from the get go since no matter what you pick, one door will be eliminated.

>>

>>684334846

The fact that he took away a goat does not change the fact that the initial choice is 2/3 that you got a goat, therefore keeping the choice is still 2/3 chance that it's a goat.

>>

When you pick a door, the probability you picked the car is 1/3.

When the host opens a door and reveals a goat, the probability you picked the car is 1/3.

If you do not switch doors, the probability you picked the car is 1/3.

If you switch doors, you cannot switch to the door the host opened, so the probability you are picking the car is 1/2.

If you never switch, your probability never changes from 1/3.

>>

Switching is the only logically correct answer.

This is literally proven. I can't believe that some people are actually trying to argue otherwise.

I sincerely hope they are trolling.

>>

>>684335575

If you switch doors your chances are 1/2. So where is the other 1/2? The other door.

>>

>>684335645

Youre probably a 12 year old who just thinks its right because game theory talked about it. If thats what youre doing, then actually think for yourself for once in your life and stop trusting what others say

>>

The key is that the door they open is not random.

When you pick the first round, you don't have any idea what is behind any of the doors, so no matter what you do, you have a one in three chance of picking the winning door, and a two in three chance of picking a dud.

Then they open a door. BUT, they arenevergoing to open a winning door. So there are three basic ways events can unfold in the second round.

Route one: you picked the winner in the first round, and they open one of the two wrong doors you didn't pick. Odds of this are one in three, since that's the odds you picked the right door.

Route two: you picked wrong door #1, and they open the other wrong door, leaving your wrong door and the winning door closed.

Route three: you picked wrong wrong door #2, and they open wrong door #1, leaving your door and the winning door closed.

This means that in round two, there are two scenarios where you picked wrong the first time, and only one scenario where you picked right. In other words, if you switch doors, one in three times you will be switching from the winner to a loser, and two in three times you'll be switching from a wrong door to the winner

>>

>>684336008

Yes, that's exactly what my post says?

>>

>>684336233

What gives you that idea? It doesn't take a genius to figure it out.

You just spouted a bunch of ad hominem for no apparent reason. Grow up.

>>

>>684324823

1/2 > 1/3 so switching is correct

>>

>>684336233

>stop trusting what others say

you say that like it's an opinion and isn't fact.

It literally is a fact that switching betters your odds, there's no argument about it

>>

>>684324823

>do you want to switch doors?

sure. I have a car already, and I don't want to pay taxes etc. on the new one either. At least if I get a goat I can try for milk or petting zoo $$$.

>>

>>684336492

So its 50/50. If you switch and the door has a 1/2 chance, then that means the door you were just at had a 1/2 chance as well.

>>

>>684331586

All we can do is show you the math. We can't understand it for you. You don't need to understand everything in life. You just need to be smart enough to identify people who do.

>>

>>684336967

Nope, you chose the door BEFORE the host revealed the other door.

Therefore you chose the door when there was a 1/3 chance.

>>

>>684336967

The door you originally picked has a 1/3 chance, not a 1/2 chance.

Just because the host shows you new information doesn't chance the original odds,

I mean, think how fucking stupid you must be:

Me: "Hey, I'm flipping a coin, what are odds its heads?"

You: "50%"

I flip the coin, it's heads.

You: "No wait, the odds were 100%".

>>

>>684336233

Do you also happen to believe the earth is flat?

>>

>>684337374

This.

>>684337137

And this all the way. You can't argue with the numbers, you have to deal with them. If you can't understand and wrap your head around it that's just your problem and you have to deal with it.

>>

>>684331586

why do you think a retard on /b/ is going to come up with a better proof than Mathematicians, Statisticians, and Computer Scientists have been able to over the course of decades?

>>

The host is going to open a goat door either way. By picking one and sticking with it you have a 1/3 chance. By picking door 1 with the intent to switch you're chance is 2/3. You are by picking door 1 with the intent to switch you are essentially choosing door 2 and 3 (since you will switch off of one). The host will show you which of 2 or 3 is a loser, you keep the other.

Tl;dr: pick one door with the intent to switch is the same as picking both other doors.

>>

It's frustrating that people have such a hard time trying to understand this.

>>

>>684337374

That story has nothing to do with what i said. In the instance you made up theres a 50/50 chance and i say its 100% after the answer is revealed? What does that have to do with anything.

>>

>>684335575

This is as clear as it can get. If someone still doesn't get it, and still refuses to believe the mathematicians, then fuck'em. They can also continue to believe 911 was an inside job and climate change is a conspiracy.

>>

>>684338190

Seems like it's just one guy trying his hardest to defend his ignorance honestly.

>>

>>684338367

Because you implied that when you chose the door originally with the odds of 1/3 the original odds changed when the host revealed the door.

The odds are still 1/3 because you made the choice without that knowledge.

>>

>>684338367

You had a 33.3% chance.

You are saying after the host reveals a goat you now have a 50% chance.

Your odds don't increase just because you receive new information.

My example is literally what you're doing - you are trying to adjust your original probability based on new information.

>>

>>684338448

True

>>

>>684336967

If you're not trolling then I suggest you learn how science works and conduct a simple experiment. Take three cards, one heart and two spades. Pick one, then have a friend turn over one of the spades. Stick with your original card and record how many times out of 100 you got the heart. Then repeat except this time switch all 100 times. Compare. learn. Win.

>>

This is so fucking stupid. The new information is 100% important because there is a 2nd part to the situation. You're asked TWICE which door you want to open. It would stay 1/3 if you were forced to open the door you chose at the very beginning, after the host opens his door.

The host opens a door, relieving that door from play. You now have 2 doors you can open. Because one door is no longer in play, and what is behind the other two doors is unknown, it is a 50%/50% chance.

>>

>>684339369

God damn thank you.

>>

>>684339133

If you're too lazy to do this then just think about it this way. If you never switch, you only win if your original pick was correct (1/3). If you always switch, then you only lose if your original pick was correct(1/3 to lose = 2/3 win)

>>

>>684338367

There are 1,000,000,000 doors, and one car.

The host opens 999,999,998 doors, all goats.

This leaves two remaining doors.

You believe that there's no benefit to you switching doors, because you had a 50/50 chance to fucking nail it out of one billion choices.

Let that sink in.

>>

>>684339369

You have three options. Do this javascript:quote('684339133');

Understand this javascript:quote('684339643');

Or reject the knowledge of man and go with your gut.

>>

>>684340114

Here is an idea, get a fucking functional browser.

>>

>>684339993

Boom, headshot.

>>

>>684340114

What the fuck are you doing nigger

>>

>>684339993

You don't have a 50/50 chance when it comes to a billion, but after you remove all of those and leave two, yes.

>>

>>684340114

>reject the knowledge of man and go with your gut

Kek

>>

>>684339993

Thats changing the scenario completely.

Me: whats the probability of rolling a 6

You: 1 in 6

Me: *pulls out 20 sided di from nowhere*

Me: wrong its 1 in 20 dumbass

Thats pretty much what your made up story is, we arent talking about a million doors, that changes the probability completely

>>

>>684326407

actually it's a bit better than 50/50

>>

>>684324823>>684325729

>>684326407

>>684326882

>>684334259

OP is right.

First choice: You either pick a door with a goat or a car. 2/3 chance of picking goats.

Second choice: Switch while having picked a door with a goat gives you a car, and you will have a goat behind your door 2/3 of the time. So you double your chances if you switch.

>>

>>684340789

1/2 chance of picking a goat, not goats.

The host removed half of the goats (which is one)

There is now one goat.

50/50

>>

>>684340575

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

>>

>>684340968

But you don't know he is going to remove one of the options until after you made your choice.

>>

>>684341004

I think you're a retard.

>>

>people are still trying to argue with the numbers

>>

>>684340968

No, 2/3 chance of picking a goat in the first choice.

>>

>>684341142

That doesn't matter. It actually helps you.

>>

Consider the events C1, C2 and C3 indicating the car is behind respectively door 1,2 or 3. All these 3 events have probability 1/3.

The player initially choosing door 1 is described by the event X1. As the first choice of the player is independent of the position of the car, also the conditional probabilities are P(Ci|X1)=1/3. The host opening door 3 is described by H3. For this event it holds:

P(H3|C1,X1)=1/2

P(H3|C2,X1)=1

P(H3|C3,X1)=0

Then, if the player initially selects door 1, and the host opens door 3, the conditional probability of winning by switching is

P(C2|H3,X1) = \frac{P(H3|C2,X1)P(C2|X1)}{P(H3|X1)}

=\frac{P(H3|C2,X1)P(C2|X1)}{P(H3|C1,X1)P(C1|X1)+P(H3|C2,X1)P(C2|X1)+P(H3|C3,X1)P(C3|X1)}

=\frac{P(H3|C2,X1)}{P(H3|C1,X1)+P(H3|C2,X1)+P(H3|C3,X1)} =\frac{1}{1/2+1+0} =\frac 23

>>

>>684328988

u forgot to account for the times when you choose a car at first, so u have to make a list where the car is eliminated

>>

>>684340575

Here it is explained with pictures. If you still don't understand. Sorry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRUxbzJZ9Y

>>

>>684341349

Yes, but he removes a goat.

Your second chance, you have a 50/50 shot.

>>

>>684341555

No, you objectively don't.

>>

>>684341555

Yes, but the second probability is related to the first one. You can't disregard the first choice made.

>>

>>684340575

You retard, you don't have 50% chances with 3 doors either! 3,4,5 1billion doesn't change it! Switch!

>>

>>684340758

You're playing the red game.

You pick a door.

The host then asks you if you want to play the blue game instead.

You say no, because you're retarded.

>>

>>684331586

But you had a 1/3 chance of picking a car in the first place, so you should fucking switch because that means the other door has a 2/3 chance of the car, you have a 1/3 chance of the car and the door that was opened now has a 0/3 chance of the car

>>

>>684341912

ding. this guy can do basic 6th grade math.

>>684341555

this guy can't.

>>

>>684324823

>implying i want the car

>>

>>684342249

You cannot put it simpler than this.

If you don't understand after this, you may as well just give up.

>>

Pick a door, 1/3 chance of getting a car.

Other door is shown to have a goat in, that door is out of the question.

Switching means you are selecting another door based on the fact that you have 2 doors to pick from.

If you didnt have the goat appear then all 3 doors would have been viable.

You make a new choice, so a new chance is made, which is 1/2

>>

>>684340575

Please just fucking kill yourself and do the world a favor.

>>

>>684341398

or you could just say:

switch=66.666% win

don't switch=33.333%

>>

>>684342770

not him but

>hurrr cant do something most people cant

>just kill yourself

you're the idiot

>>

>>684342770

I have chosen a number between 1 and 10.

I want you to try to guess it, so please pick a number.

I will not cheat.

Once you have chosen your number, please post a reply with the number you've chosen.

You're about to get fucking schooled.

>>

>>684342997

You should kill yourself

>>

For fucks sake.

OP here.

I've been on the phone for the last hour.

Why are you still arguing. I told you in the OP, that switching doubled your chance of winning.

Every week I pill thus shit, and it never stops being entertaining.

>>

>>684343360

Because there are always fucking mongs who can't figure out simple probability.

>>

>>684341398

OR...

Q=1+2+4+5-12=faggot

YOU=Q

>>

>>684343316

Meant to post for the other guy: >>684340575

>>

>>684341555

1/3=1/2

How can you fucks be this stupid?

>>

>>684343316

6

I really wanna understand if I'm wrong, but I just don't see it.

>>

>>684342560

I am a fucking idiot

Picks: Switch:

Car Goat

Goat Car

Goat Car

The mistake is treating the switch as a 50/50 from a players perspective

>>

>>684343892

Okay, I now reveal that these were NOT the numbers I selected:

1

3

4

5

7

8

9

10

Would you like to stick with your original prediction of 6, or would you like to switch to the number 2?

By your logic, this is a 50/50 that the number you chose (6) is correct.

>>

>>684341485

>>684341485

please everyone just look at this fucking video and stop arguing.

/thread

>>

2 out of 3 times you will pick a goat initially.

If you pick a goat (probability 2/3) then the host will take away the other goat this means that 2 out of 3 times the car is behind the other door and therefore you have a 2/3 chance of picking a car if you switch.

>>

>>684344337

Good explanation

>>

For all the idiots who think that is 50%, go and study some conditional probability and do the math

let cw: chose winning door at first

cl: chose losing door at first

ow: other door is the winning door (after the host reveals a donkey or whatever)

the probabilities of cw=1/3, cl=2/3

Let p(a|b) be the probability of "a given b", as we have a full partition, by total probabilities:

p(ow) = p(ow|cw)*p(cw) + p(ow|cl)*p(cl)

note that p(ow|cw) is obviously 0, and p(ow|cl) =1

then p(ow)= 0*1/3 + 1*2/3 = 2/3

It's clear that p(ow)= 2/3 > probabilty that I chose the door right at first, therefore you should change and it's 2/3 not 1/2 , this is based in the suposition that the host knows where the prize is and his revelation is not at random

Prove me wrong

protip: you can't

>>

>>684344337

This would work better if you said 1 to 10000000000000

>>

>>684344896

It would, but he still won't win 50% of the time in a 1-10 game. At most he'll win 10% of the time, easily proving the odds are not 50/50.

>>

1 2 3

I pick 1

2 is not the number

I switch my door to 3

I get car. This shit is easy guys, I have never bought a car in my life. Thanks Obama

>>

>>684324823

>his is one big bait. I could be retarded, though.

>? ? Goat

>^ you can no longer pick it so you have two doors left

here are two possible scenarios:

- If my initial choice is correct ( 33.3 % chance ) , the driver opens any of the other two and I change to another and lose .

- If my initial choice is wrong ( 66.7 % chance ) , I'm in one that is not winning , the driver can only open the one that is not winning and changing or yes change to having the prize.

That is the decision to switch to that door do not know a priori what are now, reverses the odds! Now, if my initial choice is correct ( 33.3 % ) I lose, but if my initial choice is wrong ( 66.7 % ) won !

>>

>>684324823

> implying your odds change because you know the outcome of an option that was removed

Lrn2probability

>>

>>684325535

this.

/thread

>>

>>684345778

Sexiest bait I've seen in a while.

2/10 because I replied.

>>

>>684324823

Studied this the first year at my uni during a statistic class. Pretty easy to understand. You should always change door

>>

I think the guy I was playing the game with (>>684343892) left once he realized what was about to happen.

>>

>>684324823

It's 50/50. If you pick a goat, then you are shown the other goat. This gives two cases where if you switch, you win. If you pick the car, you are shown either of the two goats. This gives two caes where if you switch you lost. Voila! Your odds are 50/50.

>>

>>684346941

no im still here

playing tf2

>>

>>684324823

you guys are so funny. anyone thats taken basic stats knows the answer to this question. yet all of you guys want to debate hur dur pseudointelligence.

>>

I just got it. The host has to pick a door that wasn't picked by you. Which means it's less likely for the door you picked to have the car, rather than more likely that the one you didn't pick has the car.

>>

>>684347109

Are you actually fucking stupid?

>>

>>684347109

it's not 50/50 because the door that the host picked is NOT random. it's explicitly NOT the door that you picked

>>

>>684347235

do you happen to be playing on pl_borneo?

>>

>>684347983

don't think so. was in a comp game. everyone found a matchmaking pass. guess valve is pushing for people to invite more

>>

>>684348128

i wanted one of those fucking passes, but i really fell out of the comp scene a lot. i just played 3 seasons on ugc gold but i just got bored of most vidya. i asked if you were playing on borneo because i am and there's a guy with the name newfriends.

>>

>>684348584

do you want the pass? ill give. i already have one.

>>

I switch

>>

>>684342303

There are 3 possible outcomes. If you never switch, you only win if you picked the correct answer on the first try. (1/3 wins)

If you always switch, then you can only LOSE if you picked the correct door the first time (1/3 loses). If you switch, you win 2/3.

>>

>>684342997

I don't blame anyone for not getting this right away. But when it has been dumbed down to the degree that it has in this thread, and they still CHOOSE to not get it, they need to die.

>>

>>684344674

Between this and the video, anyone still arguing is a troll or a fucking moron.

THE END.

>>

>>684347290

good response, i like how nowhere in it was a cohesive answer. you're like a retard that shits in a symposium and heckles the speakers.

>>

>>684351622

theres no answer because i wasnt answering OP's question.

>you're like a retard that shits in a symposium and heckles the speakers

good response, i like how nowhere in it was a cohesive answer

>>

I might be retarded, but I don't think I understand this clearly yet. This is how I perceive it.

Three options, but you know one of the options will be eliminated.

So, already before you pick, there is a 50/50 chance due to there only being two possible end results.

Let's say it's GCG. Either I pick a goat, or I pick the car. If I don't pick the car straight away, I still have one more chance.

Say I pick door 1. Host reveals door 3, which is a goat. Host says I can switch doors if I want to.

Then it is a 50/50 chance that I will get the car. Host still hasn't revealed door 1 (from what I understand), so I can't instantly know that door 2 is the car.

Or is the car revealed automatically if I pick door 2 instantly?

>>

>>684334743

No, because it's always a 50/50. A goat is revealed no matter what. You pick in the start.

>>

Why am I not surprised that so many here are too stupid to solve a simple logical problem or even understand it, when it is explained?

>>

>>684353868

One can only hope that it's trolling, not the results of the public schooling education system.

>>

So regardless what you pick, the host will -always- show you a goat on another door? If that is the case, it's always going to be 50/50. It doesn't really matter what door you pick, you will always have even odds.

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